My analysis of local by-elections of 18/1/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows:

Bolton MBC, Hulton: Conservative 1455 (49.4%, +16.7%), Labour 1179 (40.1%, +3.0%), UKIP 190 (6.5%, -18.0%), Liberal Democrats 67 (2.3%, -0.2%), Green 52 (1.8%, -1.5%). Conservative gain from Labour, all changes are since 2016.

Bournemouth UA, Throop & Muscliff: Independent (Kieron Wilson) 533 (31.3%), Conservative 511 (30.0%, +6.4%), Labour 402 (23.6%, +14.3%), Independent (Peter Lucas) 117 (6.9%, -6.1%*), Liberal Democrats 107 (6.3%), Green 33 (1.9%, -6.3%). [UKIP did not stand]. Independent gain from previous Independent. *Compared to Peter's performance as a UKIP candidate for the same ward in 2015.

Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: Conservative 1604 (53.0%, +5.2%), Labour 749 (24.8%, +4.0%), Liberal Democrats 671 (22.2%, +3.7%). [UKIP did not stand]. All changes are since 2016.

Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawreth: Liberal Democrats 794 (77.0%, +16.6%), Conservative 237 (23.0%, +6.4%). [Residents and Labour did not stand].

The Conservative gain of Hulton from Labour is clearly due to a collapse in the UKIP vote; Hulton ward is normally reliable for the Conservatives although it has never been safe. Labour won it in 2015 and 2016 but will be lucky if they and not the Conservatives capture it this year. Like many ex-mining areas it has been trending inexorably to the Conservatives.

Kieron Wilson's gain of Throop & Muscliff, widely expected to tip to the Conservatives in this by-election after the resignation of popular independent Anne Rey, is a big surprise especially as his winning vote total (533) is much better than his own performance in the entire Bournemouth East constituency last year (just 304 votes!). He was allied to the same Independent "group" Anne Rey belonged to which helped him prevent a Conservative gain. The Green candidate, Jane Bull, wife of Bournemouth's sole Green councillor Simon Bull, found herself stymied by the appearance of a Liberal Democrat candidate as well as the tight race between Kieron and the Conservatives' candidate, Hazel Allen.

On paper, Downhall & Rawreth, consisting of two agricultural villages with preserved historic farmhouses just outside Southend-on-Sea, sounds like a stereotypically rock-solid Conservative ward. In fact it regularly obtains excellent Liberal Democrat performances at local election time, due to the excellent organisation they have in this ward. In the by-election the absence of Labour and the Residents' Association only sought to solidify the Liberal Democrat hold even further.

Like many suburbs and commuter towns, Newport Pagnell has a "split opposition problem" which benefits the Conservatives, due to pockets of Labour and Liberal Democrat strength. This by-election proved to be no exception, and the absence of UKIP and Green candidates made no real difference. The election results in South Suffolk in 1997 and 2001 bear testament to this, as do the election results in Canterbury in the same years.












Comments

  1. Anonymous21 January 2018 at 13:24

    The UKIP collapse will likely be a continuing trend throughout the year. The odds of the party existing by the end of the year are slim; they are broke and supposedly losing 1000 members a month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alan B21 January 2018 at 21:15

      The trend has already started, and their disappearance will now only have a limited effect nationally.

      Delete

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