Alan's Green Thoughts

As this turbulent decade draws to a close with just 10 days to go before the end of 2019, it has seen many profound and remarkable changes. The Arab Spring, the EU referendum in Britain, the 2016 US Presidential election, and declarations of climate emergencies around the world stand out in particular. This decade's changes will prove to be far more lasting than those of the last decade.   The next decade, the 2020s, will be the most critical for us all as the effects of man-made climate change become more profound and the need for us to move to a more sustainable lifestyle and society, even if phase by phase, is now evident. Things cannot continue as they are and we must heal the old divides that permeate our society and economy in order to achieve the green transition that is fair for everyone and achieves a better redistribution of resources, whilst also ensuring better equality and opportunity. If we do not act in time, this century could be the last homo sapiens sapiens ...

Welcome to the final part of my analysis of the 2019 British general election. What overall have we learned from it?   This is clearly a realignment and pivotal election, one which has not only seen the end of decades-long dominance of particular types of constituency but which has also seen the end of many long great parliamentary careers, not only of MPs who have retired such as Kenneth Clarke but also those who were defeated at this election. Dennis Skinner and Frank Field were by no means the only long-serving MPs to be defeated-David Hanson, Roger Godsiff, Richard Burden, Sir David Crausby, Dominic Grieve, Caroline Flint, Ivan Lewis, Vernon Coaker, Mike Gapes, Gordon Marsden and Tom Brake had all been elected before the New Millennium as well, meaning that as many as 13 of the 73 MPs defeated this year had been MPs for more than 20 years. Sir Peter Bottomley, the new Father of the House, is the only remaining Conservative MP elected before Margaret Thatcher be...

The developments of Northern Ireland are of special importance to the 2019 British general election, as Brexit could trigger the reunification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who gave confidence and supply to the Conservatives when Theresa May was Prime Minister, found themselves on the wrong end of the Remain/Leave divide outside County Antrim. The DUP's leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, lost his seat of Belfast North to Sinn Fein's John Finucane after 18 years in Parliament. Mr Finucane, the son of human rights lawyer Patrick Finucane who was murdered by loyalist paramilitaries in 1989, was backed by the Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) in an unprecedented nationalist alliance. This means that Belfast North, whose nationalist population is growing, has a nationalist MP for the first time in its history. Furthermore moderates in Northern Ireland are increasingly turning to the non-sectarian Alliance Party, who retu...

Within the British general election of 2019, the developments in Scotland in particular were in stark contrast to England and Wales. The Conservatives not only failed to gain any seats in Scotland but also lost seven of their 13 seats to the Scottish National Party (SNP). The five Conservative MPs defeated in Scotland were Colin Clark, Luke Graham, Kirstene Hair, Stephen Kerr, and Paul Masterson, in the seats of Gordon, Ochil & South Perthshire, Angus, Stirling, and East Renfrewshire respectively. The SNP also gained Aberdeen South and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock from the Conservatives where those seats' incumbents retired (in Ross Thomson's case this was due to an allegation of groping from now ex-MP Paul Sweeney). Pete Wishart, who held on by only 21 votes over the Conservatives in Perth & North Perthshire in 2017, managed a 7% swing in his favour. However, in the strongly unionist Scottish Borders and in rural Aberdeenshire, the least pro-Remain part of Scotla...

Due to the unfair and disproportionate first past the post system Britain uses for parliamentary elections, smaller parties get squeezed out of seats in most areas. However the Remain/Leave issue as well as the climate crisis issue caused substantial increases in support for smaller parties. Given their excellent performance in May and the climate crisis becoming more and more prominent, the Green Party should have achieved a record high result at this election. Caroline Lucas achieved a record majority of 19,940 (34.6%) in Brighton Pavilion. As it turns out, it was only the Greens' second best ever election result despite benefitting from the Liberal Democrats standing down for them in as many as 10 constituencies (Plaid Cymru also stood down for them in the Vale of Glamorgan). They also did not win any extra seats in the House of Commons although they did finish a good second in Bristol West and Dulwich & West Norwood. Despite moderate Labour voters rejecting Jeremy Co...

The 2019 general election in Great Britain will be remembered for three pivotal events: the wipe-out of Labour in its old northern and Midlands heartlands (outside the big cities), the re-election of one of the most extreme Conservative governments of modern times, and the quashing of any hopes for a re-run of the EU referendum or stopping Brexit. The surprise exit poll proved to be almost entirely accurate-it predicted a Conservative majority of 86 and the final Conservative majority was 80, the biggest since 1987; they won 365 seats, just 11 fewer than in 1987, one of Margaret Thatcher's infamous treble-figure landslide victories (the other being 1983, of course). The Conservatives gained 47 seats overall; however, it was the type of seats they gained from Labour that stood out most of all. Their capture of Blyth Valley, a former mining seat which had been held by Labour since 1935, set the tone for the entire election, which saw them gain the following Labour strongholds that ...

Yesterday, renowned British conservationist David Bellamy passed away, aged 86. David Bellamy was best known for his passion about nature and inspiring a whole generation to genuinely care about protecting and conserving the environment for future generation. He was famous for programmes such as Don't Ask Me and Bellamy and Botany, and became a household name in British nature documentaries. He also lectured in botany at the University of Durham. David's work on conservation was tireless and he proved himself willing to be arrested to stand up for conservation, such as when he blockaded the Franklin River in 1984 in protest against a proposed dam. However, his opposition to wind farms despite previous support for wind power and criticism of climate change (in addition to the fact he stood for the Referendum Party in 1997) tarnished his reputation amongst environmentalists and younger naturalists and after 2005 his public appearances dramatically decreased compared to those...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 28 November 2019 and 5 December 2019 were as follows: (28/11/19):   North Norfolk DC, Sheringham North: Liberal Democrats (48.4%, -15.0%), Conservative (43.0%, +17.8%), Labour (8.6%, -2.8%). Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford: Green 998 (40.9%, +30.0%), Conservative 755 (31.0%, +6.9%), Independent (Hornsby) 483 (19.8%), Labour 202 (8.3%, -4.2%). Green gain from Independent. [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Lambrook: Liberal Democrats 622 (57.8%, +25.6%), Conservative 455 (42.2%, -3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour and Greens did not stand]   (05/12/19): Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynyshir: Labour 407 (55.1%, +17.7%), Plaid Cymru 331 (44.9%, -17.7%). Labour gain from Plaid Cymru. With only six days to go now before polling day, these four local by-elections from the last two weeks provide a useful insight into what is likely to happen in the general election, even ...

The Namibian general election of 2019, much like recent South African elections, resulted in a substantial loss of support for the dominant big tent independence party, SWAPO (South West Africa Peoples' Organisation, referring to the fact that Namibia was called South West Africa until it obtained independence from South Africa in 1990). Hage Geingob, the incumbent SWAPO-backed President of Namibia, was re-elected in the first round but he only obtained 56.3% of the vote, the lowest vote share ever by a SWAPO Presidential candidate; by comparison he polled 86.7% of the vote in 2014. This was largely due to the intervention of Panduleni Itula, a former SWAPO youth organiser who received the backing of the Republican Party (mainly catering to the interests of white Namibians), and the Namibian Economic Freedom Fighters (similar to the Economic Freedom Fighters of South Africa, and as equally hard socialist) during that presidential election. Panduleni received 29.4% of the vote, sh...

Whilst the British general election campaign has been in full swing, four Dail by-elections were held in Ireland on 29 November, all four of them being caused by TDs (deputies) vacating their seats to take up seats in the European Parliament to which they had been elected in May. Most prominently, Joe O'Brien secured the first ever Green by-election win in Irish history, by being elected on the 8th count in Dublin Fingal's by-election, vacated by Clare Daly of the socialist group Independents for Change. The need to tackle man-made climate change has never been more pressing, as shown by rising Green support almost everywhere in Europe, and being an island Ireland, like Great Britain, is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. This was the primary contributor to Joe O'Brien's win, alongside the fact that Greens are transfer friendly in STV elections. By contrast, the incumbent Independent For Change party found out how flaky its support was when it fell to fifth...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 21 November 2019 were as follows: Aberdeen UA, Torry & Feryhill (1st preference votes): SNP 1618 (43.2%, +11.8%), Conservative 972 (26.0%, +2.1%), Labour 395 (10.6%, -12.8%), Liberal Democrats 315 (8.4%, -2.3%), Green 304 (8.1%, +3.3%), Independent (McLean) 86 (2.3%), UKIP 53 (1.4%, +0.5%). SNP elected at stage 6. Cardiff UA, Llanishen: Conservative 1566 (43.4%, +6.3%), Labour 1254 (34.7%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 387 (10.7%, +3.1%), Plaid Cymru 209 (5.8%, +3.1%), Green 138 (3.8%, -3.0%), Independent (Gwynn) 59 (1.6%). Conservative gain from Labour.   Chichester DC, Loxwood: Conservative 1005 (61.8%, +17.4%), Liberal Democrats 486 (29.9%, -25.7%), Green 126 (7.7%), Patria 9 (0.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. Moray UA, Keith & Cullen (1st preference votes): Conservative 1142 (41.5%, +7.1%), SNP 1047 (38.1%, -0.7%), Independent (Robson) 349 (12.7%, +3.3%), Liberal Democrats 212 (7.7%). Conservative ...

Last month, I made a list of revised predictions for the 2019 general election, the most difficult to predict in modern British political history (i.e. since 1950). However, even in the last seventeen days, the dynamics have changed significantly. The revised list of October 2019 was published before the "Unite to Remain" alliance was announced, and before Nigel Farage announced that the Brexit Party would withdraw from all 317 Conservative-held seats, which it did, prompting some Brexit Party candidates to stand as Independents. The Brexit Party is also not standing in the following 9 Labour-held seats in England (in addition to Chorley, contested by new Speaker of the House of Commons Sir Lindsay Hoyle, and furthermore the majority of seats in Scotland where the Remain vote is overall strongest of the four nations of the United Kingdom): Brent Central, Bristol North West, Canterbury, Dudley North, Ealing North, Ellesmere Port & Neston, Gateshead, Liverpool Walton, Ne...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of November 2019 were as follows: (07/11/19): Chelmsford BC, Marconi: Liberal Democrats 563 (48.1%, -0.1%), Conservative 311 (26.6%, +0.4%), Labour 156 (13.3%, -12.3%), Independent (Chambers) 72 (6.1%), Green 69 (5.9%). Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Independent (Moorcroft) 552 (38.5%), Conservative 494 (34.5%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 250 (17.5%, -31.6%), Robyn Harris 13 (0.9%). Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Labour 849 (40.8%, -10.2%), Conservative 536 (25.7%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 397 (19.1%, +10.0%), Green 237 (11.4%, +1.3%), WEP 40 (1.9%), Independent (Samuel) 23 (1.1%). Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Independent (Alderman) 220 (36.2%), Conservative 128 (21.1%, -4.5%), Daphne Bush 58 (9.6%), Liberal Democrats 57 (9.4%), Independent (Hancock) 46 (7.6%, -2.6%), Independent (Stenson) 37 (6.1%), Independent (Edwards) 35 (5.8%), Independent (Grange) 25 (4.1%, -11.2%), Independent (Nutting) 1 (0.2%). In...

The November 2019 Spanish general election, held after coalition talks led by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) failed to form a government, resulted in a sharper divide between left and right, similar to what is being seen in most other European countries. It was the centrist Citizens' Party (Ciudadanos) who lost out the most in this election, and they had enough seats to become junior partners in a Pedro Sanchez and PSOE-led government after initial talks between PSOE and the more socialist United Left-Podemos coalition of Pablo Iglesias failed. The C's lost nearly 3/5 of their April 2019 vote and were reduced to just 10 seats, which came from just four major Spanish cities. It found its Spanish nationalist mantra usurped by the extreme nationalist Vox, who won as many as 52 seats and third place in the Spanish polls with 15.1% of the vote nationally. Furthermore, the events in Catalonia are strengthening support for regionalist parties across Spain, both insi...

The 2017-19 Parliament dissolved on Wednesday in preparation for the general election on 12 December 2019, overshadowed by Brexit to such an extent that earlier today a "Unite to Remain" alliance between the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and (in some Welsh constituencies, including all but one currently represented by a Plaid Cymru MP) Plaid Cymru was announced. As many as 71 MPs (73 if the fact that Bassetlaw and Buckingham have been vacated early by John Mann and former Speaker John Bercow are counted) are retiring at this election, and some will be remembered more than others. More than a third of MPs retiring at this election have been in Parliament for less than a decade (25 to be exact), reflecting how stressful the Brexit chaos, and the increasing social media scrutiny of politics in general, has been on MPs. Out of the MPs retiring, here are the three I will miss most (and this has been a particularly difficult decision to make, even if it is my own pe...