Final election predictions for the December 2019 general election

Last month, I made a list of revised predictions for the 2019 general election, the most difficult to predict in modern British political history (i.e. since 1950).

However, even in the last seventeen days, the dynamics have changed significantly. The revised list of October 2019 was published before the "Unite to Remain" alliance was announced, and before Nigel Farage announced that the Brexit Party would withdraw from all 317 Conservative-held seats, which it did, prompting some Brexit Party candidates to stand as Independents. The Brexit Party is also not standing in the following 9 Labour-held seats in England (in addition to Chorley, contested by new Speaker of the House of Commons Sir Lindsay Hoyle, and furthermore the majority of seats in Scotland where the Remain vote is overall strongest of the four nations of the United Kingdom): Brent Central, Bristol North West, Canterbury, Dudley North, Ealing North, Ellesmere Port & Neston, Gateshead, Liverpool Walton, Newcastle-upon-Tyne East, and three of these (Bristol North West, Canterbury and Dudley North) are key seats at this election. It must be noted that in 2017, many Conservative MPs did not face a UKIP candidate or any other pro-Brexit candidate and that the same year 17 Conservative MPs were unseated despite no UKIP candidate or any other pro-Brexit candidate being on the ballot, a prominent example being Peterborough where Stewart Jackson was unseated by Labour's Fiona Onasanya despite UKIP withdrawing to tacitly support him there!

The "Unite to Remain" alliance list of seats includes a considerable number of clearly competitive seats, namely Arfon, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Bristol West, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Finchley & Golders Green, Guildford (where the sitting Conservative MP is standing as an Independent), Hazel Grove, Isle of Wight, North Norfolk, Oxford West & Abingdon, Portsmouth South (three-way contest), Richmond Park, Rushcliffe, South Cambridgeshire, Southport, Stroud (a three-way contest given the profile of Molly Scott-Cato MEP), Warriington South, Watford, Wells, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Wimbledon, Winchester and Ynys Mon. Bury St Edmunds can now be added to those ranks of key seats at this election since the Green Party candidate there, Helen Geake, was a presenter on Channel 4's Time Team making her famous outside politics as well.

As things now stand, Labour will only gain a handful of seats at most, and mainly due to demographic change than anything else. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats have comparatively far better prospects by comparison. The fact that the Brexit Party is contesting most seats which do not have a Conservative MP will for the most part not help the Conservatives' cause (save for almost ensuring that they hold ultra-marginal Thurrock), especially since UKIP were absent in many safe Conservative seats in 2017 (and in all but two of the six seats they gained from Labour in 2017) and only saved 40 deposits that year. There are also just fewer marginal seats than in previous elections, due to the way the Brexit issue has polarised the electorate and exacerbated cultural faultlines.

In Northern Ireland, similar pacts to "Unite to Remain" have spread there, with the Greens not standing any candidates in the city of Belfast, and in fact only 3 constituencies will have GPNI candidates: East Antrim, Strangford, and West Tyrone. There are also rare examples of pacts between the SDLP and Sinn Fein, to the point where not only will Sinn Fein back the SDLP in Belfast South and vice versa in Belfast North, but also neither party will stand in East Belfast or North Down, although neither nationalist party has ever saved their deposit in either constituency. Similar unionist pacts are also occurring for Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Belfast North, but unionist pacts are much more frequent in Northern Irish politics in general elections.

Although a lot can change during the final weeks of the campaign as notably seen in the last general election, this is nevertheless my final list of predictions (seats not listed here are assumed to be held by the party who won that seat in 2017):

Labour gain from Conservative (6):

Harrow East, Chingford & Woodford Green, Broxtowe, Chipping Barnet, Southport, Watford.

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative (12):

Cheadle, Guildford, Hazel Grove, Wimbledon, Cheltenham, St Ives, Wells, St Albans, Winchester, South Cambridgeshire, Richmond Park.

Green gain from Conservative (2):

Bury St Edmunds, Isle of Wight.

SNP gain from Conservative (9):

All Conservative held seats in Scotland except for Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, and West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine.

Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (4):

Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cambridge, Leeds North West, Portsmouth South, Sheffield Hallam.

Green gain from Labour (1):

Bristol West.

SNP gain from Labour (6):

All Labour-held seats in Scotland except Edinburgh South.

Conservative gain from Labour (14):

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Great Grimsby, Bishop Auckland, Barrow & Furness, Crewe & Nantwich, Derby North, Bassetlaw, Kensington, Wrexham, Dudley North, Canterbury, Warwick & Leamington.

Conservative gain from Speaker (1):

Buckingham.

Ashfield Independents gain from Labour (1):

Ashfield.

Speaker gain from Labour (1):

Chorley (a new/sitting Speaker has never lost a House of Commons election in living memory but I am required to include this gain nevertheless).

Plaid Cymru gain from Labour (1):

Ynys Mon.

Liberal Democrat gain from SNP (1):

North East Fife.

Sinn Fein gain from DUP (1):

Belfast North.

SDLP gain from DUP (1):

Belfast South.

UUP gain from Independent (1):

North Down.

SDLP gain from Sinn Fein (1):

Foyle.


In total, I therefore predict the following seat totals for the December 2019 general election: Conservative 304, Labour 239, SNP 49, Liberal Democrats 29, DUP 8, Sinn Fein 7, Plaid Cymru 5, Green 4, SDLP 2, UUP 1, Ashfield Independents 1, Speaker 1.

Errata: Portsmouth South should have been in the "Liberal Democrat gain from Labour" section of this post and has now been moved there.