My predictions for British council elections in 2022

 It is that time again-to predict which councils in Britain will or could change control this May. And this year there is a lot of re-warding, particularly for every unitary authority in Wales and the majority of London boroughs.

Since the story of lockdown parties surfaced last month, the Conservatives' poll ratings have been nosediving, and Labour have overtaken them for the first time in 7 years. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats are still struggling even after that spectacular win of North Shropshire, and the Greens are doing better than ever. In Scotland, the SNP are still riding high but Plaid Cymru is struggling to make headway in Wales.

So which councils could change hands this year, based not only on this news but also local circumstances?

My predictions (for those councils with a reasonable chance of changing hands this May):

Conservative hold: Amber Valley, Basildon, Gosport, Huntingdonshire, Walsall.

Conservative lose to NOC (No Overall Control): Barnet, Maidstone, Worcester.

Labour gain from Conservative: Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton, Wandsworth.

Labour hold: Bury, Calderdale, Cardiff, Harrow, Kingston-upon-Hull, Leeds, Merton, Reading, St Helens, Stevenage.

Labour gain from NOC: Crawley, Flintshire, Kirklees, Rossendale, Wortthing.

Labour lose to NOC: Sunderland.

Liberal Democrat hold: Mole Valley, St Albans, Sutton.

SNP gain from NOC: Dundee.

Plaid Cymru gain from NOC: Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Isle of Anglesey, 

NOC hold: Bolton, Bridgend, Derby, Elmbridge, Falkirk, Merthyr Tydfil, North Hertfordshire, Peterborough, Sheffield, Southend-on-Sea, Tunbridge Wells, West Lancashire, Wirral, Woking.


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