My analysis of British by-elections from 02/11/17 and a tribute to Derek Robinson
Readers, the results of British local by-elections of 2 November 2017 were as follows:
Arun DC, Aldwick West: Liberal Democrats 719 (52.7%, +33.5%), Conservative 480 (35.2%, -13.3%), Labour 112 (8.2%), Green 54 (4.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Conservative 1298 (81.3%, +11.1%), Liberal Democrats 299 (18.7%, +2.5%).
Copeland DC, Egremont South: Labour 354 (52.4%, +12.4%), Conservative 321 (47.6%, +20.1%).
North Devon DC, Braunton East: Liberal Democrats 459 (37.1%, +3.0%), Green 387 (31.5%), Conservative 225 (18.2%, -17.5%), Labour 165 (13.3%, +6.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Sefton MBC, Duke's: Liberal Democrats 1680 (56.0%, +28.4%), Conservative 790 (26.3%, -9.4%), Labour 417 (13.9%, -2.3%), UKIP 69 (2.3%, -13.5%), Green 45 (1.5%, -3.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2015.
South Buckinghamshire DC, Beaconsfield North: Conservative 441 (, Liberal Democrats 136.
Note: The marker "all changes are since [X]" on a by-election result only applies to by-elections in councils which hold elections by thirds or by halves. It does not apply to councils which hold full council elections.
The Liberal Democrat capture of Duke's ward in Southport, part of Sefton MBC, was a foregone conclusion especially with former MP John Pugh (who retired earlier this year) as the (successful) candidate and with local Conservative organisation in Sefton being practically non-existent at times. However, their gains in Aldwick West, which has one of the highest proportions of retirees in Britain, and in Braunton East where the Green Party was campaigning heavily, were altogether more surprising.
The sexual harassment scandal in Westminster, which has recently led to the suspension pending further investigation of Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North since 1997) and possibly that of Charlie Elphicke (Conservative MP for Dover in 2010; however the exact nature of the serious allegations leading to his suspension has not yet been verified) has played a significant role in the Liberal Democrats' excellent performances against the Conservatives this week (barring ultra-Conservative Beaconsfield); no Liberal Democrat MPs have been accused in relation to this particular scandal so far. Green MP Caroline Lucas has called for consent lessons to be taught to all MPs, although a more substantial cultural change is what is really required to tackle this problem. This is reminiscent of the sharp swings from Conservative to Liberal in the 1964 general election in many middle-class areas (especially small-medium towns) following the Profumo scandal of 1963.
The Conservatives can at least be relieved at their good performance in Egremont, located in the Copeland constituency (one of only six Conservative gains made from Labour this June) and near the Sellafield nuclear plant, although this is trending Conservative anyway. The lack of an independent candidate here (they are a very common sight in rural Cumbrian elections) also helped the Conservatives' performance.
In other political news, controversial trade union stalwart Derek 'Red Robbo' Robinson, famous (or infamous) for his union activities in British Leyland particularly at the Austin factory in Longbridge, Birmingham, has died. He was also a Communist candidate for Birmingham Northfield four times in succession, from 1966 to October 1974, and he has beaten in both 1974 elections by an affiliate of the People Party and then an official People Party candidate, who both represented the first incarnation of the Green Party I know and love. Although his strike action, which he coordinated at all 42 BL plants, went to such great lengths he was famously sacked by British Leyland manager Michael Edwardes in 1979, it is clear that he genuinely stood up for car workers at British Leyland (unlike some more extreme Trotskyist agitators who just wanted attention and to cause trouble) who were let down by fundamental structural flaws, an incompetent and short-sighted management, and a government who failed to intervene when it was essential to do so. He was supposedly sacked to make sure British Leyland could move on with new models, but by then it was clear British Leyland was unviable (and likely never was viable in the first place) and it was broken up in 1986. Even after he slipped into relative obscurity, he was remembered (either fondly or with contempt) for many years afterwards until his death earlier this week.
In memory of Derek Robinson, born 1927, who departed this life on 31 October 2017, aged 90 years.
Arun DC, Aldwick West: Liberal Democrats 719 (52.7%, +33.5%), Conservative 480 (35.2%, -13.3%), Labour 112 (8.2%), Green 54 (4.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Conservative 1298 (81.3%, +11.1%), Liberal Democrats 299 (18.7%, +2.5%).
Copeland DC, Egremont South: Labour 354 (52.4%, +12.4%), Conservative 321 (47.6%, +20.1%).
North Devon DC, Braunton East: Liberal Democrats 459 (37.1%, +3.0%), Green 387 (31.5%), Conservative 225 (18.2%, -17.5%), Labour 165 (13.3%, +6.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Sefton MBC, Duke's: Liberal Democrats 1680 (56.0%, +28.4%), Conservative 790 (26.3%, -9.4%), Labour 417 (13.9%, -2.3%), UKIP 69 (2.3%, -13.5%), Green 45 (1.5%, -3.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2015.
South Buckinghamshire DC, Beaconsfield North: Conservative 441 (, Liberal Democrats 136.
Note: The marker "all changes are since [X]" on a by-election result only applies to by-elections in councils which hold elections by thirds or by halves. It does not apply to councils which hold full council elections.
The Liberal Democrat capture of Duke's ward in Southport, part of Sefton MBC, was a foregone conclusion especially with former MP John Pugh (who retired earlier this year) as the (successful) candidate and with local Conservative organisation in Sefton being practically non-existent at times. However, their gains in Aldwick West, which has one of the highest proportions of retirees in Britain, and in Braunton East where the Green Party was campaigning heavily, were altogether more surprising.
The sexual harassment scandal in Westminster, which has recently led to the suspension pending further investigation of Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North since 1997) and possibly that of Charlie Elphicke (Conservative MP for Dover in 2010; however the exact nature of the serious allegations leading to his suspension has not yet been verified) has played a significant role in the Liberal Democrats' excellent performances against the Conservatives this week (barring ultra-Conservative Beaconsfield); no Liberal Democrat MPs have been accused in relation to this particular scandal so far. Green MP Caroline Lucas has called for consent lessons to be taught to all MPs, although a more substantial cultural change is what is really required to tackle this problem. This is reminiscent of the sharp swings from Conservative to Liberal in the 1964 general election in many middle-class areas (especially small-medium towns) following the Profumo scandal of 1963.
The Conservatives can at least be relieved at their good performance in Egremont, located in the Copeland constituency (one of only six Conservative gains made from Labour this June) and near the Sellafield nuclear plant, although this is trending Conservative anyway. The lack of an independent candidate here (they are a very common sight in rural Cumbrian elections) also helped the Conservatives' performance.
In other political news, controversial trade union stalwart Derek 'Red Robbo' Robinson, famous (or infamous) for his union activities in British Leyland particularly at the Austin factory in Longbridge, Birmingham, has died. He was also a Communist candidate for Birmingham Northfield four times in succession, from 1966 to October 1974, and he has beaten in both 1974 elections by an affiliate of the People Party and then an official People Party candidate, who both represented the first incarnation of the Green Party I know and love. Although his strike action, which he coordinated at all 42 BL plants, went to such great lengths he was famously sacked by British Leyland manager Michael Edwardes in 1979, it is clear that he genuinely stood up for car workers at British Leyland (unlike some more extreme Trotskyist agitators who just wanted attention and to cause trouble) who were let down by fundamental structural flaws, an incompetent and short-sighted management, and a government who failed to intervene when it was essential to do so. He was supposedly sacked to make sure British Leyland could move on with new models, but by then it was clear British Leyland was unviable (and likely never was viable in the first place) and it was broken up in 1986. Even after he slipped into relative obscurity, he was remembered (either fondly or with contempt) for many years afterwards until his death earlier this week.
In memory of Derek Robinson, born 1927, who departed this life on 31 October 2017, aged 90 years.
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