Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows: Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannan Central (1st preference votes): SNP 865 (40.9%,, +2.6%), Labour 675 (31.9%, -8.0%), Conservative 419 (19.8%, +3.2%), UKIP 69 (3.3%), Green 53 (2.5%, -2.7%), Liberal Democrats 36 (1.7%). SNP hold at stage 6. Sutton LBC, Wallington North: Liberal Democrats 1039 (38.2%, -7.7%), Conservative 709 (26.1%, +0.5%), Independent (Sawyer) 381 (14.0%), Labour 301 (11.1%, -5.6%), Green 166 (6.1%, -2.3%), UKIP 104 (3.8%, +0.5%), CPA 17 (0.6%). The SNP were able to regain some lost ground in Clackmannanshire due to Labour's stances on Brexit being mainly for partisan advantage and not on principle, which also helped them hold the seat. However, despite their intransigence on Brexit, which the SNP opposes, the swing from Labour to SNP was only 5.3%. The Scottish Greens found themselves squeezed by the SNP's small recovery. In Greater London, localist politics is mainly confin...

This month marks 30 years since the tragic and untimely death of F(rederick) W(alter) S(cott) Craig, who can be regarded as the first British psephologist. His reference books about election results have been an inspiration to me and continue to be. His compilation of election results, along with details of independent candidates, have provided fascinating insights into Britain's political history. What is more, his books were able to cover a period of 151 years, from the inception of the Great Reform Act of 1832 right up to 1983 after which extensive boundary changes occurred due to constituencies from that period using new local government boundaries. Much of his reporting inspired the works of successor psephologists like David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh, famous for their works on British general elections albeit told in a storylike way as well as in a statistically analytical way. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have continued his work to this day. Whilst...

The New South Wales state election in Australia, taking place on Saturday (NB: Australian election counts take a very long time to complete even at state level, just so you know), surprisingly if narrowly returned the Liberal/National Coalition for a third time in New South Wales, although their majority was sharply reduced to just 3 seats. The Morrison federal government is still not faring well amongst Australians; it is only slightly behind Labor but this is bad news given that Labor is faring better in the final counts in crucial electorates. In NSW, Labor faced many woes; their former leader, Luke Foley, retired from the NSW legislature after only one term following allegations of sexual harassment by ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) journalist Ashleigh Raper. Their new leader, Michael Daly, has only led NSW Labor for under five months and thus had relatively little time to campaign beforehand. Nevertheless, Labor's vote share decreased by only 0.9% and they did cap...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 21st March were as follows: Basildon BC, Vange: Labour 504 (51.3%, +10.1%), Conservative 478 (48.7%, +27.2%). All changes are since 2016. Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: Liberal Democrats 1115 (63.3%, +8.4%), Labour 366 (20.7%, -7.2%), Independent (Drion) 155 (8.8%), Conservative 128 (7.3%, -10.0%). Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Labour 719 (55.3%, -15.5%), Conservative 306 (23.5%, +2.5%), Liberal Democrats 146 (11.2%, +3.1%), UKIP 68 (5.2%), Green 61 (4.7%). Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Independent (Owen) 282 (40.3%, +22.3%), Labour 268 (38.3%, -14.7%), UKIP 68 (12.3%, +3.6%), Conservative 49 (7.0%, -8.0%), SDP 14 (2.0%). Independent gain from Labour. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Southend-on-Sea UA, Milton: Labour 833 (49.9%, -0.7%), Conservative 528 (31.6%, -0.7%), Liberal Democrats 219 (13.2%, +8.6%), For Britain 89 (5.3%). [Independents and Greens did not stand] Thurrock...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight were as follows: (07/03/19): Aylesbury DC, Haddenham & Stone: Green 1210 (50.8%, +36.7%), Conservative 781 (32.8%, -6.3%), Liberal Democrats 333 (14.0%, -0.1%), Labour 59 (2.5%). Green gain from Conservative [UKIP and Independents did not stand] (14/03/19): Croydon LBC, Norbury & Pollards Hill: Labour 1379 (64.5%, -3.2%), Conservative 324 (15.2%, -7.0%), Independent (O'Grady) 162 (7.6%), Green 91 (4.3%, -5.9%), Independent (Roznerska) 72 (3.4%), Liberal Democrats 70 (3.3%), UKIP 40 (1.9%). Durham UA, Wingate: Labour 458 (64.1%, -9.6%), Liberal Democrats 163 (22.8%, +20.1%), North East Party 74 (10.3%, +0.4%), For Britain 20 (1.8%). [Conservatives did not stand] Southampton UA, Coxford: Labour 668 (26.3%, -1.9%), Conservative 529 (20.8%, +4.4%), Liberal Democrats 450 (17.7%, +14.7%), Socialist Alternative 368 (14.5%), Integrity Southampton 178 (7.0%), Independent (McQuillian/Lambert*), 174...

The recent votes on amendments to the current Brexit strategy have shown a rather chaotic and unpredictable pattern. There is such a thing as chaos theory, after all, and the Brexit votes this week have shown it is more than mere theory. After rejecting Theresa May's deal with the EU again, by a margin of 149 votes, Parliament then voted to stop Britain leaving the European Union under any circumstances yesterday by a knife-edge margin of 4 votes, however today it heavily rejected a motion for a second referendum, a motion on which most Labour MPs abstained (25 Labour MPs voted in favour, with 18 voting against), rejected a motion to stop the current deal being voted on a third time (a third vote will happen next week) voted down by just 2 votes a motion that would have given Parliament real control over the Brexit process in a bitter blow for British democracy, and rejected by just 16 votes an amendment that would have immediately sought an extension to Article 50. This came jus...

Yesterday, Estonia held its 2019 parliamentary election, notable for a shift towards progressivism and liberalism. The Reform Party maintained its pole position, aided by e-democracy and excellent support in the cities. In fact, it managed to increase its seat total by 4 with 28.9%, critical for ensuring they will be the leading partners in any coalition. It also means Kaja Kallas, daughter of former Estonian Prime Minister Siim Kallas, will become Estonia's first ever female Prime Minister. The current Estonian PM by comparison, Juri Ratas, has proven rather staid and uninspired, which is why the Centre Party lost ground after he succeeded Taavi Roivas in 2016, although it was neck and neck with Reform in opinion polls leading up to this election. To their credit the Centre Party only lost 1 seat and remained in second place. Juri's coalition partners, Pro Patria, and the Social Democrats, lost 2 and 5 seats respectively although social democracy as a political force is i...

Readers, the results of the Berkeley Vale by-election in Stroud, the only local British by-election to occur yesterday, were as follows: Stroud DC, Berkeley Vale: Conservative 993 (49.8%, +2.4%), Labour 686 (34.4%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 231 (11.6%, -0.9%), Green 82 (4.1%, -5.1%). Given the rural nature of this ward the swings were unsurprisingly low, despite more Brexit woes; the latest story being plans to hand responsibility for delivering vital medical equipment to a company that could not even source enough chicken for KFC! Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, three important federal by-elections took place in Canada on Tuesday, one of which involved the resignation of former NDP (New Democratic Party) leader Tom Mulcair and another where the new NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, intended to enter the Canadian House of Commons. The next Canadian federal election is in October, only eight months away, and the polls show a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives. In the Out...