My analysis of by-elections from 19/7/18, 26/7/18, and 3/8/18
Readers, the results from British local by-elections of the last three weeks were as follows:
(19/7/18):
Bury MBC, Besses: Labour 999 (51.1%, -7.6%), Conservative 708 (36.2%, +16.2%), English Democrats 72 (3.7%, -7.8%), Liberal Democrats 71 (3.6%, -0.7%), Green 55 (2.8%, -2.6%), UKIP 49 (2.5%). All changes are since this 2016.
Carmarthenshire UA, Saron: Plaid Cymru 747 (65.2%, +15.7%), Labour 239 (20.9%, -15.0%), Conservative 146 (12.7%, -1.9%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.2%).
Milton Keynes UA, Bletchley East: Labour 1355 (50.9%, +3.1%), Conservative 1026 (38.5%, -0.7%), Green 131 (4.9%, -3.1%), UKIP 101 (3.8%), Liberal Democrats 50 (1.9%, -3.1%).
Northamptonshire CC, St George's: Labour 839 (44.6%, +4.3%), Liberal Democrats 564 (30.0%, +0.1%), Conservative 285 (15.1%, -7.2%), UKIP 111 (5.9%, -1.6%), Green 83 (4.4%).
Oxford BC, Headington: Liberal Democrats 949 (60.9%, +1.2%), Labour 419 (26.9%, +3.2%), Conservative 124 (8.0%, -1.4%), Green 67 (4.3%, -3.0%). All changes are since this May.
West Lancashire BC, Hesketh with Becconsall: Conservative (41.2%, -18.5%), Labour (34.9%, +4.0%), Independent (Kirby) (23.8%). All changes are since this May. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
(26/7/18):
Merthyr Tydfil UA, Gurnos: Independent (Davies) 375 (40.8%), Labour 368 (40.0%,+18.0%), Independent (Singh) 144 (15.7%),Conservative 32 (3.5%). Independent gain from Labour.
New Forest DC, Fawley, Blackfield & Langley: Conservative 736 (58.4%, +15.8%), Liberal Democrats 525 (41.6%, +27.4%). [UKIP and Labour did not stand]
North East Lincolnshire UA, Freshney: Labour 692 (41.3%, -0.5%), Conservative 650 (38.8%, +12.3%), Independent (Kiff) 231 (13.8%), UKIP 78 (4.7%, -23.0%), Green 24 (1.4%, -1.7%). All changes are since 2016.
Plymouth UA, Stoke: Labour 1427 (52.8%,+16.7%), Conservative 981 (36.3%, +2.6%), Liberal Democrats 174 (6.4%), Active For Plymouth 123 (4.5%). [UKIP, Greens and TUSC did not stand]. All changes are since 2015.
Thanet DC, Birchington South: Conservative 651 (63.0%, +40.4%), Labour 265 (25.7%, +14.9%), Liberal Democrats 117 (11.3%, +6.8%). Conservative gain from UKIP, who did not stand. [No independent candidates stood this time]
Torridge DC, Hartland & Bradworthy: Conservative 408 (58.5%), Liberal Democrats 204 (29.3%), Green 85 (12.1%, -12.8%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat victor of 2017 by-election; Conservative gain from Independent on basis of 2015 resut. [UKIP did not stand in 2015 nor in the 2017 by-election]*
West Lancashire DC, Knowsley: Labour 641 (41.3%, -9.6%), Our West Lancashire 547 (35.2%, +19.9%), Conservative 364 (23.5%, -10.3%). All changes are since this May.
(3/8/18):
Fylde DC, Ansell: Conservative 715 (72.4%, +22.6%), Labour 272 (27.6%, +4.6%). [No Independent candidates this time]
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Snettisham: Conservative 613 (77.4%, +5.1%), Liberal Democrats 66 (8.3%), Green 65 (8.2%), UKIP 48 (6.1%). [Labour did not stand]
Peterborough UA, Orton Longueville: Conservative 713 (36.5%, -1.3%), Labour 657 (33.7%, +1.1%), Liberal Democrats 237 (12.1%, +4.5%), Green 201 (10.3%, +2.7%), UKIP 143 (7.3%, -7.0%). All changes are since this May.
*The vote share changes are calculated since the last council elections of 2015, not the 2017 by-election. If calculated since the 2017 by-election the Liberal Democrat vote share change is -28.3% and the Green vote share change is -30.3%.
I was busy seeing a friend on the weekend of 20th-22nd July, and was away in France the following week, hence why there are three weeks' worth of British local by-election results listed in this post.
Within the week of 19th July, the particularly impressive Plaid Cymru result-even given the high proportion of Welsh speakers in Carmarthenshire (Sir Caerfyrddin)-is down to localism and in part an anti-Brexit backlash against Labour. In 2016, areas with high proportions of Welsh speakers in Wales also had higher Remain votes than areas with low proportions of Welsh speakers, prosperous areas like Monmouth, Cardiff, and the Vale of Glamorgan notwithstanding. Personal votes matter very strongly in Torridge as well-the resignation of the Liberal Democrat who had only won the seat a year ago in a by-election would have also given a well-known Independent an easy win in this by-election just as it did the Conservative chairman of Broadworthy parish council, with the Greens being squeezed by the Liberal Democrats as often happens in South West England where the Greens did well enough to be in contention for the ward but still behind the Liberal Democrats.
The result in Bury is complicated by the dramatic changes that have happened since 2016, especially a pro-Conservative swing in working-class areas which is attributable to Brexit. A similar trend happened in Freshney, which was in fact gained by the Conservatives in May by 85 votes, and indeed Labour held on in the by-election by just 42 votes when UKIP voters overwhelmingly lent their votes to the Conservatives, just like in most of NE Lincolnshire, which can be considered the socially conservative and pro-Brexit answer to Brighton & Hove. This narrow hold proved critical for Labour because a Conservative gain would have made the Conservatives the largest party on North East Lincolnshire council by two seats, and they would have at the first moment seized the opportunity to oust the minority Labour administration (the Liberal Democrats and independents hold the balance of power in that council). Although UKIP had few votes left to lose in Peterborough, there was enough of a swing from UKIP to the Conservatives to ensure a Conservative hold of marginal Orton Longuevile over Labour, who only managed a 1.2% swing. The Conservative councillor elected in that by-election was incidentally unseated in nearby Orton Waterville just 3 months ago by the first ever Green councillor in Peterborough, Julie Howell.
Meanwhile in West Lancashire, the otherwise safely Conservative rural ward of Hesketh with Becconsall, which since its creation has never recorded a Conservative vote share below 50% until now, was nearly lost to Labour because of the independent candidature of Stephen Kirby; Labour only absorbed a small proportion of the Liberal Democrat vote of May 2018.
Even though many opinion polls showed a return of some Conservative voters to UKIP over dissatisfaction with the way Brexit is being handled by the Conservative government, the results of local by-elections from the last 3 weeks showed that no such thing was occurring in real life, especially since UKIP is not actually in a position to win back those Conservative voters, and indeed due to unrelated circumstances (as described above) the Conservatives made two gains and no losses over the last 3 weeks in British local by-elections.
(19/7/18):
Bury MBC, Besses: Labour 999 (51.1%, -7.6%), Conservative 708 (36.2%, +16.2%), English Democrats 72 (3.7%, -7.8%), Liberal Democrats 71 (3.6%, -0.7%), Green 55 (2.8%, -2.6%), UKIP 49 (2.5%). All changes are since this 2016.
Carmarthenshire UA, Saron: Plaid Cymru 747 (65.2%, +15.7%), Labour 239 (20.9%, -15.0%), Conservative 146 (12.7%, -1.9%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.2%).
Milton Keynes UA, Bletchley East: Labour 1355 (50.9%, +3.1%), Conservative 1026 (38.5%, -0.7%), Green 131 (4.9%, -3.1%), UKIP 101 (3.8%), Liberal Democrats 50 (1.9%, -3.1%).
Northamptonshire CC, St George's: Labour 839 (44.6%, +4.3%), Liberal Democrats 564 (30.0%, +0.1%), Conservative 285 (15.1%, -7.2%), UKIP 111 (5.9%, -1.6%), Green 83 (4.4%).
Oxford BC, Headington: Liberal Democrats 949 (60.9%, +1.2%), Labour 419 (26.9%, +3.2%), Conservative 124 (8.0%, -1.4%), Green 67 (4.3%, -3.0%). All changes are since this May.
West Lancashire BC, Hesketh with Becconsall: Conservative (41.2%, -18.5%), Labour (34.9%, +4.0%), Independent (Kirby) (23.8%). All changes are since this May. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
(26/7/18):
Merthyr Tydfil UA, Gurnos: Independent (Davies) 375 (40.8%), Labour 368 (40.0%,+18.0%), Independent (Singh) 144 (15.7%),Conservative 32 (3.5%). Independent gain from Labour.
New Forest DC, Fawley, Blackfield & Langley: Conservative 736 (58.4%, +15.8%), Liberal Democrats 525 (41.6%, +27.4%). [UKIP and Labour did not stand]
North East Lincolnshire UA, Freshney: Labour 692 (41.3%, -0.5%), Conservative 650 (38.8%, +12.3%), Independent (Kiff) 231 (13.8%), UKIP 78 (4.7%, -23.0%), Green 24 (1.4%, -1.7%). All changes are since 2016.
Plymouth UA, Stoke: Labour 1427 (52.8%,+16.7%), Conservative 981 (36.3%, +2.6%), Liberal Democrats 174 (6.4%), Active For Plymouth 123 (4.5%). [UKIP, Greens and TUSC did not stand]. All changes are since 2015.
Thanet DC, Birchington South: Conservative 651 (63.0%, +40.4%), Labour 265 (25.7%, +14.9%), Liberal Democrats 117 (11.3%, +6.8%). Conservative gain from UKIP, who did not stand. [No independent candidates stood this time]
Torridge DC, Hartland & Bradworthy: Conservative 408 (58.5%), Liberal Democrats 204 (29.3%), Green 85 (12.1%, -12.8%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat victor of 2017 by-election; Conservative gain from Independent on basis of 2015 resut. [UKIP did not stand in 2015 nor in the 2017 by-election]*
West Lancashire DC, Knowsley: Labour 641 (41.3%, -9.6%), Our West Lancashire 547 (35.2%, +19.9%), Conservative 364 (23.5%, -10.3%). All changes are since this May.
(3/8/18):
Fylde DC, Ansell: Conservative 715 (72.4%, +22.6%), Labour 272 (27.6%, +4.6%). [No Independent candidates this time]
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Snettisham: Conservative 613 (77.4%, +5.1%), Liberal Democrats 66 (8.3%), Green 65 (8.2%), UKIP 48 (6.1%). [Labour did not stand]
Peterborough UA, Orton Longueville: Conservative 713 (36.5%, -1.3%), Labour 657 (33.7%, +1.1%), Liberal Democrats 237 (12.1%, +4.5%), Green 201 (10.3%, +2.7%), UKIP 143 (7.3%, -7.0%). All changes are since this May.
*The vote share changes are calculated since the last council elections of 2015, not the 2017 by-election. If calculated since the 2017 by-election the Liberal Democrat vote share change is -28.3% and the Green vote share change is -30.3%.
I was busy seeing a friend on the weekend of 20th-22nd July, and was away in France the following week, hence why there are three weeks' worth of British local by-election results listed in this post.
Within the week of 19th July, the particularly impressive Plaid Cymru result-even given the high proportion of Welsh speakers in Carmarthenshire (Sir Caerfyrddin)-is down to localism and in part an anti-Brexit backlash against Labour. In 2016, areas with high proportions of Welsh speakers in Wales also had higher Remain votes than areas with low proportions of Welsh speakers, prosperous areas like Monmouth, Cardiff, and the Vale of Glamorgan notwithstanding. Personal votes matter very strongly in Torridge as well-the resignation of the Liberal Democrat who had only won the seat a year ago in a by-election would have also given a well-known Independent an easy win in this by-election just as it did the Conservative chairman of Broadworthy parish council, with the Greens being squeezed by the Liberal Democrats as often happens in South West England where the Greens did well enough to be in contention for the ward but still behind the Liberal Democrats.
The result in Bury is complicated by the dramatic changes that have happened since 2016, especially a pro-Conservative swing in working-class areas which is attributable to Brexit. A similar trend happened in Freshney, which was in fact gained by the Conservatives in May by 85 votes, and indeed Labour held on in the by-election by just 42 votes when UKIP voters overwhelmingly lent their votes to the Conservatives, just like in most of NE Lincolnshire, which can be considered the socially conservative and pro-Brexit answer to Brighton & Hove. This narrow hold proved critical for Labour because a Conservative gain would have made the Conservatives the largest party on North East Lincolnshire council by two seats, and they would have at the first moment seized the opportunity to oust the minority Labour administration (the Liberal Democrats and independents hold the balance of power in that council). Although UKIP had few votes left to lose in Peterborough, there was enough of a swing from UKIP to the Conservatives to ensure a Conservative hold of marginal Orton Longuevile over Labour, who only managed a 1.2% swing. The Conservative councillor elected in that by-election was incidentally unseated in nearby Orton Waterville just 3 months ago by the first ever Green councillor in Peterborough, Julie Howell.
Meanwhile in West Lancashire, the otherwise safely Conservative rural ward of Hesketh with Becconsall, which since its creation has never recorded a Conservative vote share below 50% until now, was nearly lost to Labour because of the independent candidature of Stephen Kirby; Labour only absorbed a small proportion of the Liberal Democrat vote of May 2018.
Even though many opinion polls showed a return of some Conservative voters to UKIP over dissatisfaction with the way Brexit is being handled by the Conservative government, the results of local by-elections from the last 3 weeks showed that no such thing was occurring in real life, especially since UKIP is not actually in a position to win back those Conservative voters, and indeed due to unrelated circumstances (as described above) the Conservatives made two gains and no losses over the last 3 weeks in British local by-elections.
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