My analysis of British local by-elections from 9/11/17
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows:
Camden LBC, Gospel Oak: Labour 1144 (57.5, +9.5%), Liberal Democrats 510 (25.7%, +19.2%), Conservative 303 (15.2%, -1.1%), English Democrats 31 (1.6%).
Fareham BC, Stubbington: Liberal Democrats 1185 (55.2%, +32.4%), Conservative 769 (35.8%, +6.1%), UKIP 117 (5.4%, -37.9%), Labour 76 (3.5%, -0.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP; all changes are since 2014.
Flintshire UA, Buckley Bistre West: Labour 398 (53.9%, +10.5%), Independent (Hutchinson) 110 (14.9%), Independent (Teire) 86 (11.7%), Liberal Democrats 85 (11.5%, -26.8%), Conservative 59 (8.0%).
High Peak DC, Limestone Peak: Conservative 261 (53.7%, +3.4%), Labour 133 (27.4%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 58 (11.9%), Green 34 (7.0%).
Wandsworth LBC, Thamesfield: Conservative 1910 (48.9%, -1.1%), Labour 1101 (28.2%, +10.7%), Liberal Democrats 619 (15.9%, +6.3%), Green 275 (7.0%, -9.9%).
The absence of a Green candidate in Gospel Oak gave an indirect boost to the Liberal Democrats, who have made only a slight recovery in heavily pro-European Camden, and in a safe Labour ward which Labour have only lost once since the first election to Camden Borough Council in 1964 (even in 1968, Gospel Oak elected one Labour councillor out of two; 2006 was the first time in Camden Borough Council's history that Gospel Oak failed to elect any Labour councillors when it narrowly elected 3 Conservative councillors), and for many years beforehand on the now-defunct St Pancras council (one of three predecessors to Camden, the others being Hampstead and Holborn). Elsewhere in London, Labour managed a 5.9% swing in Thamesfield, one of the wealthiest areas of inner London, and certainly of Wandsworth. This was helped by the Liberal Democrats winning over many affluent, pro-Remain Conservative areas as they had done in June, which also placed a considerable squeeze on the Green Party who have previously done comparatively well in Thamesfield. Putney, the constituency in which Thamesfield ward sits, recorded the highest Lib Dem result in Wandsworth (and the largest increase) in the June general election, although it remained Conservative unlike Battersea which was won by Labour. It is the most affluent and gentrified part of Wandsworth and to some extent always has been.
UKIP's absence and collapse has often helped the Conservatives in by-elections, but not always or not enough as this week's by-elections show. A small swing of 1.4% from Labour to Conservative was managed in rural Limestone Peak, but in the coastal town of Fareham it was not enough to prevent a clear Liberal Democrat gain even though the resigning UKIP councillor had already joined the Conservatives by the time he resigned his council seat. This UKIP collapse, from 43.3% in 2014 to a mere 5.4% in 2017, is the biggest UKIP collapse so far in British local by-election history. These Liberal Democrat surges on the coast will be nonetheless limited in scope-the Liberal Democrat strength on the coast, locally and nationally has largely faded away and is unlikely to recover for the foreseeable future except in special cases like Eastbourne, which they recaptured from the Conservatives in June.
Meanwhile in Flintshire, the importance of personal votes could clearly not be underestimated; the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed due to their serving councillor, Neville Phillips, who has served in Flintshire (and one of its predecessor authorities, Alyn & Deeside) since 1973, not being the candidate in this by-election; the town of Buckley Bistre normally leans Labour unless another candidate's personal vote is strong enough, which is usually the case for at least two candidates who stand in the Buckley Bistre wards when Flintshire has its council elections. However, as usual in Wales, the Independent candidates performed reasonably well despite not coming close to winning.
From today, the "six month rule" applies to British local councils having elections in 2018, meaning that any council vacancies occurring after today will not be filled by by-elections but remain unfilled until May 2018. This rule will, for example, apply to all London borough councils and all councils holding elections by thirds and by halves.
Camden LBC, Gospel Oak: Labour 1144 (57.5, +9.5%), Liberal Democrats 510 (25.7%, +19.2%), Conservative 303 (15.2%, -1.1%), English Democrats 31 (1.6%).
Fareham BC, Stubbington: Liberal Democrats 1185 (55.2%, +32.4%), Conservative 769 (35.8%, +6.1%), UKIP 117 (5.4%, -37.9%), Labour 76 (3.5%, -0.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP; all changes are since 2014.
Flintshire UA, Buckley Bistre West: Labour 398 (53.9%, +10.5%), Independent (Hutchinson) 110 (14.9%), Independent (Teire) 86 (11.7%), Liberal Democrats 85 (11.5%, -26.8%), Conservative 59 (8.0%).
High Peak DC, Limestone Peak: Conservative 261 (53.7%, +3.4%), Labour 133 (27.4%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 58 (11.9%), Green 34 (7.0%).
Wandsworth LBC, Thamesfield: Conservative 1910 (48.9%, -1.1%), Labour 1101 (28.2%, +10.7%), Liberal Democrats 619 (15.9%, +6.3%), Green 275 (7.0%, -9.9%).
The absence of a Green candidate in Gospel Oak gave an indirect boost to the Liberal Democrats, who have made only a slight recovery in heavily pro-European Camden, and in a safe Labour ward which Labour have only lost once since the first election to Camden Borough Council in 1964 (even in 1968, Gospel Oak elected one Labour councillor out of two; 2006 was the first time in Camden Borough Council's history that Gospel Oak failed to elect any Labour councillors when it narrowly elected 3 Conservative councillors), and for many years beforehand on the now-defunct St Pancras council (one of three predecessors to Camden, the others being Hampstead and Holborn). Elsewhere in London, Labour managed a 5.9% swing in Thamesfield, one of the wealthiest areas of inner London, and certainly of Wandsworth. This was helped by the Liberal Democrats winning over many affluent, pro-Remain Conservative areas as they had done in June, which also placed a considerable squeeze on the Green Party who have previously done comparatively well in Thamesfield. Putney, the constituency in which Thamesfield ward sits, recorded the highest Lib Dem result in Wandsworth (and the largest increase) in the June general election, although it remained Conservative unlike Battersea which was won by Labour. It is the most affluent and gentrified part of Wandsworth and to some extent always has been.
UKIP's absence and collapse has often helped the Conservatives in by-elections, but not always or not enough as this week's by-elections show. A small swing of 1.4% from Labour to Conservative was managed in rural Limestone Peak, but in the coastal town of Fareham it was not enough to prevent a clear Liberal Democrat gain even though the resigning UKIP councillor had already joined the Conservatives by the time he resigned his council seat. This UKIP collapse, from 43.3% in 2014 to a mere 5.4% in 2017, is the biggest UKIP collapse so far in British local by-election history. These Liberal Democrat surges on the coast will be nonetheless limited in scope-the Liberal Democrat strength on the coast, locally and nationally has largely faded away and is unlikely to recover for the foreseeable future except in special cases like Eastbourne, which they recaptured from the Conservatives in June.
Meanwhile in Flintshire, the importance of personal votes could clearly not be underestimated; the Liberal Democrat vote collapsed due to their serving councillor, Neville Phillips, who has served in Flintshire (and one of its predecessor authorities, Alyn & Deeside) since 1973, not being the candidate in this by-election; the town of Buckley Bistre normally leans Labour unless another candidate's personal vote is strong enough, which is usually the case for at least two candidates who stand in the Buckley Bistre wards when Flintshire has its council elections. However, as usual in Wales, the Independent candidates performed reasonably well despite not coming close to winning.
From today, the "six month rule" applies to British local councils having elections in 2018, meaning that any council vacancies occurring after today will not be filled by by-elections but remain unfilled until May 2018. This rule will, for example, apply to all London borough councils and all councils holding elections by thirds and by halves.
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