My analysis of British local by-elections from 21/11/19
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 21 November 2019 were as follows:
Aberdeen UA, Torry & Feryhill (1st preference votes): SNP 1618 (43.2%, +11.8%), Conservative 972 (26.0%, +2.1%), Labour 395 (10.6%, -12.8%), Liberal Democrats 315 (8.4%, -2.3%), Green 304 (8.1%, +3.3%), Independent (McLean) 86 (2.3%), UKIP 53 (1.4%, +0.5%). SNP elected at stage 6.
Cardiff UA, Llanishen: Conservative 1566 (43.4%, +6.3%), Labour 1254 (34.7%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 387 (10.7%, +3.1%), Plaid Cymru 209 (5.8%, +3.1%), Green 138 (3.8%, -3.0%), Independent (Gwynn) 59 (1.6%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Chichester DC, Loxwood: Conservative 1005 (61.8%, +17.4%), Liberal Democrats 486 (29.9%, -25.7%), Green 126 (7.7%), Patria 9 (0.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.
Moray UA, Keith & Cullen (1st preference votes): Conservative 1142 (41.5%, +7.1%), SNP 1047 (38.1%, -0.7%), Independent (Robson) 349 (12.7%, +3.3%), Liberal Democrats 212 (7.7%). Conservative gain from Independent at stage 3. [Other Independent did not stand]
West Lancashire DC, Birch Green: Labour 390 (60.8%, -28.0%), Skelmersdale Independents 191 (29.8%), Conservative 60 (9.4%, -1.8%). All changes are since May.
West Sussex CC, Bourne: Conservative 1368 (48.9%, +8.7%), Liberal Democrats 1009 (36.0%, +16.5%), Green 250 (8.9%, +2.0%), Labour 161 (5.8%, -2.1%), Patria 12 (0.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
With just 20 days before polling day for this general election, this week of local by-elections has been a strong one for the Conservatives, even in Aberdeen where they have been having significant local troubles. Their parliamentary candidate for Aberdeen North, Ryan Houghton, was suspended on Tuesday, just five days after nominations closed, after anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and homophobic comments he made on social media were discovered. And in Aberdeen South, Ross Thomson stood down after only one term as a Conservative MP following an allegation of sexual assault from Glasgow North East's Labour MP, Paul Sweeney. The Conservatives also performed very well in the Scottish local elections in 2017 under the leadership of Ruth Davidson, whose leadership of the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party played a major role in the 12 Conservative gains in Scotland in the general election the month afterwards. In this context an increase in the Conservative vote in the competitive Torry & Ferryhill is rather surprising, although it was the SNP who absorbed the Labour votes necessary to win the seat. The SNP stands to win back many of the seats it lost in 2017 on anti-Conservative tactical voting, especially with Labour not supporting the idea of a second Scottish independence referendum within the lifetime of the next Parliament. In the north of Scotland, the "unionist vs nationalist" electoral divide will remain the decisive factor, as shown in Moray where the absence of one Independent candidate who had stood in Keith & Cullen in 2017 aided a Conservative gain as opposed to an expected SNP gain.
The Conservative gain of Llanishen, within the boundaries of the critical marginal seat of Cardiff North, one of the seats the Conservatives need to recapture to gain a working majority, was just as important psephologically. In this middle of the road suburban ward, both the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, who have otherwise limited support here (their only area of strength in Cardiff is in Cardiff West), cut into the Labour vote enough for a narrow Conservative gain to occur.
Meanwhile, the 28.7% swing against Labour by the Skelmersdale Independents in West Lancashire show that Labour are continuing to lower their guard in traditional Labour areas they still believe to be safe for them, even when localist Independents in other such areas have undermined Labour at a local and national level e.g. amongst the former coalfields of Nottinghamshire.
Finally, the reversal of fortunes for the Liberal Democrats in villages of Chichester close to the city of Chichester itself may mean that pro-Liberal Democrat swings based on affluent pro-Remain voters abandoning the Conservatives in their thousands will be somewhat blunted, although considerable Liberal Democrat gains from the Conservatives are still expected, especially in the suburbs of Greater London and Greater Manchester.
Aberdeen UA, Torry & Feryhill (1st preference votes): SNP 1618 (43.2%, +11.8%), Conservative 972 (26.0%, +2.1%), Labour 395 (10.6%, -12.8%), Liberal Democrats 315 (8.4%, -2.3%), Green 304 (8.1%, +3.3%), Independent (McLean) 86 (2.3%), UKIP 53 (1.4%, +0.5%). SNP elected at stage 6.
Cardiff UA, Llanishen: Conservative 1566 (43.4%, +6.3%), Labour 1254 (34.7%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 387 (10.7%, +3.1%), Plaid Cymru 209 (5.8%, +3.1%), Green 138 (3.8%, -3.0%), Independent (Gwynn) 59 (1.6%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Chichester DC, Loxwood: Conservative 1005 (61.8%, +17.4%), Liberal Democrats 486 (29.9%, -25.7%), Green 126 (7.7%), Patria 9 (0.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.
Moray UA, Keith & Cullen (1st preference votes): Conservative 1142 (41.5%, +7.1%), SNP 1047 (38.1%, -0.7%), Independent (Robson) 349 (12.7%, +3.3%), Liberal Democrats 212 (7.7%). Conservative gain from Independent at stage 3. [Other Independent did not stand]
West Lancashire DC, Birch Green: Labour 390 (60.8%, -28.0%), Skelmersdale Independents 191 (29.8%), Conservative 60 (9.4%, -1.8%). All changes are since May.
West Sussex CC, Bourne: Conservative 1368 (48.9%, +8.7%), Liberal Democrats 1009 (36.0%, +16.5%), Green 250 (8.9%, +2.0%), Labour 161 (5.8%, -2.1%), Patria 12 (0.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
With just 20 days before polling day for this general election, this week of local by-elections has been a strong one for the Conservatives, even in Aberdeen where they have been having significant local troubles. Their parliamentary candidate for Aberdeen North, Ryan Houghton, was suspended on Tuesday, just five days after nominations closed, after anti-Semitic, Islamophobic and homophobic comments he made on social media were discovered. And in Aberdeen South, Ross Thomson stood down after only one term as a Conservative MP following an allegation of sexual assault from Glasgow North East's Labour MP, Paul Sweeney. The Conservatives also performed very well in the Scottish local elections in 2017 under the leadership of Ruth Davidson, whose leadership of the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party played a major role in the 12 Conservative gains in Scotland in the general election the month afterwards. In this context an increase in the Conservative vote in the competitive Torry & Ferryhill is rather surprising, although it was the SNP who absorbed the Labour votes necessary to win the seat. The SNP stands to win back many of the seats it lost in 2017 on anti-Conservative tactical voting, especially with Labour not supporting the idea of a second Scottish independence referendum within the lifetime of the next Parliament. In the north of Scotland, the "unionist vs nationalist" electoral divide will remain the decisive factor, as shown in Moray where the absence of one Independent candidate who had stood in Keith & Cullen in 2017 aided a Conservative gain as opposed to an expected SNP gain.
The Conservative gain of Llanishen, within the boundaries of the critical marginal seat of Cardiff North, one of the seats the Conservatives need to recapture to gain a working majority, was just as important psephologically. In this middle of the road suburban ward, both the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, who have otherwise limited support here (their only area of strength in Cardiff is in Cardiff West), cut into the Labour vote enough for a narrow Conservative gain to occur.
Meanwhile, the 28.7% swing against Labour by the Skelmersdale Independents in West Lancashire show that Labour are continuing to lower their guard in traditional Labour areas they still believe to be safe for them, even when localist Independents in other such areas have undermined Labour at a local and national level e.g. amongst the former coalfields of Nottinghamshire.
Finally, the reversal of fortunes for the Liberal Democrats in villages of Chichester close to the city of Chichester itself may mean that pro-Liberal Democrat swings based on affluent pro-Remain voters abandoning the Conservatives in their thousands will be somewhat blunted, although considerable Liberal Democrat gains from the Conservatives are still expected, especially in the suburbs of Greater London and Greater Manchester.
Comments
Post a Comment