My analysis of British local by-elections in the first three weeks of January 2022 and also the Barbados general election of 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first three weeks of January 2022 were as follows:

(06/01/2022):

Gedling DC, Cavendish: Liberal Democrats 344 (35.1%, +15.5%), Labour 303 (30.9%, -25.7%), Conservative 250 (25.5%, +1.8%), Fran Loi 56 (5.7%), Green 26 (2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.

(13/01/2022):

Wychavon DC, The Littletons: Green 291 (39.1%, -6.3%), Conservative 274 (36.8%, -17.8%), Liberal Democrats 179 (24.1%). Green gain from Conservative.

(20/01/2022):

Charnwood DC, Loughborough Skelthorpe (double by-election): Labour 709/654 (50.3%, +16.9%), Conservative 311 (22.9%, +1.2%), Independent (Hayes)* 149 (11.0%), Liberal Democrats 136/104 (8.8%, -1.2%), Green 108/81 (7.0%, -7.6%). 

East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonards: Conservative 436 (62.0%, -4.2%), Independent (Fenton) 267 (38.0%).

East Lothian UA, Preston, Seton & Gosford (1st preference votes): Labour 1,793 (38.5%, -4.2%), SNP 1,217 (26.2%, -1.4%), Conservative 1,154 (24.8%, +0.7%), Green 231 (5.0%, +1.9%), Liberal Democrats 136 (2.9%, +0.5%), Independent (Miller) 122 (2.6%). Labour elected at stage 5.

Selby DC, Byram & Brotherton: Conservative 215 (48.1%, +13.4%), Labour 207 (46.3%, +23.2%), Green 25 (5.4%). Conservative gain from Yorkshire Party, who did not defend the seat.

*Mr Hayes was formerly a Conservative councillor in Charnwood, the local Conservatives endorsed him and thus only fielded one candidate in this double by-election.

With the "six month rule" in place there will once again be fewer local by-elections in the run up to this May's election. Furthermore, since there is insufficient information to draw from just one local by-election, I delayed this analysis until sufficient numbers of local by-elections had occurred during January 2022.

That said, the first two weeks produced interesting results, namely a Liberal Democrat gain in the Nottingham exurbs, where they are not particularly strong, and a Green gain in Wychavon despite the Liberal Democrats fielding a candidate and achieving a respectable result; in recent by-elections Greens have rarely done well where the Liberal Democrats have and vice versa. 

With the recent defection of Bury South's MP Christian Wakeford to Labour, combined with allegations of blackmail against Conservative whips, the Conservatives have had a remarkably strong performance so far this month, with them easily holding off an Independent challenge in Chapel St Leonard's and their surprise gain of Byram & Brotherton, which was expected to be a Labour gain; the defection of Yorkshire Party councillors to the Conservatives partly explains the reason why they did not defend that by-election. Although Labour failed to gain Byrom & Brotherton by only 8 votes, they achieved a significant swing in Loughborough Skelthorpe and held off a notable SNP challenge just outside Prestonpans. 

Just two days ago, Barbados held the first parliamentary election of this year worldwide, which was also its first election since it became a republic in November 2021. Surprisingly, the Barbados Labour Party repeated its 2018 feat of winning every available constituency in the country, and only in St Phillip North and St Phillip West did the primary opposition, the Democratic Labour Party, come close to winning seats. It is clear that the voters rewarded Mia Mottley strongly for her progressive shift in Barbados and her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Barbados.


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