A clover of Irish by-elections
Whilst the British general election campaign has been in full swing, four Dail by-elections were held in Ireland on 29 November, all four of them being caused by TDs (deputies) vacating their seats to take up seats in the European Parliament to which they had been elected in May.
Most prominently, Joe O'Brien secured the first ever Green by-election win in Irish history, by being elected on the 8th count in Dublin Fingal's by-election, vacated by Clare Daly of the socialist group Independents for Change. The need to tackle man-made climate change has never been more pressing, as shown by rising Green support almost everywhere in Europe, and being an island Ireland, like Great Britain, is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. This was the primary contributor to Joe O'Brien's win, alongside the fact that Greens are transfer friendly in STV elections. By contrast, the incumbent Independent For Change party found out how flaky its support was when it fell to fifth place in that by-election with only 10.16% of the first preference votes. Labour made a remarkable recovery from its drubbing of 2016, securing third place, as a result of the I4C group losing its footing; earlier opinion polls showed Labour was struggling to stay relevant as a political force in the Republic of Ireland, with its positions having been usurped by the Socialist-People Before Profit Alliance and Sinn Fein and its reputation still marred by its time in coalition with Fine Gael from 2011-16. The I4C group crashed and burned in the Dublin Mid-West by-election, finishing third last with 1.41% and losing their right to reclaim election expenses, and did not even field a candidate in Wexford despite Mick Wallace having been elected there for the same group in 2016, and it is likely that it will lose all representation in the Dail come the next Irish election, which current Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has hinted will take place in 2020, rather than 2021.
The Irish Green Party did well in the other three Dail by-elections, even in Wexford which is one of the weakest Irish counties for the Greens, although in Dublin Mid-West one of their former TDs, Paul Gogarty, ran as an Independent once again blunting the Green surge, although their candidate Peter Kavangh obtained more than half of the first preferences Paul did, and came close to beating Labour. Had Paul Gogarty rejoined the Green Party he would almost certainly have won that by-election on the back of the same Green surge that elected Joe O'Brien; instead, Mark Ward of Sinn Fein emerged as the surprise winner, at a time when Sinn Fein's popularity is stagnating and Aontu, formed by SF members opposed to abortion, is splitting SF's vote significantly. Aontu in fact did well enough to reclaim its election expenses in the Wexford by-election with 5.25% of the 1st preference votes, and its 3.97% was enough to cost Sinn Fein a good chance to win the Cork North-Central by-election, won by Fianna Fail's Padraig O'Sullivan.
The absence of Renua Ireland (a free market libertarian splinter group composed mainly of former Fine Gael members) was not enough for Fine Gael to win any of the four Dail by-elections, not even Dublin Mid-West where they were predicted to be neck and neck with Paul Gogarty, although governing parties rarely do well in by-elections. However, Fine Gael has actually become more popular since the last Irish general election, as has Fianna Fail (who won two of the four Dail by-elections), especially since Leo Varadkar succeeded Enda Kenny (the current Father of the House in the Oireachtas) as Taoiseach in 2017. Ireland has been returning to prosperity and this has led to a decline in support for Sinn Fein, Labour, the Socialist-People Before Profit Alliance and the Social Democrats. The PBP polled respectably in the by-elections of Cork North-Central and Dublin Mid-West, although these were also Dail constituencies which elected two of the six TDs from the S-PBP alliance, and in each case their support plummeted, from 15.7% to 4.4% in Cork North-Central despite their candidate there, Fiona Ryan, being one of their councillors, and from 10.7% to 5.1% in Dublin Mid-West, and despite I4C being absent from the Wexford by-election ballot they polled a mere 1.6%. The Social Democrats performed poorly across the by-elections they stood in, which is unsurprising given how reliant on personal votes they were in the 2016 Dail election.
Of the other candidates, Francis Timmons managed a respectable fifth in the Cork North-Central by-election, his recent re-election as a councillor having boosted his chances significantly. Freelance journalist Gemma O'Doherty, on the other hand, regarded as a conspiracy theorist by much of the Irish (and UK) media, only just managed to poll above the expenses-saving threshold in the Dublin Fingal by-election with 4.1%. Thomas Kiely, who only polled 473 1st preference votes in Cork North-Central in 2016, did not even achieve half that total in the subsequent by-election, and perennial candidate Charlie Keddy, who stood in all four by-elections due to Irish law still allowing candidates to stand in multiple constituencies simultaneously (most countries now prohibit this) came last or second last, with his highest total being 130 in Wexford where he lives (he polled 49, 95, and 112 votes respectively in the other three Dail by-elections). It was former Direct Democracy Ireland candidate Cormac McKay, however, who polled the fewest votes of all, with 46 in the Dublin Fingal by-election.
Wintertime by-elections bring low turnouts, and Dail by-elections in Ireland are no exception although the turnout in each election was uniformly dreadful. In fact, the 25.6% turnout in the Dublin Fingal by-election is the lowest of any Dail by-election ever, with the 26.6% in the by-election of Dublin Mid-West being the second-lowest turnout ever in a Dail by-election. (The previous low turnout record in Irish Dail by-elections was set by Dublin South Central's 1999 by-election, where only 28.8% of registered voters turned up to the polls)
Most prominently, Joe O'Brien secured the first ever Green by-election win in Irish history, by being elected on the 8th count in Dublin Fingal's by-election, vacated by Clare Daly of the socialist group Independents for Change. The need to tackle man-made climate change has never been more pressing, as shown by rising Green support almost everywhere in Europe, and being an island Ireland, like Great Britain, is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. This was the primary contributor to Joe O'Brien's win, alongside the fact that Greens are transfer friendly in STV elections. By contrast, the incumbent Independent For Change party found out how flaky its support was when it fell to fifth place in that by-election with only 10.16% of the first preference votes. Labour made a remarkable recovery from its drubbing of 2016, securing third place, as a result of the I4C group losing its footing; earlier opinion polls showed Labour was struggling to stay relevant as a political force in the Republic of Ireland, with its positions having been usurped by the Socialist-People Before Profit Alliance and Sinn Fein and its reputation still marred by its time in coalition with Fine Gael from 2011-16. The I4C group crashed and burned in the Dublin Mid-West by-election, finishing third last with 1.41% and losing their right to reclaim election expenses, and did not even field a candidate in Wexford despite Mick Wallace having been elected there for the same group in 2016, and it is likely that it will lose all representation in the Dail come the next Irish election, which current Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has hinted will take place in 2020, rather than 2021.
The Irish Green Party did well in the other three Dail by-elections, even in Wexford which is one of the weakest Irish counties for the Greens, although in Dublin Mid-West one of their former TDs, Paul Gogarty, ran as an Independent once again blunting the Green surge, although their candidate Peter Kavangh obtained more than half of the first preferences Paul did, and came close to beating Labour. Had Paul Gogarty rejoined the Green Party he would almost certainly have won that by-election on the back of the same Green surge that elected Joe O'Brien; instead, Mark Ward of Sinn Fein emerged as the surprise winner, at a time when Sinn Fein's popularity is stagnating and Aontu, formed by SF members opposed to abortion, is splitting SF's vote significantly. Aontu in fact did well enough to reclaim its election expenses in the Wexford by-election with 5.25% of the 1st preference votes, and its 3.97% was enough to cost Sinn Fein a good chance to win the Cork North-Central by-election, won by Fianna Fail's Padraig O'Sullivan.
The absence of Renua Ireland (a free market libertarian splinter group composed mainly of former Fine Gael members) was not enough for Fine Gael to win any of the four Dail by-elections, not even Dublin Mid-West where they were predicted to be neck and neck with Paul Gogarty, although governing parties rarely do well in by-elections. However, Fine Gael has actually become more popular since the last Irish general election, as has Fianna Fail (who won two of the four Dail by-elections), especially since Leo Varadkar succeeded Enda Kenny (the current Father of the House in the Oireachtas) as Taoiseach in 2017. Ireland has been returning to prosperity and this has led to a decline in support for Sinn Fein, Labour, the Socialist-People Before Profit Alliance and the Social Democrats. The PBP polled respectably in the by-elections of Cork North-Central and Dublin Mid-West, although these were also Dail constituencies which elected two of the six TDs from the S-PBP alliance, and in each case their support plummeted, from 15.7% to 4.4% in Cork North-Central despite their candidate there, Fiona Ryan, being one of their councillors, and from 10.7% to 5.1% in Dublin Mid-West, and despite I4C being absent from the Wexford by-election ballot they polled a mere 1.6%. The Social Democrats performed poorly across the by-elections they stood in, which is unsurprising given how reliant on personal votes they were in the 2016 Dail election.
Of the other candidates, Francis Timmons managed a respectable fifth in the Cork North-Central by-election, his recent re-election as a councillor having boosted his chances significantly. Freelance journalist Gemma O'Doherty, on the other hand, regarded as a conspiracy theorist by much of the Irish (and UK) media, only just managed to poll above the expenses-saving threshold in the Dublin Fingal by-election with 4.1%. Thomas Kiely, who only polled 473 1st preference votes in Cork North-Central in 2016, did not even achieve half that total in the subsequent by-election, and perennial candidate Charlie Keddy, who stood in all four by-elections due to Irish law still allowing candidates to stand in multiple constituencies simultaneously (most countries now prohibit this) came last or second last, with his highest total being 130 in Wexford where he lives (he polled 49, 95, and 112 votes respectively in the other three Dail by-elections). It was former Direct Democracy Ireland candidate Cormac McKay, however, who polled the fewest votes of all, with 46 in the Dublin Fingal by-election.
Wintertime by-elections bring low turnouts, and Dail by-elections in Ireland are no exception although the turnout in each election was uniformly dreadful. In fact, the 25.6% turnout in the Dublin Fingal by-election is the lowest of any Dail by-election ever, with the 26.6% in the by-election of Dublin Mid-West being the second-lowest turnout ever in a Dail by-election. (The previous low turnout record in Irish Dail by-elections was set by Dublin South Central's 1999 by-election, where only 28.8% of registered voters turned up to the polls)
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