The 2019 British general election, part 4-Northern Ireland
The developments of Northern Ireland are of special importance to the 2019 British general election, as Brexit could trigger the reunification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who gave confidence and supply to the Conservatives when Theresa May was Prime Minister, found themselves on the wrong end of the Remain/Leave divide outside County Antrim. The DUP's leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, lost his seat of Belfast North to Sinn Fein's John Finucane after 18 years in Parliament. Mr Finucane, the son of human rights lawyer Patrick Finucane who was murdered by loyalist paramilitaries in 1989, was backed by the Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) in an unprecedented nationalist alliance. This means that Belfast North, whose nationalist population is growing, has a nationalist MP for the first time in its history. Furthermore moderates in Northern Ireland are increasingly turning to the non-sectarian Alliance Party, who returned to Parliament after a 4 1/2 year absence by winning North Down, the most unionist seat in all of Northern Ireland, on the backing of independent unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon's former voters (Lady Sylvia stood down this year), although some voted for former prominent local independent unionist Alan Chambers, who was the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) candidate this year. The Alliance Party saved their deposit in 15 out of 18 Northern Irish constituencies, but their former leader Naomi Long failed to win back Belfast East even though neither Sinn Fein nor the SDLP stood there (they did not stand in North Down either); nevertheless she achieved a 7.8% swing against Gavin Robinson.
The SDLP returned to Parliament in spectacular fashion. In Belfast South, where Claire Hanna was backed by Sinn Fein, the SDLP defeated Emma Little Pengelly of the DUP on a tremendous swing of 18.5%, which also squeezed the Alliance Party (this was the only seat where the Alliance Party vote fell) even though Belfast South, the most prosperous seat of Northern Ireland and home to Queen's University Belfast, is one of their better prospects in the long term at a local and Stormont level. The DUP vote fell sharply in Belfast (except in Belfast West which is the most nationalist constituency in Northern Ireland anyway), a clear sign of a pro-Remain backlash in Northern Ireland overcoming the sectarian divide to some extent. The SDLP also captured Foyle from Sinn Fein on an even greater 18.4% swing, having only lost it by 169 votes in 2017. Tactical voting by unionist and Alliance voters in Foyle played a decisive role, as did the fact that this is the SDLP's strongest area in Northern Ireland, the fact that its forme MP Mark Durkan was not standing again (he stood for Fine Gael in the Republic of Ireland's European elections of 2019) proved to be a nonissue, and nor was Elisha McCallion's support for remaining in the EU, especially since Sinn Fein MPs in Northern Ireland never take their seats in Westminster. The only downside of the SDLP's campaign was narrowly failing to recapture South Down from Sinn Fein; the Alliance won over many soft SDLP voters there.
Even in solidly unionist constituencies the Alliance made strong advances, achieving swings of over 10% against four of the DUP's MPs and finishing a strong second in East Antrim, Lagan Valley, and Strangford. Despite the fact that the Northern Irish electorate turned against more hardline parties on both sides of the sectarian divide, with the DUP and Sinn Fein losing considerable support, the Ulster Unionists failed to win any seats, with former UUP MP Tom Elliott failing to recapture the perennially marginal seat of Fermanagh & South Tyrone from Sinn Fein by just 57 votes, making it once again the most marginal constituency in the whole of the United Kingdom. Danny Kinahan also failed to recapture South Antrim from the DUP, which he represented from 2015 to 2017, due to an Alliance surge there; even though John Blair finished third he managed a respectable 19.1% in South Antrim. The UUP are becoming increasingly irrelevant in Northern Ireland and the Alliance is proving adept at capturing their old voter base, especially in the more affluent areas. As for other parties, the Green Party of Northern Ireland's only highlight was finishing ahead of Sinn Fein in Strangford (Sinn Fein have never saved their deposit there however), having decided not to stand in North Down or Belfast South as a tactical measure to defeat the DUP; the Northern Irish Conservatives all lost their deposits even in North Down, and so did Aontu with its best result being in Foyle, coming 4th. People Before Profit's Gerry Carroll finished second in Belfast West just as he did in 2015 but Shaun Harkin lost votes to Aontu and the SDLP. UKIP proved to be just as irrelevant in Northern Ireland as in Britain, and of the independent candidates only Caroline Farry, an "Independent Labour" candidate in Fermanagh & South Tyrone (Labour does not stand candidates in Northern Ireland) who polled 751 votes which would have mainly come from Sinn Fein and the SDLP, made any real impact.
For the first time ever, nationalist MPs outnumber unionist MPs in Northern Ireland; the nationalists have 9 (7 Sinn Fein, 2 SDLP), the unionists have 8, all from the DUP, and the Alliance have 1, Stephen Farry in North Down. The unionists came close this year to having no parliamentary representation at all in Belfast's constituencies; Belfast now has three nationalist MPs and its unionist population is in terminal decline. Not only is the nationalist population increasing but also many people working in Belfast have been moving out to towns in County Antrim close to Belfast such as Newtonabbey and the city of Lisburn, and also de facto Belfast suburbs in County Down such as Castlereagh, now administratively in Belfast.
Coming up in part 5-overall conclusions and what could happen next.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who gave confidence and supply to the Conservatives when Theresa May was Prime Minister, found themselves on the wrong end of the Remain/Leave divide outside County Antrim. The DUP's leader in Westminster, Nigel Dodds, lost his seat of Belfast North to Sinn Fein's John Finucane after 18 years in Parliament. Mr Finucane, the son of human rights lawyer Patrick Finucane who was murdered by loyalist paramilitaries in 1989, was backed by the Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) in an unprecedented nationalist alliance. This means that Belfast North, whose nationalist population is growing, has a nationalist MP for the first time in its history. Furthermore moderates in Northern Ireland are increasingly turning to the non-sectarian Alliance Party, who returned to Parliament after a 4 1/2 year absence by winning North Down, the most unionist seat in all of Northern Ireland, on the backing of independent unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon's former voters (Lady Sylvia stood down this year), although some voted for former prominent local independent unionist Alan Chambers, who was the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) candidate this year. The Alliance Party saved their deposit in 15 out of 18 Northern Irish constituencies, but their former leader Naomi Long failed to win back Belfast East even though neither Sinn Fein nor the SDLP stood there (they did not stand in North Down either); nevertheless she achieved a 7.8% swing against Gavin Robinson.
The SDLP returned to Parliament in spectacular fashion. In Belfast South, where Claire Hanna was backed by Sinn Fein, the SDLP defeated Emma Little Pengelly of the DUP on a tremendous swing of 18.5%, which also squeezed the Alliance Party (this was the only seat where the Alliance Party vote fell) even though Belfast South, the most prosperous seat of Northern Ireland and home to Queen's University Belfast, is one of their better prospects in the long term at a local and Stormont level. The DUP vote fell sharply in Belfast (except in Belfast West which is the most nationalist constituency in Northern Ireland anyway), a clear sign of a pro-Remain backlash in Northern Ireland overcoming the sectarian divide to some extent. The SDLP also captured Foyle from Sinn Fein on an even greater 18.4% swing, having only lost it by 169 votes in 2017. Tactical voting by unionist and Alliance voters in Foyle played a decisive role, as did the fact that this is the SDLP's strongest area in Northern Ireland, the fact that its forme MP Mark Durkan was not standing again (he stood for Fine Gael in the Republic of Ireland's European elections of 2019) proved to be a nonissue, and nor was Elisha McCallion's support for remaining in the EU, especially since Sinn Fein MPs in Northern Ireland never take their seats in Westminster. The only downside of the SDLP's campaign was narrowly failing to recapture South Down from Sinn Fein; the Alliance won over many soft SDLP voters there.
Even in solidly unionist constituencies the Alliance made strong advances, achieving swings of over 10% against four of the DUP's MPs and finishing a strong second in East Antrim, Lagan Valley, and Strangford. Despite the fact that the Northern Irish electorate turned against more hardline parties on both sides of the sectarian divide, with the DUP and Sinn Fein losing considerable support, the Ulster Unionists failed to win any seats, with former UUP MP Tom Elliott failing to recapture the perennially marginal seat of Fermanagh & South Tyrone from Sinn Fein by just 57 votes, making it once again the most marginal constituency in the whole of the United Kingdom. Danny Kinahan also failed to recapture South Antrim from the DUP, which he represented from 2015 to 2017, due to an Alliance surge there; even though John Blair finished third he managed a respectable 19.1% in South Antrim. The UUP are becoming increasingly irrelevant in Northern Ireland and the Alliance is proving adept at capturing their old voter base, especially in the more affluent areas. As for other parties, the Green Party of Northern Ireland's only highlight was finishing ahead of Sinn Fein in Strangford (Sinn Fein have never saved their deposit there however), having decided not to stand in North Down or Belfast South as a tactical measure to defeat the DUP; the Northern Irish Conservatives all lost their deposits even in North Down, and so did Aontu with its best result being in Foyle, coming 4th. People Before Profit's Gerry Carroll finished second in Belfast West just as he did in 2015 but Shaun Harkin lost votes to Aontu and the SDLP. UKIP proved to be just as irrelevant in Northern Ireland as in Britain, and of the independent candidates only Caroline Farry, an "Independent Labour" candidate in Fermanagh & South Tyrone (Labour does not stand candidates in Northern Ireland) who polled 751 votes which would have mainly come from Sinn Fein and the SDLP, made any real impact.
For the first time ever, nationalist MPs outnumber unionist MPs in Northern Ireland; the nationalists have 9 (7 Sinn Fein, 2 SDLP), the unionists have 8, all from the DUP, and the Alliance have 1, Stephen Farry in North Down. The unionists came close this year to having no parliamentary representation at all in Belfast's constituencies; Belfast now has three nationalist MPs and its unionist population is in terminal decline. Not only is the nationalist population increasing but also many people working in Belfast have been moving out to towns in County Antrim close to Belfast such as Newtonabbey and the city of Lisburn, and also de facto Belfast suburbs in County Down such as Castlereagh, now administratively in Belfast.
Coming up in part 5-overall conclusions and what could happen next.
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