My analysis of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of November 2019
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of November 2019 were as follows:
(07/11/19):
Chelmsford BC, Marconi: Liberal Democrats 563 (48.1%, -0.1%), Conservative 311 (26.6%, +0.4%), Labour 156 (13.3%, -12.3%), Independent (Chambers) 72 (6.1%), Green 69 (5.9%).
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Independent (Moorcroft) 552 (38.5%), Conservative 494 (34.5%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 250 (17.5%, -31.6%), Robyn Harris 13 (0.9%).
Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Labour 849 (40.8%, -10.2%), Conservative 536 (25.7%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 397 (19.1%, +10.0%), Green 237 (11.4%, +1.3%), WEP 40 (1.9%), Independent (Samuel) 23 (1.1%).
Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Independent (Alderman) 220 (36.2%), Conservative 128 (21.1%, -4.5%), Daphne Bush 58 (9.6%), Liberal Democrats 57 (9.4%), Independent (Hancock) 46 (7.6%, -2.6%), Independent (Stenson) 37 (6.1%), Independent (Edwards) 35 (5.8%), Independent (Grange) 25 (4.1%, -11.2%), Independent (Nutting) 1 (0.2%). Independent gain from another Independent.
(14/11/19):
Eden DC, Shap: Liberal Democrats 184 (48.5%, +17.3%), Conservative 128 (33.8%, -17.4%), Putting Cumbria First 67 (17.7%, +0.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Fife UA, Dunfermline Central (1st preference votes): SNP 1526 (33.1%, +3.4%), Conservative 1142 (24.8%, +0.7%), Liberal Democrats 1050 (22.8%, +15.9%), Labour 612 (13.5%, -13.1%), Green 235 (5.1%,+1.9%), Libertarian 28 (0.5%). SNP elected at stage 4.
Fife UA, Rosyth (1st preference votes): SNP 1347 (42.8%, +16.5%), Conservative 768 (24.4%, -2.3%), Labour 480 (15.2%, -4.3%), Liberal Democrats 249 (7.9%, -0.9%), Independent (MacIntyre) 157 (5.0%, +2.9%), Green 132 (4.2%, +0.7%), Libertarian 16 (0.5%). SNP elected at stage 4. [Previous Independents did not stand]
Highlands UA, Inverness Central: SNP 1015 (45.2%, +12.3%), Conservative 345 (15.3%, +2.9%), Independent (Paxton) 277 (12.3%), Liberal Democrats 237 (10.5%, +6.0%), Green 220 (9.8%, +3.7%), Labour 154 (6.9%, -10.0%). SNP elected at stage 2.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Rhos: Plaid Cymru 359 (53.9%, +23.1%), Conservative 162 (24.3%, +0.8%), Labour 145 (21.8%, -23.9%). Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.
Powys UA, St Mary's: Labour 344 (37.4%, +16.3%), Conservative 244 (26.5%, -14.9%), Plaid Cymru 130 (14.1%), Liberal Democrats 102 (11.1%, -16.3%), Independent 101 (11.0%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]
Torbay UA, Goodrinton with Roselands: Conservative 892 (49.3%, +17.6%), Liberal Democrats 641 (35.5%), Brexit Party 168 (9.3%), Labour 72 (4.0%, -3.2%), Green 35 (1.9%, -8.9%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. [UKIP did not stand]
Tunbridge Wells DC, Culverden: Liberal Democrats 888 (46.7%, +33.5%), Conservative 474 (24.9%, -19.1%), WEP 193 (10.2%), Tunbridge Wells Alliance 180 (9.5%), Labour 99 (5.2%, -14.3%), Green 67 (3.5%, -7.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]
(NB: Due to a lack of partisan candidates apart from one SNP candidate in one of the by-elections, the two by-elections in Shetland from 7 November 2019 are excluded from this list, as is the City of London Corporation by-election from 13 November 2019 which having a business franchise does not meet the requirements for a free and fair election anyway)
The first two weeks' worth of local by-elections this month are for the most part a shape of things to come in the 2019 general election, for whom nominations closed yesterday. However, the Brexit Party's withdrawal from all Conservative-held constituencies (discounting the fact that some will stand as Independents) will undoubtedly boost Conservative chances somewhat, even though in 2017 the Conservatives lost 17 seats where no UKIP candidate, nor any other pro-Brexit candidate, was on the ballot. In all 17 of these seats except Canterbury, the Brexit Party will be on the ballot this time around meaning that far from being assured of victory it is likely the Conservatives will lose seats overall and find extra votes shored up in already very safe Conservative seats; wasted votes are one of the biggest flaws of the first past the post system used for parliamentary elections in the UK.
Labour performed badly all around this past fortnight in terms of local by-elections, except strangely for St Mary's in Powys where their only stronghold of any sort is the town of Ystradgynlais in the far south of Brecon. Furthermore, Plaid Cymru has been performing well against Labour in particular, as symbolised by their gain of Rhos near Port Talbot where the Labour candidate finished a poor third the very same day.
The Greens did well given that the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats will cause problems for their potential, except for the squeeze they experienced in Torbay and Tunbridge Wells, two councils traditionally competitive between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats yet worlds apart in many ways. Torbay, like many seaside areas, is rather isolated and has significant pockets of deprivation; in voting terms it is mainly carrying over an "old liberal" tradition in the same manner as the somewhat more prosperous Southport. In that context the decisive Conservative gain was expected, even with a Brexit candidate contesting the by-election. By contrast, Tunbridge Wells is a prosperous and well-educated town popular with wealthy London commuters, so even though Tunbridge Wells as a constituency has remained Conservative since its creation this could all change in December, especially given how unpopular its council is at present.
There are many more Independent candidates in local elections than in parliamentary elections mainly due to the £500 deposit required to stand in parliamentary elections, and local credentials will be a key factor in Independent performance, as shown in Pembrokeshire when seven different Independents stood; the successful Independent had previously been a councillor. This general election also features the highest number of "whipless" Independent MPs standing for re-election in modern British history (five; the Independent Group for Change MPs do not count for this purpose).
(07/11/19):
Chelmsford BC, Marconi: Liberal Democrats 563 (48.1%, -0.1%), Conservative 311 (26.6%, +0.4%), Labour 156 (13.3%, -12.3%), Independent (Chambers) 72 (6.1%), Green 69 (5.9%).
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Independent (Moorcroft) 552 (38.5%), Conservative 494 (34.5%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 250 (17.5%, -31.6%), Robyn Harris 13 (0.9%).
Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Labour 849 (40.8%, -10.2%), Conservative 536 (25.7%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 397 (19.1%, +10.0%), Green 237 (11.4%, +1.3%), WEP 40 (1.9%), Independent (Samuel) 23 (1.1%).
Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Independent (Alderman) 220 (36.2%), Conservative 128 (21.1%, -4.5%), Daphne Bush 58 (9.6%), Liberal Democrats 57 (9.4%), Independent (Hancock) 46 (7.6%, -2.6%), Independent (Stenson) 37 (6.1%), Independent (Edwards) 35 (5.8%), Independent (Grange) 25 (4.1%, -11.2%), Independent (Nutting) 1 (0.2%). Independent gain from another Independent.
(14/11/19):
Eden DC, Shap: Liberal Democrats 184 (48.5%, +17.3%), Conservative 128 (33.8%, -17.4%), Putting Cumbria First 67 (17.7%, +0.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Fife UA, Dunfermline Central (1st preference votes): SNP 1526 (33.1%, +3.4%), Conservative 1142 (24.8%, +0.7%), Liberal Democrats 1050 (22.8%, +15.9%), Labour 612 (13.5%, -13.1%), Green 235 (5.1%,+1.9%), Libertarian 28 (0.5%). SNP elected at stage 4.
Fife UA, Rosyth (1st preference votes): SNP 1347 (42.8%, +16.5%), Conservative 768 (24.4%, -2.3%), Labour 480 (15.2%, -4.3%), Liberal Democrats 249 (7.9%, -0.9%), Independent (MacIntyre) 157 (5.0%, +2.9%), Green 132 (4.2%, +0.7%), Libertarian 16 (0.5%). SNP elected at stage 4. [Previous Independents did not stand]
Highlands UA, Inverness Central: SNP 1015 (45.2%, +12.3%), Conservative 345 (15.3%, +2.9%), Independent (Paxton) 277 (12.3%), Liberal Democrats 237 (10.5%, +6.0%), Green 220 (9.8%, +3.7%), Labour 154 (6.9%, -10.0%). SNP elected at stage 2.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Rhos: Plaid Cymru 359 (53.9%, +23.1%), Conservative 162 (24.3%, +0.8%), Labour 145 (21.8%, -23.9%). Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.
Powys UA, St Mary's: Labour 344 (37.4%, +16.3%), Conservative 244 (26.5%, -14.9%), Plaid Cymru 130 (14.1%), Liberal Democrats 102 (11.1%, -16.3%), Independent 101 (11.0%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]
Torbay UA, Goodrinton with Roselands: Conservative 892 (49.3%, +17.6%), Liberal Democrats 641 (35.5%), Brexit Party 168 (9.3%), Labour 72 (4.0%, -3.2%), Green 35 (1.9%, -8.9%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. [UKIP did not stand]
Tunbridge Wells DC, Culverden: Liberal Democrats 888 (46.7%, +33.5%), Conservative 474 (24.9%, -19.1%), WEP 193 (10.2%), Tunbridge Wells Alliance 180 (9.5%), Labour 99 (5.2%, -14.3%), Green 67 (3.5%, -7.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]
(NB: Due to a lack of partisan candidates apart from one SNP candidate in one of the by-elections, the two by-elections in Shetland from 7 November 2019 are excluded from this list, as is the City of London Corporation by-election from 13 November 2019 which having a business franchise does not meet the requirements for a free and fair election anyway)
The first two weeks' worth of local by-elections this month are for the most part a shape of things to come in the 2019 general election, for whom nominations closed yesterday. However, the Brexit Party's withdrawal from all Conservative-held constituencies (discounting the fact that some will stand as Independents) will undoubtedly boost Conservative chances somewhat, even though in 2017 the Conservatives lost 17 seats where no UKIP candidate, nor any other pro-Brexit candidate, was on the ballot. In all 17 of these seats except Canterbury, the Brexit Party will be on the ballot this time around meaning that far from being assured of victory it is likely the Conservatives will lose seats overall and find extra votes shored up in already very safe Conservative seats; wasted votes are one of the biggest flaws of the first past the post system used for parliamentary elections in the UK.
Labour performed badly all around this past fortnight in terms of local by-elections, except strangely for St Mary's in Powys where their only stronghold of any sort is the town of Ystradgynlais in the far south of Brecon. Furthermore, Plaid Cymru has been performing well against Labour in particular, as symbolised by their gain of Rhos near Port Talbot where the Labour candidate finished a poor third the very same day.
The Greens did well given that the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats will cause problems for their potential, except for the squeeze they experienced in Torbay and Tunbridge Wells, two councils traditionally competitive between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats yet worlds apart in many ways. Torbay, like many seaside areas, is rather isolated and has significant pockets of deprivation; in voting terms it is mainly carrying over an "old liberal" tradition in the same manner as the somewhat more prosperous Southport. In that context the decisive Conservative gain was expected, even with a Brexit candidate contesting the by-election. By contrast, Tunbridge Wells is a prosperous and well-educated town popular with wealthy London commuters, so even though Tunbridge Wells as a constituency has remained Conservative since its creation this could all change in December, especially given how unpopular its council is at present.
There are many more Independent candidates in local elections than in parliamentary elections mainly due to the £500 deposit required to stand in parliamentary elections, and local credentials will be a key factor in Independent performance, as shown in Pembrokeshire when seven different Independents stood; the successful Independent had previously been a councillor. This general election also features the highest number of "whipless" Independent MPs standing for re-election in modern British history (five; the Independent Group for Change MPs do not count for this purpose).
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