My analysis of by-elections from 23/11/17
Readers, the results of local by-elections in Britain from Thursday 23rd November 2017 were as follows:
Cotswold DC, Grumbolds Ash & Avening: Conservative 420 (64.7%, -7.8%), Liberal Democrats 136 (21.0%, -7.6%), Labour 93 (14.3%).
Dover BC, St Margaret's at Cliffe: Conservative 750 (70.5%,+19.2%), Labour 314 (29.5%, +7.3%).
Herefordshire UA, Bishops Frome & Cradley: Green 471 (45.3%, +13.9%), Conservative 299 (28.8%, -39.8%), Liberal Democrats 251 (24.1%), Labour 19 (1.8%). Green gain from Conservative.
Leicester UA, Eyres Monsell: Labour 556 (53.2%, +9.8%), Liberal Democrats 320 (30.6%, +23.6%), Conservative 170 (16.3%, +0.2%).
Neath Port Talbot UA, Bryncoch South: Plaid Cymru 525 (49.5%, +3.3%), Labour 306 (28.8%, +5.1%), Conservative 105 (9.9%, -8.4%), Liberal Democrats 92 (8.7%, +3.0%), UKIP 33 (3.1%).
Perth & Kinross UA, Perth City South: SNP 1780 (32.1%, +6.4%), Conservative 1734 (31.2%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 1597 (28.8%, -5.9%), Labour 314 (5.7%, -0.7%), Green 102 (1.8%), Independent 25 (0.5%). Conservative hold at final stage.
South Lanarkshire UA, Rutherglen Central & North: Labour 1173 (38.5%, +7.5%), SNP 836 (27.4%, -12.0%), Liberal Democrats 554 (18.2%, +8.9%), Conservative 368 (12.1%, -4.2%), Green 88 (2.9%, -1.1%), UKIP 28 (0.9%). Labour hold at stage 3.
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Labour 727 (54.7%, +8.9%), Conservative 409 (30.8%, +3.7%), Independent (Noor) 156 (11.7%), Liberal Democrats 37 (2.8%, -2.6%).
Stroud DC, Chalford: Conservative 751 (45.1%, +12.8%), Labour 427 (25.6%, -1.3%), Green 341 (20.5%, -7.9%), Liberal Democrats 146 (8.8%).
Wakefield MBC, Wakefield West: Labour 1118 (49.7%, +7.2%), Conservative 933 (41.5%, +12.6%), Yorkshire Party 152 (6.8%), Liberal Democrats 46 (2.0%). All changes are since 2015.
The Green gain of Bishops Frome & Cradley, whose by-election was the only one this week to result in a change of hands, is particularly important for three reasons. It shows that the Greens are getting more popular in the countryside where environmentalist policies are needed most, that the "Corbyn effect" is in fact rather limited, and that in rural politics personalities have a stronger effect than party labels, although Herefordshire is nevertheless as a whole one of the most supportive counties for the Green Party outside South West England.
It is more difficult for the Greens when the contests are three-way or four-way, and the Chalford by-election was definitely a three-cornered fight, although the lack of a UKIP candidate aided a Conservative victory. Even though the Greens only missed out on a seat in Chalford ward in 2016 by 96 votes, they finished third behind Labour. Villages like Chalford are normally not conducive towards Labour support but former textile areas like Stroud, Calderdale and High Peak are a big exception to this rule; they also have high Green potential although only Stroud has been able to develop a strong Green base because these areas are also Conservative-Labour marginals with higher than average turnout rates.
Plaid performed poorly against Labour in the June general election except in Blaenau Gwent so their hold of Bryncoch South in an area where only Plaid Cymru and Labour are in contention is a critical one, despite the presence of a 0.9% swing from Plaid to Labour. The "Corbyn effect" dampened Plaid support substantially in Wales during the June election, particularly given the direction Plaid has taken under Leanne Wood's leadership, but in Wales its effects are less pronounced outside Cardiff.
Unionist tactical voting had a particularly strong effect in this week's local by-elections in Scotland, although in Rutherglen Central & North a pro-Labour swing of ~9.8% lessened its necessity. The SNP were just ahead on 1st preferences in the Perth City South by-election but were beaten by transfers from the Liberal Democrats, who like the Conservatives and Labour are unionist. Perth City South lies in the same Perth & North Perthshire constituency that SNP MP Pete Wishart only held on by 21 votes against the Conservatives' Ian Duncan. Had Perth & North Perthshire been part of a larger STV constituency as it would be in the Republic of Ireland, or been elected via AV as in Australia, the SNP would have been ousted in the end. The SNP are still the dominant party in Scotland and are 2nd in all 24 Westminster constituencies they do not currently represent, as well as all of the 14 Scottish Parliament single-member seats they do not currently represent, so tactical "united unionist" voting will continue in Scotland for a long time.
Wakefield's relatively close result is typical of the pro-Conservative swing experienced by West Yorkshire in the absence/decline of UKIP and of Wakefield's long term trends. Wakefield, like Outwood to the east of it (but still in the metropolitan borough) is becoming more popular with commuters and this pushes the area towards the Conservatives in the long term; middle-income commuters are still distrustful of Labour and proved to be one of the key factors in the Conservatives' gain of North East Derbyshire and retention of Morley & Outwood in June, amongst similar constituencies.
Cotswold DC, Grumbolds Ash & Avening: Conservative 420 (64.7%, -7.8%), Liberal Democrats 136 (21.0%, -7.6%), Labour 93 (14.3%).
Dover BC, St Margaret's at Cliffe: Conservative 750 (70.5%,+19.2%), Labour 314 (29.5%, +7.3%).
Herefordshire UA, Bishops Frome & Cradley: Green 471 (45.3%, +13.9%), Conservative 299 (28.8%, -39.8%), Liberal Democrats 251 (24.1%), Labour 19 (1.8%). Green gain from Conservative.
Leicester UA, Eyres Monsell: Labour 556 (53.2%, +9.8%), Liberal Democrats 320 (30.6%, +23.6%), Conservative 170 (16.3%, +0.2%).
Neath Port Talbot UA, Bryncoch South: Plaid Cymru 525 (49.5%, +3.3%), Labour 306 (28.8%, +5.1%), Conservative 105 (9.9%, -8.4%), Liberal Democrats 92 (8.7%, +3.0%), UKIP 33 (3.1%).
Perth & Kinross UA, Perth City South: SNP 1780 (32.1%, +6.4%), Conservative 1734 (31.2%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 1597 (28.8%, -5.9%), Labour 314 (5.7%, -0.7%), Green 102 (1.8%), Independent 25 (0.5%). Conservative hold at final stage.
South Lanarkshire UA, Rutherglen Central & North: Labour 1173 (38.5%, +7.5%), SNP 836 (27.4%, -12.0%), Liberal Democrats 554 (18.2%, +8.9%), Conservative 368 (12.1%, -4.2%), Green 88 (2.9%, -1.1%), UKIP 28 (0.9%). Labour hold at stage 3.
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Parkfield & Oxbridge: Labour 727 (54.7%, +8.9%), Conservative 409 (30.8%, +3.7%), Independent (Noor) 156 (11.7%), Liberal Democrats 37 (2.8%, -2.6%).
Stroud DC, Chalford: Conservative 751 (45.1%, +12.8%), Labour 427 (25.6%, -1.3%), Green 341 (20.5%, -7.9%), Liberal Democrats 146 (8.8%).
Wakefield MBC, Wakefield West: Labour 1118 (49.7%, +7.2%), Conservative 933 (41.5%, +12.6%), Yorkshire Party 152 (6.8%), Liberal Democrats 46 (2.0%). All changes are since 2015.
The Green gain of Bishops Frome & Cradley, whose by-election was the only one this week to result in a change of hands, is particularly important for three reasons. It shows that the Greens are getting more popular in the countryside where environmentalist policies are needed most, that the "Corbyn effect" is in fact rather limited, and that in rural politics personalities have a stronger effect than party labels, although Herefordshire is nevertheless as a whole one of the most supportive counties for the Green Party outside South West England.
It is more difficult for the Greens when the contests are three-way or four-way, and the Chalford by-election was definitely a three-cornered fight, although the lack of a UKIP candidate aided a Conservative victory. Even though the Greens only missed out on a seat in Chalford ward in 2016 by 96 votes, they finished third behind Labour. Villages like Chalford are normally not conducive towards Labour support but former textile areas like Stroud, Calderdale and High Peak are a big exception to this rule; they also have high Green potential although only Stroud has been able to develop a strong Green base because these areas are also Conservative-Labour marginals with higher than average turnout rates.
Plaid performed poorly against Labour in the June general election except in Blaenau Gwent so their hold of Bryncoch South in an area where only Plaid Cymru and Labour are in contention is a critical one, despite the presence of a 0.9% swing from Plaid to Labour. The "Corbyn effect" dampened Plaid support substantially in Wales during the June election, particularly given the direction Plaid has taken under Leanne Wood's leadership, but in Wales its effects are less pronounced outside Cardiff.
Unionist tactical voting had a particularly strong effect in this week's local by-elections in Scotland, although in Rutherglen Central & North a pro-Labour swing of ~9.8% lessened its necessity. The SNP were just ahead on 1st preferences in the Perth City South by-election but were beaten by transfers from the Liberal Democrats, who like the Conservatives and Labour are unionist. Perth City South lies in the same Perth & North Perthshire constituency that SNP MP Pete Wishart only held on by 21 votes against the Conservatives' Ian Duncan. Had Perth & North Perthshire been part of a larger STV constituency as it would be in the Republic of Ireland, or been elected via AV as in Australia, the SNP would have been ousted in the end. The SNP are still the dominant party in Scotland and are 2nd in all 24 Westminster constituencies they do not currently represent, as well as all of the 14 Scottish Parliament single-member seats they do not currently represent, so tactical "united unionist" voting will continue in Scotland for a long time.
Wakefield's relatively close result is typical of the pro-Conservative swing experienced by West Yorkshire in the absence/decline of UKIP and of Wakefield's long term trends. Wakefield, like Outwood to the east of it (but still in the metropolitan borough) is becoming more popular with commuters and this pushes the area towards the Conservatives in the long term; middle-income commuters are still distrustful of Labour and proved to be one of the key factors in the Conservatives' gain of North East Derbyshire and retention of Morley & Outwood in June, amongst similar constituencies.
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