My analysis of British local by-elections from 28/11/19 and 5/12/19
Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 28 November 2019 and 5 December 2019 were as follows:
(28/11/19):
North Norfolk DC, Sheringham North: Liberal Democrats (48.4%, -15.0%), Conservative (43.0%, +17.8%), Labour (8.6%, -2.8%).
Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford: Green 998 (40.9%, +30.0%), Conservative 755 (31.0%, +6.9%), Independent (Hornsby) 483 (19.8%), Labour 202 (8.3%, -4.2%). Green gain from Independent. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Lambrook: Liberal Democrats 622 (57.8%, +25.6%), Conservative 455 (42.2%, -3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour and Greens did not stand]
(05/12/19):
Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynyshir: Labour 407 (55.1%, +17.7%), Plaid Cymru 331 (44.9%, -17.7%). Labour gain from Plaid Cymru.
With only six days to go now before polling day, these four local by-elections from the last two weeks provide a useful insight into what is likely to happen in the general election, even if in only a few specific areas. North Norfolk's by-election is a case in point-although I stand by my prediction of a Liberal Democrat hold, there is a chance they could lose it to the Conservatives not only due to Jo Swinson's poor campaign but mainly due to the fact that its incumbent MP, Sir Norman Lamb, is retiring. This seat would likely have stayed Conservative had he never been a candidate (it took him three consecutive attempts to win North Norfolk). Furthermore, the recent departure of four Brexit Party MEPs from the Brexit Party (Annunziata Rees-Mogg, Lance Forman, Lucy Harris and John Longworth; the last of those lost the whip for criticisi) will mean that the Brexit Party will have little significant impact on the Conservative vote in North Norfolk. The "anyone but Conservative" vote factor proved decisive in Wiltshire, where the Liberal Democrats won the Trowbridge Lambrook by-election not only because the Conservatives are not performing as well as they were in May 2017 but also because they were the only opposition in said by-election.
In Wallingford, the Liberal Democrats' withdrawal from that by-election to support the Greens (as they did at local level in South Oxfordshire in some cases in May),and the Greens had topped the poll in Wallingford ward as a result. The Liberal Democrats' withdrawal from that by-election helped the Greens make a return to Oxfordshire County Council, with independent candidate Elaine Hornsby finishing third despite being a district councillor in South Oxfordshire, which normally boosts the credentials of county council election candidates. The withdrawal of Liberal Democrat candidates in favour of prominent Green candidates in some constituencies will lead to at least one Green win.
Yesterday's by-election in Ynyshir, a small inland island in the Welsh Valleys, does not bode well for a Plaid Cymru advance outside their stronghold of West Wales (this covers Ynys Mon, Caernarfon, Caerfyrddin, Ceredigion and Meirionydd) on 12 December, even though Plaid Cymru have shown themselves to be the only notable opposition to Labour in Mid-Glamorgan (where the Welsh Valleys are located) and at times Neath Port Talbot.
(28/11/19):
North Norfolk DC, Sheringham North: Liberal Democrats (48.4%, -15.0%), Conservative (43.0%, +17.8%), Labour (8.6%, -2.8%).
Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford: Green 998 (40.9%, +30.0%), Conservative 755 (31.0%, +6.9%), Independent (Hornsby) 483 (19.8%), Labour 202 (8.3%, -4.2%). Green gain from Independent. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Lambrook: Liberal Democrats 622 (57.8%, +25.6%), Conservative 455 (42.2%, -3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Labour and Greens did not stand]
(05/12/19):
Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynyshir: Labour 407 (55.1%, +17.7%), Plaid Cymru 331 (44.9%, -17.7%). Labour gain from Plaid Cymru.
With only six days to go now before polling day, these four local by-elections from the last two weeks provide a useful insight into what is likely to happen in the general election, even if in only a few specific areas. North Norfolk's by-election is a case in point-although I stand by my prediction of a Liberal Democrat hold, there is a chance they could lose it to the Conservatives not only due to Jo Swinson's poor campaign but mainly due to the fact that its incumbent MP, Sir Norman Lamb, is retiring. This seat would likely have stayed Conservative had he never been a candidate (it took him three consecutive attempts to win North Norfolk). Furthermore, the recent departure of four Brexit Party MEPs from the Brexit Party (Annunziata Rees-Mogg, Lance Forman, Lucy Harris and John Longworth; the last of those lost the whip for criticisi) will mean that the Brexit Party will have little significant impact on the Conservative vote in North Norfolk. The "anyone but Conservative" vote factor proved decisive in Wiltshire, where the Liberal Democrats won the Trowbridge Lambrook by-election not only because the Conservatives are not performing as well as they were in May 2017 but also because they were the only opposition in said by-election.
In Wallingford, the Liberal Democrats' withdrawal from that by-election to support the Greens (as they did at local level in South Oxfordshire in some cases in May),and the Greens had topped the poll in Wallingford ward as a result. The Liberal Democrats' withdrawal from that by-election helped the Greens make a return to Oxfordshire County Council, with independent candidate Elaine Hornsby finishing third despite being a district councillor in South Oxfordshire, which normally boosts the credentials of county council election candidates. The withdrawal of Liberal Democrat candidates in favour of prominent Green candidates in some constituencies will lead to at least one Green win.
Yesterday's by-election in Ynyshir, a small inland island in the Welsh Valleys, does not bode well for a Plaid Cymru advance outside their stronghold of West Wales (this covers Ynys Mon, Caernarfon, Caerfyrddin, Ceredigion and Meirionydd) on 12 December, even though Plaid Cymru have shown themselves to be the only notable opposition to Labour in Mid-Glamorgan (where the Welsh Valleys are located) and at times Neath Port Talbot.
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