My analysis of British local by-elections from the last week of February 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 24 February 2022 (and one from 23 February 2022) were as follows:

(23/02/22):

Spelthorne BC, Stanwell North: Labour 605 (48.8%, +6.0%), Conservative 567 (45.7%, +7.6%), TUSC 69 (5.7%). [UKIP did not stand]

(24/02/22):

Castle Point DC, St Peter's: Conservative 502 (44.9%, +0.0%), Independent (Woodley) 439 (39.2%, -0.9%), Labour 173 (15.9%, +4.6%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Durham UA, Ferryhill: Labour 876 (41.3%, +6.7%), Independent (Newby) 528 (24.9%), Conservative 348 (16.4%, -16.6%), Independent (Makepeace) 166 (7.8%, -24.5%), Green 165 (7.8%), Freedom Alliance 28 (1.3%), Liberal Democrats 9 (0.4%). Labour gain from Independent.

Lincolnshire CC, Colsterworth Rural: Conservative 986 (59.6%, -17.1%), Liberal Democrats 277 (16.8%), Labour 269 (16.3%, -6.9%), Green 121 (7.3%).

Maldon DC, Wickham Bishop & Woodham: Conservative 361 (54.0%, -10.5%), Independent (Peatling) 161 (24.1%), Liberal Democrats 80 (12.0%), Labour 66 (9.9%, -5.3%). [No Independent candidates this time]

South Kesteven DC, Aveland: Conservative 373 (72.4%), Labour 142 (27.6%).

South Kesteven DC, Isaac Newton: Conservative 412 (51.8%, -24.7%), Andrew Skelton 165 (20.7%), Labour 147 (18.5%, -5.1%), Green 72 (9.0%).

The majority of this week's by-elections took place in very safe Conservative wards/divisions, but even there the Conservatives lost significant amounts of support, except in St Peter's, Castle Point which they narrowly held against a strong Independent challenge. Furthermore, the lack of a UKIP candidate did not help the Conservatives in Stanwell North as expected, a clear sign of the "Brexit halo" wearing off even in Conservative-inclined areas. 

The most surprising result this week was Labour's gain of Ferryhill, which at last year's elections to Durham Council was split evenly with 1 Independent councillor, 1 Labour councillor, and 1 Conservative councillor. Joe Makepeace, who had narrowly been defeated last year, failed spectacularly in his efforts to regain his seat, finishing a poor 4th place. It is also a sign that Labour is regaining ground amongst moderate Labour voters having demonstrably failed to do so last year, although arguably this is also attributable to growing dissatisfaction with Boris Johnson amidst numerous scandals and nepotism.

 

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