Political correlations within the Australian same-sex marriage referendum
On Tuesday, Australia voted in favour of same-sex marriage by a margin of 61.6% to 38.4%, which was celebrated not only by Australians but by progressive people around the world, even if they did not identify as LGBTIQA+.
However, as with a referendum on the same issue in Ireland in 2015, the divide between secular, urban communities and rural, more religious communities was very stark indeed. Several electorates with high proportions of residents born overseas also voted against, notably the division of Bruce, where over 50% of residents were born overseas, where nearly 50% were born in a non-English speaking country, and where over 50% of residents speak a language other than English at home. Bruce voted against same-sex marriage by a margin of 46.9% to 53.1%. It is not a safe electorate either-it is marginal (held by Labor)
Of the 17 electorates which voted against same-sex marriage in that survey, the majority were Labor-held, and often very safely so (Kennedy was held by Katter's Australian Party, and of those 17 only the electorates of Bennelong, Banks, Mitchell, Groom, and Maranoa elected Liberal MPs in 2016) , and the majority of them were not rural either. The division of Blaxland, which recorded the lowest proportion of voters in favour of same-sex marriage in that survey (26%), is an urban, working-class and solidly Labor electorate. Rural voters were overall less in favour but not significantly less so than urban voters, although affluent, secular, and professional urban voters were far more in favour than poorer urban voters. Of particular interest, former Australian PM Tony Abbott's safely Liberal electorate of Warringah voted in favour by a 3-1 margin despite Tony's strong opposition to it as a conservative Roman Catholic.
Is there a correlation between the Labor vote and support for same-sex marriage/Liberal-National vote and opposition to same-sex marriage?
The answer is no. However, there is a strong correlation between the Green vote and support for same-sex marriage. The 10 electorates with the highest level of support for The Greens at the last Australian election in 2016 all voted in support of same-sex marriage by margins well above the national average. These 10 electorates are Melbourne (the only lower house seat in Australia with a Green MP, namely Adam Bandt), Batman (once the safest Labor electorate in Australia),Wills, Higgins (the only Liberal electorate the Australian Greens came within striking distance of capturing on the two candidate preferred vote in 2016), Melbourne Ports (a 3-way marginal), Grayndler, Gellibrand, Richmond (Australia's closest answer to Britain's Stroud in that respect), Brisbane (the only one of these ten not in Victoria or New South Wales; Brisbane is the state capital of Queensland), and Kooyong. In the electorate of Melbourne, more than five voters out of six who responded to the survey supported same-sex marriage, matched only by the electorate of Sydney. All the electorates where support for same-sex marriage was 80% or greater had higher Green votes than average. Conversely, the 17 electorates which voted against same-sex marriage accounted for two of only nine lost deposits for the Greens in 2016 (in Australia, candidates for the lower house have to pay a $1000 deposit, which is returned if the 1st preferences exceed 4%), and in each case the Green vote was significantly below average. New South Wales has a "bible belt" which is usually Labor and also has strong support for the right-wing Christian Democrats.
A similar referendum in Ireland showed a stark urban/rural divide above anything else. Given that this factor was not present in this same-sex marriage referendum, what were the dividing lines?
Religious affiliation, first and foremost. Electorates with high proportions of Roman Catholics voted either against or only narrowly in favour, as did electorates with high proportions of Muslim voters (and of course, electorates with both of these factors, like Callow). Rural New South Wales has a very high church attendance, especially compared to secular Sydney. The more secular the electorate, the higher the for vote.
Prosperity was also a decisive factor in the Australian same-sex marriage referendum, although not to the extent religious affiliation or lack thereof was. The wealthier urban electorates, such as Wentworth and North Sydney (neither of which have ever been won by Labor in Australia) voted in favour by margins much higher than the national average. Working-class electorates were less supportive overall, irrespective of their ethnic make-up, as were many rural electorates with below-average median household incomes.
And finally on a different note...
Speaking of Australian politics, Queensland will have its state election next week, and there are good chances to make a permanent crack in the two party system there.
However, as with a referendum on the same issue in Ireland in 2015, the divide between secular, urban communities and rural, more religious communities was very stark indeed. Several electorates with high proportions of residents born overseas also voted against, notably the division of Bruce, where over 50% of residents were born overseas, where nearly 50% were born in a non-English speaking country, and where over 50% of residents speak a language other than English at home. Bruce voted against same-sex marriage by a margin of 46.9% to 53.1%. It is not a safe electorate either-it is marginal (held by Labor)
Of the 17 electorates which voted against same-sex marriage in that survey, the majority were Labor-held, and often very safely so (Kennedy was held by Katter's Australian Party, and of those 17 only the electorates of Bennelong, Banks, Mitchell, Groom, and Maranoa elected Liberal MPs in 2016) , and the majority of them were not rural either. The division of Blaxland, which recorded the lowest proportion of voters in favour of same-sex marriage in that survey (26%), is an urban, working-class and solidly Labor electorate. Rural voters were overall less in favour but not significantly less so than urban voters, although affluent, secular, and professional urban voters were far more in favour than poorer urban voters. Of particular interest, former Australian PM Tony Abbott's safely Liberal electorate of Warringah voted in favour by a 3-1 margin despite Tony's strong opposition to it as a conservative Roman Catholic.
Is there a correlation between the Labor vote and support for same-sex marriage/Liberal-National vote and opposition to same-sex marriage?
The answer is no. However, there is a strong correlation between the Green vote and support for same-sex marriage. The 10 electorates with the highest level of support for The Greens at the last Australian election in 2016 all voted in support of same-sex marriage by margins well above the national average. These 10 electorates are Melbourne (the only lower house seat in Australia with a Green MP, namely Adam Bandt), Batman (once the safest Labor electorate in Australia),Wills, Higgins (the only Liberal electorate the Australian Greens came within striking distance of capturing on the two candidate preferred vote in 2016), Melbourne Ports (a 3-way marginal), Grayndler, Gellibrand, Richmond (Australia's closest answer to Britain's Stroud in that respect), Brisbane (the only one of these ten not in Victoria or New South Wales; Brisbane is the state capital of Queensland), and Kooyong. In the electorate of Melbourne, more than five voters out of six who responded to the survey supported same-sex marriage, matched only by the electorate of Sydney. All the electorates where support for same-sex marriage was 80% or greater had higher Green votes than average. Conversely, the 17 electorates which voted against same-sex marriage accounted for two of only nine lost deposits for the Greens in 2016 (in Australia, candidates for the lower house have to pay a $1000 deposit, which is returned if the 1st preferences exceed 4%), and in each case the Green vote was significantly below average. New South Wales has a "bible belt" which is usually Labor and also has strong support for the right-wing Christian Democrats.
A similar referendum in Ireland showed a stark urban/rural divide above anything else. Given that this factor was not present in this same-sex marriage referendum, what were the dividing lines?
Religious affiliation, first and foremost. Electorates with high proportions of Roman Catholics voted either against or only narrowly in favour, as did electorates with high proportions of Muslim voters (and of course, electorates with both of these factors, like Callow). Rural New South Wales has a very high church attendance, especially compared to secular Sydney. The more secular the electorate, the higher the for vote.
Prosperity was also a decisive factor in the Australian same-sex marriage referendum, although not to the extent religious affiliation or lack thereof was. The wealthier urban electorates, such as Wentworth and North Sydney (neither of which have ever been won by Labor in Australia) voted in favour by margins much higher than the national average. Working-class electorates were less supportive overall, irrespective of their ethnic make-up, as were many rural electorates with below-average median household incomes.
And finally on a different note...
Speaking of Australian politics, Queensland will have its state election next week, and there are good chances to make a permanent crack in the two party system there.
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