How a shock Labour hold occurred in the Batley & Spen by-election

 Readers, in case you are not already aware, the results of the Batley & Spen by-election that occurred yesterday were as follows:

Paul Bickerdike, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 102 (0.3%)

Mike Davies, Alliance for Green Socialism, 104 (0.3%)

Jayda Fransen, Independent, 50 (0.1%)

George Galloway, Workers' Party of Great Britain, 8,264 (21.9%)

Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrats, 1,254 (3.3%, -1.4%)

Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 107 (0.3%)

Susan Laird, Heritage Party, 33 (0.1%)

Kim Leadbeater, Labour, 13,296 (35.3%, -7.4%)

Therese Muchiewicz, English Democrats, 207 (0.5%)

Ollie Purser, SDP, 66 (0.2%)

Corey Robinson, Yorkshire Party, 816 (2.2%)

Andrew Smith, Rejoin EU, 75 (0.2%)

Ryan Stephenson, Conservative, 12,973 (34.6%, -1.6%)

Jack Thomson, UKIP, 151 (0.4%)

Jonathan Tilt, Freedom Alliance, 100 (0.3%)

Anne-Marie Waters, For Britain, 97 (0.3%)

Labour HOLD.

It was predicted by almost all political commentators that, especially with George Galloway's vicious campaign, Labour would lose this seat to the Conservatives despite the strong local credentials of their candidate, Kim Leadbeater. Ms Leadbeater is the sister of Jo Cox, who was Labour MP for this seat for 13 months before she was murdered by an extreme right terrorist, and founded the Jo Cox foundation in her memory. By contrast the Conservative candidate, Ryan Stephenson, was a councillor for the prosperous Leeds suburb of Harewood, which whilst still in West Yorkshire is almost a world away from the former mill towns that make up Batley & Spen, and he had no connection with Batley & Spen itself; in fact Ms Leadbeater was the only candidate in this by-election who actually lived in the Batley & Spen constituency. Revelations about Matt Hancock's affair combined with a clear breach of COVID-19 regulations, which culminated in Mr Hancock's resignation as Health Secretary, also angered enough Conservative voters to thwart a Conservative gain, even with the Heavy Woollen District Independents (HWDI, a localist party based in eastern Kirklees) and Reform UK standing aside to give the Conservatives the best chance of gaining the seat.

With approximately 20% of the population in Batley & Spen being Muslim, and considerable dissatisfaction with Sir Keir Starmer's performance as opposition leader even with the "Boris effect" wearing off, Mr Galloway was expected to do well but had no realistic chance of winning, especially given how poorly he performed as an MP after winning the Bradford West by-election of 2012. His appeal to the socially conservative Muslim vote, especially with this by-election occurring only months after an incident involving alleged blasphemy at Batley Grammar School, not only split the Labour vote but in turn likely was enough to cost the Conservatives a widely-anticipated gain, since some Labour voters feared that Mr Galloway would win as a "dark horse" candidate at a time when both Labour and the Conservatives are not particularly popular, even though he in fact never had any realistic chance of winning, although it did blunt the effect of tactical voting that would normally be so strong in seats of this type.

Given the intense three-way campaign noted above, it was not surprising that none of the other candidates saved their deposit, although the Liberal Democrats did finish ahead of the Yorkshire Party despite the fact that Batley & Spen is not unfavourable territory for the Yorkshire Party by any means (they are much stronger across the former coalfields of South Yorkshire, however), and the fact that the Liberal Democrats have no base here outside of Cleckheaton. That base did however save them from a result that mirrored their terrible performances in Hartlepool (1.2%) and Airdrie & Shotts (1.0%); the Yorkshire Party had never before stood in the constituency either at local or parliamentary level so 2.2% can be considered respectable, but disappointing nearly two months after finishing a creditable third in the West Yorkshire Metro Mayor election, whose win by Tracy Brabin caused this by-election. Also of note is how low the "far-right" vote actually was in Batley & Spen, given its troubled history-the total votes polled by all candidates that can be reasonably considered "far-right", including UKIP, was a mere 538, accounting for just 1.45% of the total votes cast, and with most of them finishing behind Monster Raving Loony Party leader "Howling Laud" Hope, who only polled a risible 107 votes.

The Green Party was sadly absent from this by-election; their initially selected candidate, Ross Peltier, was disendorsed after offensive Tweets he had posted 10 years ago came to light; the disendorsement came 24 hours before nominations closed and no replacement Green Party candidate was selected. This proved to be of no help to the Alliance for Green Socialism's Mike Davies, who could not even beat Howling Laud Hope let alone win over any significant number of green-minded voters, and nor did the absence of a Green candidate in this by-election make any difference regarding the Liberal Democrats or the Yorkshire Party. The wooden spoon award for this by-election came surprisingly not to Jayda Fransen, an independent associated with Britain First, but to another "far-right" candidate, Susan Laird, who polled 17 votes fewer than even Ms Fransen's derisory total.

The heavy campaigning should have resulted in a higher-than-average turnout for a by-election, but the negative campaigning in fact was largely responsible for turnout dropping to 47.6%, even with the seat highly marginal due to the campaigning of Mr Galloway and the HWDI and Reform UK giving the Conservatives a clear run. It is also clear that Sir Keir will now not face an early challenge to this leadership, even though Labour were lucky this time.