My analysis of by-elections from the first fortnight of January 2018
Readers, the results of local by-elections in Britain in the first two weeks of 2018 (there was only one last week) were as follows:
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Labour 709 (59.8%, +6.4%), Conservative 381 (32.2%, -14.4%), UKIP 57 (4.8%), Liberal Democrats 20 (1.7%), Green 18 (1.5%). Labour gain from Conservative (previous results are based on averages; this ward's representation was split in 2015).
Kent CC, Birchington & Thanet Rural: Conservative 2534 (56.6%, +6.1%), Labour 856 (19.1%, +2.9%), Liberal Democrats 561 (12.5%, +0.5%), UKIP 357 (8.0%, -7.8%), Green 169 (3.8%, -1.8%).
Thanet BC, Thanet Villages: Conservative 620 (49.3%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 313 (24.9%), Labour 206 (16.4%, +5.9%), Green 66 (5.2%, -7.0%), Independent Smith 52 (4.1%, -22.9%). Conservative hold (ward with split representation in 2015).
Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural: Conservative 1745 (60.0%,-10.9%), Labour 925 (31.8%, +13.9%), Green 237 (8.2%, -3.1%).
Wyre DC, Preesall: Conservative 930 (55.3%, -9.9%), Labour 753 (44.7%, +9.9%).
Typically for January by-elections, the turnout was very low, dropping below 20% in some cases. Unusually for the Isle of Thanet, which nearly three years ago elected the first and only UKIP-controlled council in the UK, the Liberal Democrats mounted a strong campaign and finished a good second, in an area otherwise demographically unfriendly for the Liberal Democrats. The absence of UKIP did not help the Independent Sonya Smith, whose performance deteriorated even compared to 2015, but it did help the Conservatives substantially. Independents who perform poorly on the first attempt often perform worse on subsequent attempts in elections if they stay Independent, although some exceptions exist.
The Labour gain in Borehamwood Cowley Hill was a foregone conclusion, especially with the London commuter belt, which Hertsmere is part of, turning slightly against the Conservatives. Rising rail fares exacerbate this problem; rail fares are increasing by 13% on average this year whilst railway bosses continue to receive multi-million pound payouts.
Even in rural areas Labour are achieving swings of sorts against the Conservatives, especially north of the Humber. Swings of 12.4% and 9.9% to Labour were recorded in both local by-elections in Lancashire, despite rural areas being less prone to large swings even in game-changing elections and despite both divisions being safely Conservative.
On another note, I would like to state that the Conservatives were talking greenwash in their environmental speech-no party that supports fracking, fails to support clean and renewable energy, and is fundamentally tied to big business can genuinely stand up for the environment, even if they promote reusable non-plastic coffee cups. Remember well that only the Green Party can promise a green future and protect our planet for future generations, and that green politics also cares about people as well as the planet.
Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Labour 709 (59.8%, +6.4%), Conservative 381 (32.2%, -14.4%), UKIP 57 (4.8%), Liberal Democrats 20 (1.7%), Green 18 (1.5%). Labour gain from Conservative (previous results are based on averages; this ward's representation was split in 2015).
Kent CC, Birchington & Thanet Rural: Conservative 2534 (56.6%, +6.1%), Labour 856 (19.1%, +2.9%), Liberal Democrats 561 (12.5%, +0.5%), UKIP 357 (8.0%, -7.8%), Green 169 (3.8%, -1.8%).
Thanet BC, Thanet Villages: Conservative 620 (49.3%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 313 (24.9%), Labour 206 (16.4%, +5.9%), Green 66 (5.2%, -7.0%), Independent Smith 52 (4.1%, -22.9%). Conservative hold (ward with split representation in 2015).
Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural: Conservative 1745 (60.0%,-10.9%), Labour 925 (31.8%, +13.9%), Green 237 (8.2%, -3.1%).
Wyre DC, Preesall: Conservative 930 (55.3%, -9.9%), Labour 753 (44.7%, +9.9%).
Typically for January by-elections, the turnout was very low, dropping below 20% in some cases. Unusually for the Isle of Thanet, which nearly three years ago elected the first and only UKIP-controlled council in the UK, the Liberal Democrats mounted a strong campaign and finished a good second, in an area otherwise demographically unfriendly for the Liberal Democrats. The absence of UKIP did not help the Independent Sonya Smith, whose performance deteriorated even compared to 2015, but it did help the Conservatives substantially. Independents who perform poorly on the first attempt often perform worse on subsequent attempts in elections if they stay Independent, although some exceptions exist.
The Labour gain in Borehamwood Cowley Hill was a foregone conclusion, especially with the London commuter belt, which Hertsmere is part of, turning slightly against the Conservatives. Rising rail fares exacerbate this problem; rail fares are increasing by 13% on average this year whilst railway bosses continue to receive multi-million pound payouts.
Even in rural areas Labour are achieving swings of sorts against the Conservatives, especially north of the Humber. Swings of 12.4% and 9.9% to Labour were recorded in both local by-elections in Lancashire, despite rural areas being less prone to large swings even in game-changing elections and despite both divisions being safely Conservative.
On another note, I would like to state that the Conservatives were talking greenwash in their environmental speech-no party that supports fracking, fails to support clean and renewable energy, and is fundamentally tied to big business can genuinely stand up for the environment, even if they promote reusable non-plastic coffee cups. Remember well that only the Green Party can promise a green future and protect our planet for future generations, and that green politics also cares about people as well as the planet.
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