My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of February 2022 and the Southend West by-election

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of February 2022 were as follows:

(03/02/2022):

Costwold DC, Campden & The Vale: Conservative 1,180 (56.2%, +13.3%), Liberal Democrats 920 (43.8%, +17.8%). [UKIP did not stand]

Dacorum BC, Berkhamsted West: Liberal Democrats 924 (64.1%, +14.3%), Conservative 318 (22.1%, -5.5%), Green 130 (9.0%, -6.5%), Labour 69 (4.8%, -2.3%).

Dacorum BC, Boxmoor: Liberal Democrats 1,319 (60.5%, +16.5%), Conservative 599 (27.5%, -5.4%), Labour 171 (7.8%, -4.4%), Green 92 (4.2%, -6.7%).

Leicester UA, Evington: Labour 1,557 (38.8%, -15.0%), Conservative 1,382 (34.4%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 830 (20.7%, +12.0%), Green 200 (5.0%, -7.9%), For Britain 45 (1.2%). [Socialist Alternative aka TUSC did not stand]

Manchester MBC, Ancoats & Beswick: Liberal Democrats 1,113 (53.2%, +31.0%), Labour 793 (37.9%, -20.6%), Green 119 (5.7%, -5.3%), Conservative 66 (3.2%, -5.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2021.

Tamworth BC, Spital: Conservative 613 (43.6%, -11.7%), Independent (Loxton) 482 (34.3%, +16.9%), Labour 311 (22.1%, -3.0%). All changes are since May 2021. [UKIP did not stand]

(10/02/2022):

Eastleigh BC, Eastleigh Central: Liberal Democrats 802 (44.5%, +7.6%), Labour 433 (24.0%, +4.7%), Conservative 362 (20.1%, +8.3%), Green 140 (7.8%), Reform UK 64 (3.6%, +0.1%). All changes are since May 2021,

Somerset West & Taunton DC, Alcombe: Liberal Democrats 259 (49.2%, +16.7%), Conservative 223 (44.3%, +25.3%), Labour 21 (4.0%, -6.9%), Independent (Lillis) 13 (2.5%)
Wealden DC, Hailsham South: Liberal Democrats 394 (59.7%, +30.9%), Conservative 254 (38.5%, -8.1%), SDP 12 (1.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

The first fortnight of February 2022 proved to be an excellent one for the Liberal Democrats in particular, although more than half of the contests featured by-elections where only they and the Conservatives were in competition. It was nevertheless very surprising that they avoided being tactically squeezed in the Evington by-election, where continuing woes within Leicester East CLP in light of the ongoing troubles surrounding Claudia Webbe led to the Conservatives achieving a 14.3% swing and missing out on a gain by only 165 votes. Their gain of Ancoats & Beswick is not as surprising given that Labour often gets complacent on metropolitan councils where they have little or no opposition; as of this time of writing 91 out of 96 councillors on Manchester MBC are Labour. In Campden & The Vale, where the two candidates lived next door to each other, the absence of a UKIP candidate proved crucial to a Conservative hold of that ward, especially when the Liberal Democrats have been making substantial inroads into affluent Conservative strongholds since the European Union membership referendum of June 2016.

Last week also came the Southend West parliamentary by-election, whose results were as follows:

Christopher Anderson, Freedom Alliance, 161 (1.1%)

Catherine Blaiklock, English Democrats, 320 (2.2%)

Olga Childs, 52 (0.3%)

Ben Dowton, Heritage Party, 236 (1.6%)

Anna Firth, Conservative, 12,792 (86.1%, +26.4%)

Jayda Fransen, Independent, 299 (2.0%)

Steve Laws, UKIP, 400 (2.7%)

Graham Moore, English Constitution Party, 86 (0.6%)

Jason Pilley, Psychedelic Movement, 512 (3.5%).

Conservative HOLD.

With major parties not contesting the by-election out of respect for Sir David Amess, whose death caused this by-election (a man called Ali Harbi Ali is due to stand trial for Sir David's murder in March), the result was a foregone conclusion and like in the 2016 Batley & Spen by-election, all the losing candidates lost their deposits, in another humiliation for far right parties. It was speculated that UKIP would finish second, but in fact they finished third behind the Psychedelic Movement, whose manifesto can largely be described as a load of incoherent nonsense. Furthermore, the number of spoiled ballot papers, at 1,084, was more than double that of the runner-up candidate, Jason Pilley of the aforementioned Psychedelic Movement, and this is the highest number of spoiled ballot papers at a UK parliamentary by-election since the Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-election of April 1981. In fact, were "spoiled ballot papers" a candidate, they would have saved their £500 deposit!

Like the Batley & Spen by-election of 2016, turnout dropped sharply due to the absence of major party candidates, and to an even lower level of 24%, the third lowest turnout in a parliamentary by-election since 1945, ahead of only the 2012 Manchester Central by-election and the 1999 Leeds Central by-election. The low turnout is also attributable to general dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party especially after "Partygate", the lack of any significant attention on the by-election, and the safeness of the seat-since its creation in 1950 when Southend was split into two seats (West and East), Southend West has not changed hands once.