My analysis of by-elections of 17 February 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place on 17 February 2022 were as follows:

Allerdale DC, Stainburn & Clifton: Labour 354 (54.6%, +25.2%), Conservative 294 (45.4%, +28.9%). Labour gain from Independent. [No Independent or Green candidates this time]

Bristol UA, Southmead: Labour 780 (41.2%, -1.9%), Green 728 (38.5%, +20.8%), Conservative 279 (14.8%, -13.2%), Liberal Democrats 82 (4.3%, -4.9%), TUSC 22 (1.2%).

Mid Suffolk DC, Thurston: Green 845 (64.4%, +28.5%), Conservative 399 (30.4%, -4.3%), Liberal Democrats 37 (2.8%, -8.3%), Labour 32 (2.4%, -5.9%). [No Independent candidates this time]

Newark & Sherwood DC, Collingham: Conservative 982 (56.3%, +26.5%), Liberal Democrats 594 (34.1%, +18.8%), Labour 168 (9.6%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]

North East Lincolnshire UA, Park: Conservative 715 (38.8%, -14.0%), Labour 578 (31.4%, +6.7%), Liberal Democrats 478 (26.0%, +9.5%), TUSC 70 (3.8%, +1.3%). All changes are since May 2021.

North Northamptonshire UA, Oundle: Liberal Democrats 1,683 (47.2%, +23.2%), Conservative 1,423 (39.9%, -1.2%), Labour 337 (9.4%, -6.5%), Green 124 (3.5%, -11.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [No Independent candidates this time]

Nottinghamshire CC, Collingham: Independent (Darby) 2,009 (63.8%), Conservative 898 (28.5%, -11.7%), Labour 244 (7.7%). Independent gain from another Independent. [Greens did not stand]

Oadby & Wigston BC, Wigston Meadowcourt: Conservative 883 (63.4%, +31.3%), Liberal Democrats 377 (27.1%, -25.8%), Green 133 (9.5%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. [Labour did not stand]

West Devon DC, Tavistock North*: Conservative 379 (39.3%, +23.6%), Liberal Democrats 337 (35.0%, +15.0%), Green 163 (16.9%), Labour 85 (8.8%, -10.5%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]

*Counting for this by-election was postponed until Saturday morning due to the effects of Storm Eunice which resulted in red weather warnings in the South West.

It is rarely that the Greens have to defend council seats instead of gain ones within reach during by-elections. Their defence of Thurston proved to be easy with a 16.4% swing in their favour, although they missed gaining Southmead by just 52 votes despite their growing popularity in Bristol and the growing dissatisfaction with Bristol's Labour Mayor, Marvin Rees. 

Apart from their gain in Oundle, which even featured in regional BBC headlines, the Liberal Democrats had a disappointing week. Their loss of Wigston Meadowcourt on a 28.5% swing to the Conservatives is due to unpopular recent parking charges imposed by Oadby & Wigston council, which has been under Liberal Democrat control since 1991, usually with large majorities. Furthermore, they narrowly failed to gain Tavistock North, and the Conservatives' gain of that ward strengthens their control of West Devon council, which they gained control of last year following a by-election gain, and nor did they gain Collingham in Newark & Sherwood despite being endorsed by the Independent who convincingly won the Nottinghamshire County Council division of the same name (the other Collingham by-election had no Liberal Democrat candidate).

Labour's only notable result was gaining Stainburn & Clifton in "Red Wall" Allerdale, marking a way back against the Conservatives in their former strongholds. Their failure to gain Park ward, the most affluent ward of the old fishing port of Great Grimsby, shows a clear limit to tactical voting; the Conservatives held that seat amidst split opposition since both the Liberal Democrat and Labour vote shares increased significantly. 



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