Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 24 February 2022 (and one from 23 February 2022) were as follows: (23/02/22): Spelthorne BC, Stanwell North: Labour 605 (48.8%, +6.0%), Conservative 567 (45.7%, +7.6%), TUSC 69 (5.7%). [UKIP did not stand] (24/02/22): Castle Point DC, St Peter's: Conservative 502 (44.9%, +0.0%), Independent (Woodley) 439 (39.2%, -0.9%), Labour 173 (15.9%, +4.6%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Durham UA, Ferryhill: Labour 876 (41.3%, +6.7%), Independent (Newby) 528 (24.9%), Conservative 348 (16.4%, -16.6%), Independent (Makepeace) 166 (7.8%, -24.5%), Green 165 (7.8%), Freedom Alliance 28 (1.3%), Liberal Democrats 9 (0.4%). Labour gain from Independent. Lincolnshire CC, Colsterworth Rural: Conservative 986 (59.6%, -17.1%), Liberal Democrats 277 (16.8%), Labour 269 (16.3%, -6.9%), Green 121 (7.3%). Maldon DC, Wickham Bishop & Woodham: Conservative 361 (54.0%, -10.5%), Independent (Peatling) 161 (24.1%), Liberal Democrats 80 (12.0%), Labou...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place on 17 February 2022 were as follows: Allerdale DC, Stainburn & Clifton: Labour 354 (54.6%, +25.2%), Conservative 294 (45.4%, +28.9%). Labour gain from Independent. [No Independent or Green candidates this time] Bristol UA, Southmead: Labour 780 (41.2%, -1.9%), Green 728 (38.5%, +20.8%), Conservative 279 (14.8%, -13.2%), Liberal Democrats 82 (4.3%, -4.9%), TUSC 22 (1.2%). Mid Suffolk DC, Thurston: Green 845 (64.4%, +28.5%), Conservative 399 (30.4%, -4.3%), Liberal Democrats 37 (2.8%, -8.3%), Labour 32 (2.4%, -5.9%). [No Independent candidates this time] Newark & Sherwood DC, Collingham: Conservative 982 (56.3%, +26.5%), Liberal Democrats 594 (34.1%, +18.8%), Labour 168 (9.6%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time] North East Lincolnshire UA, Park: Conservative 715 (38.8%, -14.0%), Labour 578 (31.4%, +6.7%), Liberal Democrats 478 (26.0%, +9.5%), TUSC 70 (3.8%, +1.3%). All change...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of February 2022 were as follows: (03/02/2022): Costwold DC, Campden & The Vale : Conservative 1,180 (56.2%, +13.3%), Liberal Democrats 920 (43.8%, +17.8%). [UKIP did not stand] Dacorum BC, Berkhamsted West : Liberal Democrats 924 (64.1%, +14.3%), Conservative 318 (22.1%, -5.5%), Green 130 (9.0%, -6.5%), Labour 69 (4.8%, -2.3%). Dacorum BC, Boxmoor : Liberal Democrats 1,319 (60.5%, +16.5%), Conservative 599 (27.5%, -5.4%), Labour 171 (7.8%, -4.4%), Green 92 (4.2%, -6.7%). Leicester UA, Evington : Labour 1,557 (38.8%, -15.0%), Conservative 1,382 (34.4%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 830 (20.7%, +12.0%), Green 200 (5.0%, -7.9%), For Britain 45 (1.2%). [Socialist Alternative aka TUSC did not stand] Manchester MBC, Ancoats & Beswick : Liberal Democrats 1,113 (53.2%, +31.0%), Labour 793 (37.9%, -20.6%), Green 119 (5.7%, -5.3%), Conservative 66 (3.2%, -5.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are si...

 The 2022 Portuguese general election which took place on Sunday was a clear victory for Antonia Costa as he secured a single party majority for the Socialist Party (PS) for the first time since multiparty democracy resumed in Portugal in 1975. It also marked a significant fracture for the Portuguese "right" as well as a sea change (or rather lake change). PS won 117 seats, an increase of 9 from 2019 and enough to give them a 4 seat majority, and PS topped the poll in all of mainland Portugal for the first time since 2003 and only on the island of Madeira did PS not top the poll. With Portugal using PR lists with no threshold and with seats determined by region, it is almost impossible for any party, even PS and PSD (the Social Democrats, actually a liberal-conservative party despite the name) to win a single party majority in the Assembly of the [Portuguese] Republic. PS' gains came mainly at the expense of the Left Bloc (BE) and Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU, compri...

  Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections, which all took place in electoral divisions in the borough of Dartford, Kent, were as follows: Dartford BC, Maypole & Leyton Cross: Conservative 334 (63.1%, -21.1%), Green 76 (14.4%), Labour 65 (12.3%, -3.5%), Liberal Democrats 54 (10.2%). Dartford BC, Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley: Conservative 996 (67.8%, +18.4%), Labour 272 (18.5%, +4.9%), Liberal Democrats 200 (13.6%). [Previous Independent and UKIP did not stand] Kent CC, Wilmington: Conservative 1,787 (57.9%, -14.5%), Labour 613 (19.9%, -0.1%), Liberal Democrats 487 (15.8%), Green 200 (6.5%, -1.1%).  Although all three by-elections took place in very safely Conservative wards/divisions, the significant Conservative vote share decrease easily indicates the effects of "partygate" on the Conservatives even in such safe council seats as these; the Conservative vote only increased in the Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley by-election due...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first three weeks of January 2022 were as follows: (06/01/2022): Gedling DC, Cavendish: Liberal Democrats 344 (35.1%, +15.5%), Labour 303 (30.9%, -25.7%), Conservative 250 (25.5%, +1.8%), Fran Loi 56 (5.7%), Green 26 (2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. (13/01/2022): Wychavon DC, The Littletons: Green 291 (39.1%, -6.3%), Conservative 274 (36.8%, -17.8%), Liberal Democrats 179 (24.1%). Green gain from Conservative. (20/01/2022): Charnwood DC, Loughborough Skelthorpe (double by-election): Labour 709/654 (50.3%, +16.9%), Conservative 311 (22.9%, +1.2%), Independent (Hayes)* 149 (11.0%), Liberal Democrats 136/104 (8.8%, -1.2%), Green 108/81 (7.0%, -7.6%).  East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonards: Conservative 436 (62.0%, -4.2%), Independent (Fenton) 267 (38.0%). East Lothian UA, Preston, Seton & Gosford (1st preference votes): Labour 1,793 (38.5%, -4.2%), SNP 1,217 (26.2%, -1.4%), Conservative 1,154 (24.8%, +0.7%)...

  It is that time again-to predict which councils in Britain will or could change control this May. And this year there is a lot of re-warding, particularly for every unitary authority in Wales and the majority of London boroughs. Since the story of lockdown parties surfaced last month, the Conservatives' poll ratings have been nosediving, and Labour have overtaken them for the first time in 7 years. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are still struggling even after that spectacular win of North Shropshire, and the Greens are doing better than ever. In Scotland, the SNP are still riding high but Plaid Cymru is struggling to make headway in Wales. So which councils could change hands this year, based not only on this news but also local circumstances? My predictions (for those councils with a reasonable chance of changing hands this May): Conservative hold: Amber Valley, Basildon, Gosport, Huntingdonshire, Walsall. Conservative lose to NOC (No Overall Control): Barnet, Maidstone, Worce...