My analysis of local by-elections from the first two Thursdays of July 2021

Readers, the results of local by-elections in Britain that occurred on 1 July and 8 July 2021 were as follows:

(1/7/21):

Chelmsford DC, Writtle: Conservative 716 (50.0%, -11.2%), Liberal Democrats 572 (39.9%, +1.1%), Green 78 (5.4%), Labour 67 (4.7%).

Elmbridge BC, Cobham & Downside: Liberal Democrats 890 (49.8%, +28.1%), Conservative 778 (43.5%, -21.0%), Green 54 (3.0%), Labour 47 (2.6%, -5.8%), Reform UK 19 (1.1%, -1.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since May. [UKIP did not stand]

Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1694 (55.2%, +15.4%), Labour 875 (28.5%, -8.0%), Green 233 (7.6%, -3.4%), Liberal Democrats 225 (7.3%, -2.5%), TUSC 27 (0.9%), Taking The Initiative 15 (0.5%).

Islington LBC, Tollington: Labour 1243 (56.7%, -16.1%), Green 730 (33.3%, +19.9%), Conservative 127 (5.8%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 94 (4.4%, -4.0%).

Newark & Sherwood DC, Bridge (double election): Conservative 310/257 (35.3%, +14.7%), Independents 236/181 (25.5%), Labour 177/162 (20.7%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 104/59 (10.0%), Green 81/57 (8.4%). Conservative gain from Independent x2.

North East Lincolnshire UA, Heneage: Conservative 507 (41.9%, -8.2%), Labour 344 (28.4%, -11.1%), Liberal Democrats 336 (27.7%, +23.8%), TUSC 24 (1.0%, -1.5%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2021. [Freedom Alliance did not stand]

Stoke-on-Trent UA, Penkhull & Stoke: Conservative 582 (40.6%, +34.1%), Labour 572 (39.9%, -0.7%), City Independents 171 (11.9%, -32.5%), Green 109 (7.6%, -0.8%). Conservative gain from City Independents.

(8/7/21):

East Devon DC, Feniton: Conservative 239 (53.5%, +40.9%), Labour 126 (28.2%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 82 (18.4%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independents this time around]

East Devon DC, Honiton St Michael's: Labour 807 (58.0%), Conservative 522 (37.5%, -12.3%), Liberal Democrats 63 (4.5%, -45.7%). Labour gain from Liberal Democrats.

East Suffolk DC, Aldeburgh & Leiston (double election): Green 1110/1101 (43.8%, +27.5%), Conservative 1103/1006 (41.8%, +12.4%), Labour 355/311 (13.2%, -5.0%), Communist 61 (1.2%). Green gain from Conservative x1, Conservative hold x1. [Independents and Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Harlow BC, Mark Hall: Conservative 549 (46.4%, +23.2%), Labour 493 (41.7%, -0.9%), Green 86 (7.3%), Liberal Democrats 55 (4.6%, -5.0%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2019.

Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots East: Independent (Pitt) 249 (42.5%), Green 196 (33.4%), Liberal Democrats 68 (11.6%, -20.4%), Conservative 47 (8.0%, -23.7%), Labour 26 (4.4%, -31.8%). Independent gain from Labour.

Mid Sussex DC, Ardingly & Balcombe: Green 452 (36.9%, +12.9%), Conservative 409 (33.4%, -5.6%), Liberal Democrats 340 (27.8%, +2.1%), Independent (Steggles) 23 (1.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

Contrary to their narrow "breath a sigh of relief" hold of the Batley & Spen by-election the same day, Labour's local election night on 1st July was universally poor, although in three of the by-elections of 1st July they were not competitive anyway. The other four by-elections of that day show they are struggling in all types of area, but especially post-industrial areas and new towns where demographics are increasingly unfavourable to them. Thus, their loss of another seat in North East Lincolnshire was not surprising although the Liberal Democrat surge was, and even though the Conservatives are firmly in charge in Stoke-on-Trent Labour are still not trusted by electors there, the reality that it is not doing any better under a Conservative administration notwithstanding. As for Bush Hill Park, troubles within the ruling Labour group on Enfield council are primarily responsible for their knockback in an area of suburban London that is becoming in the long-term competitive for Labour otherwise. Meanwhile, the vulnerability of the Conservatives in the London commuter belt, once forming a reliable stronghold, is still evident from the Liberal Democrat gain in Cobham & Downside on a 24.5% swing. 

You may be wondering why Labour did so well in both by-elections in East Devon yesterday, to the point where in the Honiton St Michael's by-election they won spectacularly giving them their first seat on East Devon District Council for 26 years. This is because middle-class public sector workers (in education and healthcare primarily) who work in Exeter are increasingly being priced out of Exeter in the way that similar workers have been priced out of Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, and Bristol, and thus are moving out to towns like Honiton, formerly regarded as sleepy retirement territory even if not to the same extent as nearby Exmouth. These voters, even if they hold relatively high ranks in those sectors, are generally a reliable Labour-voting bloc and the decline of the East Devon Independent Alliance will be helpful to Labour in East Devon in future. The fact that in the aforementioned Honiton St Michael's by-election the Labour candidate was an 18-year-old A level student made no difference. It also means that the Liberal Democrats are becoming less competitive in south Devon which was once good territory for them; in fact had the Greens stood in both of those by-elections they would likely have finished ahead of the Liberal Democrats at least.

Environmental issues at local level first and foremost proved to be key to the two Green gains that happened this week: Aldeburgh & Leiston contains the Sizewell nuclear power station in addition to a beautiful and cultured seaside resort which is also noted for its contribution to progressive history (the first woman mayor of England, Elizabeth Garrett Anderson, who was also one of the first women to become a doctor in England, was born and raised in Aldeburgh), and the issue of coastal erosion on the Suffolk coast is becoming a more serious problem as time goes by. That said, the Greens were unlucky to gain only one of the two seats, missing on the second by just 2 votes. Ardingly & Balcombe, meanwhile, in addition to being the home of the prestigious private school Ardingly College is also home to what was a key fracking site. Memories of the fracking threat are still fresh in the minds of residents there, and planning reforms undoubtedly proved vital to adding the extra ingredient necessary for a Green gain of that ward.

The importance of personal votes in St Neots, which has one the strongest Independent groups for a town within reasonable commuting distance of Greater London, proved vital in a by-election in St Neots East where the seat was vacated by Dr Nik Johnson, now Metro Mayor of Cambridgeshire & Peterborough. Not only did independent candidate and St Neots town councillor Ben Pitt win, but the Labour candidate selected to stand in Dr Johnson's place finished stone dead last. The excellent Green result can be attributed in part to opposition to overdevelopment of the ward; in fact planned developments on Love's Farm which will be constructed soon are the reason there is a St Neot's East ward at all; before the review of local wards in Huntingdonshire for the 2018 elections in Huntingdonshire the area was part of Gransden & The Offords.