My analysis of local by-elections from 15 July and 22 July 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections of yesterday (and 15 July last week) were as follows:

(15/7/21):

Sandwell MBC, Tividale: Conservative 986 (52.6%, +5.6%), Labour 810 (43.2%, -9.8%), Independent (Kutebura) 40 (2.1%), Liberal Democrats 30 (1.9%), TUSC 9 (0.5%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May.

(22/7/21):

Camden LBC, Fortune Green: Liberal Democrats 1197 (46.7%, +12.4%), Labour 849 (33.1%, -3.9%), Conservative 518 (20.2%, +1.6%). [Greens did not stand]

Dover DC, Alkham & Capel-le-Ferne: Conservative 315 (48.7%, -3.4%), Liberal Democrats 173 (26.7%, -9.6%), Labour 101 (15.6%, -4.0%), Green 58 (9.0%).

Leicester UA, Humberstone & Hamilton: Conservative 1062 (44.7%, +20.0%), Labour 790 (33.2%, -15.5%), Liberal Democrats 262 (11.0%, +0.6%), Green 190 (8.0%, -8.1%), Reform UK 37 (1.6%), For Britain 37 (1.6%). Conservative gain from Labour.

North Somerset UA, Congresbury & Paxton: Green 594 (64.1%), Conservative 270 (29.3%, +15.7%), Labour 57 (6.2%, -25.8%). Green gain from Liberal Democrats, who did not defend the seat.

Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Tyn-y-Nant: Labour 411 (80.9%, +8.8%), Conservative 62 (12.2%, -15.6%), Plaid Cymru 35 (6.9%).

Spelthorne BC, Staines: Green 651 (44.0%, +6.4%), Conservative 486 (32.8%, +7.9%), Independent (West) 275 (18.6%), TUSC 39 (2.6%), Reform UK 29 (2.0%). [UKIP and Labour did not stand]

Thanet DC, Cliftonville East: Conservative 723 (74.5%, +16.3%), Labour 211 (21.7%, -1.0%), Women's Equality Party 37 (3.8%, -15.3%).

Wirral MBC, Liscard: Labour 1137 (53.6%, -3.3%), Conservative 582 (27.4%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 201 (9.5%, +2.8%), Green 109 (5.1%, -3.0%), Independent (Williams) 68 (3.2%), For Britain 26 (1.2%). All changes are since May.

Labour's announcement earlier this week that it would proscribe four hard left factions did not endear it at all in by-elections this week, particularly in Humberstone & Hamilton where they lost a safe seat to the Conservatives on a 17.8% swing. This happened primarily due to discontent amongst Hindu voters in the ward with Labour since Claudia Webbe became MP for Leicester East in December 2019 (in that election, Conservative candidate Bhupendra Dave secured a 15.3% swing in his favour) the deceased councillor resigned in protest against her selection over local candidates. Ms Webbe is also due to stand trial for harassment charges later this year. As for last week's Labour loss of Tividale, also to the Conservatives, this is due to general dissatisfaction with Sandwell council, still dominated by Labour and recently almost a one-party state. Another surprise was Labour's failure to win the Fortune Green by-election, caused by the resignation of long-serving Liberal Democrat councillor Flick Rea who had been in post for 35 years, and furthermore the Liberal Democrats' winning margin was greater than the votes polled by the Green Party in the same ward in 2018. The high level of competition in that ward, where over 60% of the population have a degree, was not enough to draw voters to the polls in such hot weather, with turnout only reaching 29.8%. The by-election in Tyn-y-Nant (Tynant as it is known in English) was the only piece of good news for Labour this week in local by-election terms, although it was already such a safe Labour ward.

The resignation of both Green Party co-leaders in just nine days, and a year before the next Green Party leadership election would normally have taken place, did not prevent the Greens easily recapturing Congresbury & Paxton, which they had only lost in 2019 due to the Greens being unable to find a candidate to replace retiring councillor Tom Leimdorfer, Courteously the Liberal Democrats chose not to defend this seat and instead allow the Greens to regain it, which they did spectacularly with Labour's vote collapsing. Similarly, in an unusual move given Labour's antipathy towards "progressive alliances", Labour stood aside to help the Greens keep the marginal Staines ward, which two Green councillors and one Labour councillor had gained from the Conservatives in the Conservatives' worst local election year since 1995. The Greens did keep the ward relatively easily, although the Conservatives still managed a small 0.8% swing in their favour despite an ex-UKIP candidate standing as an Independent and polling 100 votes more than the Greens' winning margin over the Conservatives in that by-election, although arguably Paul West only carried over his own vote as a UKIP candidate from 2019.



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