Alan's Green Thoughts

Yesterday, Parliament voted 438-20 to affirm that there will be a general election in the United Kingdom on 12 December 2019, marking the third United Kingdom general election in less than five years. In the run-up to this election, as many as 52 MPs have announced they will be standing down, most notably including Father of the House and former Chancellor Kenneth Clarke and John Bercow, Speaker of the House of Commons since 2010. 18 of these MPs were first elected since 2010 and thus post-expenses scandal. Brexit-related stress has undoubtedly been responsible for many of these retirements, and the deprivation of the whip simply for voting against a no-deal Brexit prompted the retirement of a few Conservative MPs, including Nicholas Soames and Rory Stewart. With many incumbents who have lost the whip for one reason or another choosing to stand as Independents and with the additional factor of Liberal Democrat MPs (specifically those who were originally elected as Labour or Conse...

The Thuringian election of 2019 is a notable one in the modern political history of German Landtag state elections. It was the first Landtag election in the modern era of German politics (i.e. since the reunification of Germany in 1990) where neither the Christian Democratic Union nor the Social Democratic Party of Germany finished in the top two, and the first where Die Linke topped the poll. Notably, Die Linke in Thuringia (Thüringen) is led by Bodo Ramelow, one of the more moderate Die Linke politicians, and he has acquired a strong personal vote along the way. For the third consecutive Thuringian election, Die Linke improved on its vote share and seats won, bucking the trend in former East German states, especially Brandenburg and Saxony. Die Linke polled 31%, the highest in any former East German Land in the modern German political era, giving it 29 seats. Although this is just one more seat than they won in 2014, they have been sliding badly in the other four Landtags of the ...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 24 October 2019 were as follows: Daventry DC, Abbey North: Conservative 376 (41.0%, +13.9%), Liberal Democrats 280 (30.5%, +9.7%) , Labour 262 (28.5%, -11.3%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP and Independents did not stand] Devon CC, Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Labour 1032 (31.9%, -19.4%), Conservative 992 (30.7%, -0.7%), Liberal Democrats 576 (17.8%, +11.%1), Green 567 (17.4%, +11.5%), For Britain 70 (2.2%). [UKIP did not stand] Flintshire UA, Bagilt West: Labour 251 (63.5%), Independent (Stanley) 144 (36.5%). Powys UA, Llandrindod North: Liberal Democrats 226 (47.2%), Conservative 164 (34.2%, -19.6%), Labour 89 (18.6%, -1.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Green Party did not stand] Powys UA, Newtown South: Conservative 134 (43.5%, -11.4%), Liberal Democrats 110 (35.7%), Plaid Cymru 64 (20.8%, -8.7%). [No Independents this time] South Ribble DC, Coupe Green & Gregson Lane: Conservative 43...

Green waves have been sweeping much of Europe in elections of all kinds. The Swiss general election on Sunday, however, saw in effect two green waves-one from the Green Party of Switzerland and another from their rivals, the Green Liberals, who split from the former in 2005. Switzerland was the very first country in the world to elect a Green MP, doing so in 1979, the same year our own Green Party (then called the Ecology Party) fielded enough candidates to receive a party political broadcast, and the Greens have received one in every British general election since. This year, the Greens won 28 seats, 2 1/2 times more than in 2015, and the Green Liberals more than doubled their seat total from 7 to 16. Although their vote share increases were by just 6.1% and 3.2% respectively, the cantonal system meant it translated to seat surges, although the half-cantons (which have only one seat apiece meaning elections there are effectively by first past the post) sadly remained beyond thei...

The Canadian federal election of 2019 did not result in the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals-but it did result in Justin Trudeau losing his majority in the Canadian House of Commons. Controversy over Justin Trudeau's use of brownface (in 2001 before he became the MP for the riding of Papineau) during the Liberals' campaign, a failure to deliver on promised electoral reform, and the SNC-Lavalin Affair were key reasons for the Liberals' loss of support, although in the end they emerged with 157 seats out of 338, losing only 27 despite incurring a 6.4% decrease in their vote share, although this was most pronounced in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the most Conservative provinces of Canada, and Quebec in the rural ridings. One key province where the Liberals did relatively well was Ontario, due to Premier Doug Ford's rising unpopularity, where they made a net loss of only one seat (they lost four ridings to the Conservatives, but gained two ridings from them...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 17 October 2019 were as follows: Gravesham BC, Westcourt: Conservative 492 (50.1%, +20.9%), Labour 314 (32.0%, -5.5%), UKIP 116 (11.8%, -11.1%), Green 60 (6.1%). Conservative gain from Labour. [No Description candidate did not stand] Liverpool MBC, Princes Park: Labour 1259 (73.1%, +0.9%), Green 237 (13.8%, -4.6%), Liberal Democrats 148 (8.6%, +3.2%), Conservative 79 (4.6%, +1.6%). All changes are since May. [Liberal Party did not stand] North Yorkshire CC, Upper Dales: Conservative 884 (45.7%, +16.2%), Independent (McMullion) 741 (38.3%), Liberal Democrats 204 (10.5%), Green 107 (5.5%, +0.4%). Conservative gain from Independent [Other Independent and Labour did not stand] Richmondshire DC, Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swarfdale:  Independent (McMullion) 409 (58.7%), Conservative 231 (33.1%), Green 57 (8.2%). Independent gain from other Independent. The Westcourt by-election in Gravesham marks the first Conserva...

The most recent Polish parliamentary election, which took place yesterday, resulted in surprisingly little change overall, despite more opposition parties entering the Sejm (Polish Parliament). The national conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) retained its single-party majority in the Sejm, polling 43.6%; however, it did lose 9 seats (still leaving it with 235) when taking other parties it allied with in 2015 and also PiS lost its majority in the Senate, which unlike the Sejm elects its members by first past the post instead of proportional representation via constituencies, usually voivodeships (small provinces). PiS did not start off well, with its proposal for a very restrictive abortion law rejected in the Sejm and its attempt to undermine judicial independence via a judicial restructuring bill being vetoed by Polish President Andrzej Duda, despite President Duda originally being from the same Law and Justice Party that proposed the bill in question. It has also changed P...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 3 October and 10 October 2019 were as follows: (3/10/19): Aberdeen UA, Bridge of Don (1st preferences, double by-election): Conservative 1857(36.2%, +10.3%), SNP 1797 (35.0%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 929 (18.1%, +8.8%), Labour 305 (5.9%, -5.2%) Green 140 (2.7%), UKIP 55 (1.1%), Independent (McLean) 43 (0.8%, -0.1%), Red Party 9 (0.2%). Conservative and SNP elected at stages 5 and 6. [Other Independents did not stand] Cardiff UA, Whitchurch & Tongynlais: Conservative 1544 (36.4%, -4.5%), Labour 1190 (28.0%, -10.0%), Plaid Cymru 674 (15.9%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 588 (13.9%, +6.3%), Green 248 (5.8%). Charnwood DC, Syston West: Conservative 406 (44.7%, -6.4%), Green 389 (42.8%, +19.4%), Labour 114 (12.5%, -13.0%). Essex CC, Clacton East: Independent (Stephenson) 1231 (36.9%), Conservative 1223 (36.6%, +5.4%), Holland-on-Sea Matters 537 (16.1%), Liberal Democrats 140 (4....

The Portuguese parliamentary election of 2019, which took place yesterday, was widely recognised as a convincing victory for the Socialist Party (PS) government of Antonio Costa; with 106 seats the Socialists finished only 8 seats short of an overall majority, which is almost impossible to achieve in Portugal due to way its parliamentary seats are distributed and the wide divide between the capital, Lisbon, the major city of Porto, the rural heartlands in the east, and the relatively poor south. A redistribution has widened this divide, with Lisbon and Porto gaining one seat apiece, with two rural districts of Viseu and Guarda losing one seat apiece; Lisbon and Porto alone elect 38.2% of Portugal's MPs (Lisbon elects 48 MPs, Porto 40 MPs), which is why leaders from significant Portuguese political parties almost invariably stand in either Lisbon or Porto. The Socialist victory in Portugal was in fact not particularly significant; its vote share increased by only 4.4% and single-p...

You may be wondering why I have missed out some elections whilst covering many others. Writing up electoral analyses for publication is by no means easy, and elections need to be free and fair for the analysis to be a useful indication of why people voted the way they did in that election, and how the demographics affect election results and explain differences between electoral districts, and the effects of personal votes upon voters' choices, and actual choices need to exist. Internationally recognised sovereignty is also important in making sure the election can have an impact and make a significant difference (whether or not it does in the end is another story), as is freedom from internal or external interference. Elections in some countries do not meet these requirements, meaning that an electoral analysis would not be a useful or reliable indication of the political mood in that country. The following types of elections are not included in my electoral analyses: 1. E...