My analysis of local by-elections from the week of 28/10/19

The local by-election analyses still continue, even with a general election looming.

Unusually, the three local by-elections in Britain this week took place on different days: Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (which is of course the usual day for British elections; a plan to hold this year's general election on Monday 9th December instead of Thursday 12th December was turned down in Parliament at the amendment stage). Their results were as follows:

(29/10/2019):

Warwick DC, Leamington Lillington: Liberal Democrats 1296 (55.3%, +7.4%), Conservative 664 (28.3%, +11.6%), Labour 384 (16.4%, -6.5%). [Greens did not stand]

(30/10/2019):

Windsor & Maidenhead BC, Maidenhead Riverside: Conservative 794 (41.0%, +5.6%), Liberal Democrats 566 (29.3%, +9.5%), The Borough First 428 (22.6%, -5.4%) Labour 70 (3.6%, -4.0%), Green 60 (3.1%, -5.9%), WEP 16 (0.8%).

(31/10/19):

Worcestershire CC, Bromsgrove South: Conservative 769 (40.2%, -0.3%), Independent (Jenkins) 436 (22.8%), Liberal Democrats 357 (18.7%, +13.7%), Labour 351 (18.3%, -32.2%). Conservative gain from Labour

Labour did poorly in all three by-elections, but the Bromsgrove South by-election stands out as a complete disaster for Labour. Labour not only lost the division but fell to fourth place, despite an Independent district councillor running which in a town like Bromsgrove would normally adversely affect the Conservative vote. Arguably, it can be said that the Liberal Democrats, despite clearly not being in contention in Bromsgrove South, made the biggest impact of all.

The Liberal Democrats on the other hand, performed well even though in the first by-election of this week a Liberal Democrat hold was a foregone conclusion, given how well-educated Royal Leamington Spa's population is (which also explains why in terms of house prices it is the most expensive town in the West Midlands, besides Sutton Coldfield), whilst in the latter two a Liberal Democrat win was not a realistic prospect, especially given how badly the Conservatives polled in May in prosperous southeastern areas; it is clear from by-elections of the last five months that they have recovered somewhat from their drubbing, even where they had no chance of winning anyway. Maidenhead is an archetypal example of this, being represented at parliamentary level by former Prime Minister Theresa May.

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