My analysis of British local by-elections from 29 July 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections held yesterday were as follows:

Basildon BC, Pitsea North West: Conservative 794 (56.5%, +14.8%), Labour 430 (30.6%, -16.0%), Basildon Community Residents 82 (5.8%, -3.2%), Liberal Democrats 57 (4.1%, +1.4%), Reform UK 23 (1.6%), For Britain 19 (1.4%). Conservative gain from Labour.

Bassetlaw DC, East Retford South: Conservative 493 (40.1%, +23.1%), Independent (Richards) 488 (39.7%), Labour 247 (20.1%, -42.2%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP did not stand]

Harrogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park: Liberal Democrats 635 (56.6%, +19.6%), Conservative 384 (34.3%, -4.2%), Labour 91 (8.1%, -16.4%), UKIP 11 (1.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Norfolk CC, Gaywood South: Liberal Democrats 648 (39.3%, +20.8%), Labour 561 (34.0%, -1.6%), Conservative 378 (22.9%, -25.3%), Independent (Talbot) 35 (2.1%), UKIP 28 (1.7%, -3.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

South Tyneside MBC, Felgate & Hedworth: Labour 850 (49.1%, +9.6%), Independent (Robinson) 555 (32.0%, -15.8%), Conservative 158 (9.1%, +4.7%), Liberal Democrats 125 (7.2%, -1.0%), Green 44 (2.5%). Labour gain from Independent; all changes are since 2019.

For the first time in years with a week involving multiple local by-elections, every single local by-election saw the seat changing hands from one party to another (or in South Tyneside's case, from an independent candidate to Labour). 

The first two by-elections, those in the small towns of Pitsea and East Retford respectively, are demonstrable examples of how low turnout benefits the Conservatives, especially with remaining lockdown restrictions having been lifted at the beginning of last week, since older voters are more likely to vote whatever the weather and are much more likely to vote Conservative. Both elections had turnouts below 20%, and Pitsea North West's was a miserable 14.9%, although its turnout was already considerably below average in May (25.4%). 

Both the East Retford South by-election and the Felgate & Hedworth by-election also demonstrate that "resigning to restand" (which, even if for principled reasons, wastes time and public money) usually does not end well in by-elections; both the councillors who resigned to restand lost, although in Helen Richards' case only by 5 votes. This was however in an ostensibly safe Labour ward, and demonstrates how "negative personal votes" can drag candidates down even in safe wards, which councillors (and MPs) who "resign to restand" almost always incur.

Lastly, 1 1/2 years on from Britain leaving the EU, the political effects of Brexit are still strongly apparent, as the Liberal Democrats' decisive gain of Knaresborough Scriven Park demonstrated, and this by-election was also a good chance to protest the abolition of Harrogate District Council itself, as it is set to be merged into a North Yorkshire unitary council from 2023 onwards, with shadow elections due to be held next year if Parliament approves the plans.

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