My analysis of UK local by-elections from 16/11/17 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows:
Chiltern DC, Penn & Coleshill: Conservative 697 (80.6%, -19.4%), Liberal Democrats 168 (19.4%). NB: Conservatives were unopposed in this ward in 2015.
Darlington UA, Mowden: Conservative 652 (60.9%, +6.6%), Labour 285 (26.6%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 111 (10.4%), Green 26 (2.1%, -6.6%).
Darlington UA, Red Hill & Lingfield: Labour 249 (44.8%, -1.9%), Conservative 230 (41.4%, +12.4%), Independent (Kevin Brack)* 46 (8.3%), Green 20 (3.6%, -8.9%), Liberal Democrats 11 (2.0%, -9.9%).
Eden DC, Penrith North: Liberal Democrats 422 (45.2%, +2.3%), Conservative 291 (31.2%,-0.8%), Labour 155 (16.6%, -8.5%), Green 65 (7.0%).
Fylde BC, Staining & Weeton: Conservative 401 (73.0%, +8.4%), Labour 111 (20.2%, -15.1%), Liberal Democrats 37 (6.7%).
Hartlepool UA, Victoria: Labour 479 (53.1%, +10.7%), UKIP 325 (36.0%, +12.7%), Conservative 98 (10.9%, -0.7%). All changes are since 2016.
South Holland DC, Whaplode & Holbeach St Johns: Conservative 541 (78.0%, +21.2%), Labour 153 (22.0%).
Waveney DC, Kirkley: Labour 374 (47.8%, +12.2%), Conservative 217 (27.7%, +7.2%), Liberal Democrats 84 (10.7%), UKIP 78 (10.0%, -9.7%), Green 30 (3.8%, -5.1%).
Waveney DC, St Margarets: Conservative 487 (41.7%, +11.8%), Labour 410 (35.1%, -1.3%), UKIP 119 (10.2%, -15.8%), Liberal Democrats 88 (7.5%), Green 65 (5.6%, -2.2%). Conservative gain from Labour.
West Lindsey DC, Sudbrooke: Conservative 391 (69.6%, +0.6%), Labour 171 (30.4%, +10.5%).
*Kevin Brack is a member of Anne-Marie Waters' "For Britain" party which has not been registered with the Electoral Commission at this time.
This is without a doubt one of the best by-election weeks the Conservatives have had in months, even if they only captured one seat from Labour. The Conservatives increased their vote sharply in the majority of this week's by-elections, to the point where they captured the marginal St Margarets ward from Labour and nearly captured the normally reliable Labour ward of Red Hill & Lingfield (predecessors are accounted for; Darlington underwent a re-warding for its 2015 elections). They almost certainly would have captured it had it not been revealed that their candidate, Jonathan Dulston, had last year been fined for being drunk and disorderly and for obstructing an officer (he was in fact a special constable!). The Conservatives managed decisive victories in rural wards, and notably achieved an 11.8% swing against Labour in the by-election in Staining Weeton despite the ward being located close to the site of a planned fracking operation. Fracking is detested by the vast majority of Lancashire residents, even those living miles from the planned drilling. Two years ago, an anti-fracking independent by the name of Mike Hill achieved 5,166 votes in the otherwise solidly Conservative Fylde constituency (known as South Fylde until 1983
UKIP performed surprisingly well this week, actually edging closer to Labour in Hartlepool, one of the few areas with any significant UKIP organisation remaining. Hartlepool recorded the second best UKIP result in June 2017 behind Thurrock, although UKIP still slipped to 3rd with only 11% of the vote. Labour's candidate did not live in the ward and this gave UKIP an unintentional advantage, as did the absence of Putting Hartlepool First from that by-election's ballot paper. UKIP's vote was left wading in Waveney, but not drowning as it is elsewhere. Like most ex-fishing coastal towns, Lowestoft, the actual town where both of the local by-elections in Waveney happened, is drifting from Labour to the Conservatives in the long term as I have explained earlier in this blog. The traditional working-class ward of St Margarets was never safely Labour, only reliably Labour, and the falling UKIP vote aided a Conservative victory. Kirkley once had a slate of Liberal Democrat councillors who lost to Labour back in 2011 when they faced their first coalition drubbing; the Liberal Democrats did not even stand in Kirkley ward in 2015 and even though they beat UKIP in this by-election it does not give them real hope for a revival. The Greens, meanwhile, have faced substantial squeezes and lost considerable ground in Darlington in particular (many of their good results came due to the absence of Liberal Democrat candidates in the wards in question, however), but they have some excellent opportunities for local by-election gains in the coming weeks. The majority of these local by-elections, unsurprisingly given how cold a November this has been, had turnouts below 20%.
In environmental news, Sheffield Green Councillor Alison Teal was cleared by a magistrates' court of charges brought by Labour-dominated Sheffield City Council in relation to a protest against tree-felling ordered by said council. Sadly, today, Green county councillor Gina Dowding, along with 11 others including two independent councillors, was convicted of obstructing the highway in relation to a peaceful protest against planned shale gas operations in Lancashire, even though the environmental and health damage caused by those operations will be catastrophic in the long term and will ruin the lives of many residents. Shale gas is neither needed nor wanted in Lancashire, or anywhere else in the UK for that matter, and other countries are right to ban exploration for it. Renewable energy investment is needed instead.
Chiltern DC, Penn & Coleshill: Conservative 697 (80.6%, -19.4%), Liberal Democrats 168 (19.4%). NB: Conservatives were unopposed in this ward in 2015.
Darlington UA, Mowden: Conservative 652 (60.9%, +6.6%), Labour 285 (26.6%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 111 (10.4%), Green 26 (2.1%, -6.6%).
Darlington UA, Red Hill & Lingfield: Labour 249 (44.8%, -1.9%), Conservative 230 (41.4%, +12.4%), Independent (Kevin Brack)* 46 (8.3%), Green 20 (3.6%, -8.9%), Liberal Democrats 11 (2.0%, -9.9%).
Eden DC, Penrith North: Liberal Democrats 422 (45.2%, +2.3%), Conservative 291 (31.2%,-0.8%), Labour 155 (16.6%, -8.5%), Green 65 (7.0%).
Fylde BC, Staining & Weeton: Conservative 401 (73.0%, +8.4%), Labour 111 (20.2%, -15.1%), Liberal Democrats 37 (6.7%).
Hartlepool UA, Victoria: Labour 479 (53.1%, +10.7%), UKIP 325 (36.0%, +12.7%), Conservative 98 (10.9%, -0.7%). All changes are since 2016.
South Holland DC, Whaplode & Holbeach St Johns: Conservative 541 (78.0%, +21.2%), Labour 153 (22.0%).
Waveney DC, Kirkley: Labour 374 (47.8%, +12.2%), Conservative 217 (27.7%, +7.2%), Liberal Democrats 84 (10.7%), UKIP 78 (10.0%, -9.7%), Green 30 (3.8%, -5.1%).
Waveney DC, St Margarets: Conservative 487 (41.7%, +11.8%), Labour 410 (35.1%, -1.3%), UKIP 119 (10.2%, -15.8%), Liberal Democrats 88 (7.5%), Green 65 (5.6%, -2.2%). Conservative gain from Labour.
West Lindsey DC, Sudbrooke: Conservative 391 (69.6%, +0.6%), Labour 171 (30.4%, +10.5%).
*Kevin Brack is a member of Anne-Marie Waters' "For Britain" party which has not been registered with the Electoral Commission at this time.
This is without a doubt one of the best by-election weeks the Conservatives have had in months, even if they only captured one seat from Labour. The Conservatives increased their vote sharply in the majority of this week's by-elections, to the point where they captured the marginal St Margarets ward from Labour and nearly captured the normally reliable Labour ward of Red Hill & Lingfield (predecessors are accounted for; Darlington underwent a re-warding for its 2015 elections). They almost certainly would have captured it had it not been revealed that their candidate, Jonathan Dulston, had last year been fined for being drunk and disorderly and for obstructing an officer (he was in fact a special constable!). The Conservatives managed decisive victories in rural wards, and notably achieved an 11.8% swing against Labour in the by-election in Staining Weeton despite the ward being located close to the site of a planned fracking operation. Fracking is detested by the vast majority of Lancashire residents, even those living miles from the planned drilling. Two years ago, an anti-fracking independent by the name of Mike Hill achieved 5,166 votes in the otherwise solidly Conservative Fylde constituency (known as South Fylde until 1983
UKIP performed surprisingly well this week, actually edging closer to Labour in Hartlepool, one of the few areas with any significant UKIP organisation remaining. Hartlepool recorded the second best UKIP result in June 2017 behind Thurrock, although UKIP still slipped to 3rd with only 11% of the vote. Labour's candidate did not live in the ward and this gave UKIP an unintentional advantage, as did the absence of Putting Hartlepool First from that by-election's ballot paper. UKIP's vote was left wading in Waveney, but not drowning as it is elsewhere. Like most ex-fishing coastal towns, Lowestoft, the actual town where both of the local by-elections in Waveney happened, is drifting from Labour to the Conservatives in the long term as I have explained earlier in this blog. The traditional working-class ward of St Margarets was never safely Labour, only reliably Labour, and the falling UKIP vote aided a Conservative victory. Kirkley once had a slate of Liberal Democrat councillors who lost to Labour back in 2011 when they faced their first coalition drubbing; the Liberal Democrats did not even stand in Kirkley ward in 2015 and even though they beat UKIP in this by-election it does not give them real hope for a revival. The Greens, meanwhile, have faced substantial squeezes and lost considerable ground in Darlington in particular (many of their good results came due to the absence of Liberal Democrat candidates in the wards in question, however), but they have some excellent opportunities for local by-election gains in the coming weeks. The majority of these local by-elections, unsurprisingly given how cold a November this has been, had turnouts below 20%.
In environmental news, Sheffield Green Councillor Alison Teal was cleared by a magistrates' court of charges brought by Labour-dominated Sheffield City Council in relation to a protest against tree-felling ordered by said council. Sadly, today, Green county councillor Gina Dowding, along with 11 others including two independent councillors, was convicted of obstructing the highway in relation to a peaceful protest against planned shale gas operations in Lancashire, even though the environmental and health damage caused by those operations will be catastrophic in the long term and will ruin the lives of many residents. Shale gas is neither needed nor wanted in Lancashire, or anywhere else in the UK for that matter, and other countries are right to ban exploration for it. Renewable energy investment is needed instead.
Comments
Post a Comment