Demographic change's effects on British politics: what I mean
In my recent political analyses, I have frequently spoken of the effects of demographic change on political results. What is meant by that?
Demographic change is when the composition of the population of a particular place, or in political terms a constituency, changes significantly and has a significant long-term impact on the socio-economic factors of the area in question. In politics, demographic change refers to changes in the type of voters within an area, which subsequently changes how the area votes in terms of political parties; this often happens within villages or towns absorbed into nearby cities and becoming suburbs of these cities, although many retain alternative traditions (e.g. Otley's Liberal/Liberal Democrat leanings after absorption into Leeds in 1974). The changes in religious beliefs of voters have also had a profound impact, especially where there was a substantial nonconformist (i.e. neither Anglican nor Catholic) vote within an area. The collapse of the Liberal/Liberal Democrat vote in the Pennines, combined with a failure for any above-average Green vote to replace it except in Huddersfield, is in line with the sharp decline in those saying they are followers of Methodism, Quakerism, or other nonconformist Protestant denomination.
Case studies: Canterbury and Mansfield
Canterbury was only won by the Labour Party last year having been up to that point a safe Conservative seat since 1874 (apart from an Independent Unionist gain in December 1910). The cathedral city of Canterbury, which like York has an Archbishop, has like the majority of single constituency British cathedral cities a core genteel Conservative vote and a stronger "liberal" (Liberal Democrat and to a lesser extent Green) than the rest of the surrounding area, even taking any student population or lack thereof into account. This happens because housing has tended to be more expensive in cathedral cities most of which also have a good tourist industry of some sort. Salisbury, for example, is close to Stonehenge, a UNESCO World Heritage Site with an unknown and mysterious past. Bath, meanwhile, has the famous and ancient Roman baths and is the only "spa city" in the UK. Canterbury is one of the most visited cities in the UK primarily because of its world famous cathedral, also a UNESCO World Heritage site,and rich history, as first depicted in Geoffrey Chaucer's "The Canterbury Tales" in 1412.
Canterbury has seen a large growth in student population terms, and the city itself has the highest proportion of students to permanent residents, overtaking Durham in 2001. In 2001 students comprised 22% of the city population, but the 2011 census showed that figure had risen to approximately 32% with half the wards in the city featuring in the top 100 for student population. This has diluted the genteel Conservative vote and enhanced the liberal-minded vote in Canterbury at local level, allowing the Liberal Democrats to maintain support even in their worst years. Canterbury has also not been able to develop a substantial affluent Conservative-leaning commuter vote even though it is possible to reach London by train in less than an hour at peak times, due to housing in Kent close to London (especially the Medway towns) not being nearly as expensive as that in the Home Counties. Even the most reliable Conservative ward in Canterbury City, St Stephens, is now marginal and in 2015 they only gained seats due to a simultaneous general election and a split vote, with the Conservatives winning all 3 seats in Barton ward with a vote share as low as 24.7%, a good example of the need for electoral reform if ever there was one; Barton falls into the very rare category of "four way marginal" in terms of vote shares for political parties.
With these factors in play, Canterbury became a semi-marginal seat from 1997 onwards, even with nearby Whitstable still being safely Conservative due to its large proportion of retired people. In 2001, Canterbury was one of a minority of Conservative seats with a swing to Labour, who reduced the Conservative majority to its then lowest ever at 2,069 votes (4.6%). In 2010, the Liberal Democrats overtook Labour and actually reduced the majority of (now Sir) Julian Brazier, who could only increase the Conservative vote share in Canterbury by 0.3% that year, due to the high student population. That same student population caused a steep drop in the Liberal Democrat vote there in 2015, but the Conservative vote share also dropped by 1.9%, and Labour kept the seat semi-marginal by achieving a 5.2% swing, in contrast to being pushed back in surrounding Kentish seats by UKIP's rise. The same student population, coming out in droves for Jeremy Corbyn, finally enabled long-term Canterbury resident Rosie Duffield, whose background as a single mother and teaching assistant stood out in her favour, to finally bring an end to 143 years of Conservative representation in Canterbury. It is also worth noting Sir Julian was also one of the most socially conservative of Conservative MPs and his support for Leaving the EU proved decisive to his 187-vote loss, even when UKIP did not stand in 2017.
Mansfield swung in the opposite direction in 2017. Having been a Labour seat continuously since 1923, it was one of only six Conservative gains from Labour in 2017 and with 94 years of previous Labour representation was the longest held Labour seat to be won by the Conservatives that year; four of the other five previously safe Labour seats won by the Conservatives in 2017 had been represented by Labour since 1935 nevertheless, accounting for name and boundary changes. Labour representation in Mansfield had been threatened before, most notably in 1987 when a Moderate Labour candidate polled 1,580 votes amongst the dispute between the moderate and Nottinghamshire-based Democratic Mineworkers' Union and the pro-strike National Union of Mineworkers, reducing the Labour majority to just 56. (Now Sir) Alan Meale upon narrowly holding the seat then managed in 1992 to secure the largest pro-Labour swing that year outside Plymouth, 10.6%. But in 2001, the loss of the mines, textile mills, and breweries, whose workers were mainly loyal Labour voters through and through, were beginning to make their mark, especially with the then relatively new railway station and excellent bus and road links making the town more attractive to Midlands commuters who could also buy houses at very low prices (less than £100,000 at a time house prices in London were rocketing past the £250,000 mark on average), and Labour endured one of the heaviest pro-Conservative swings against them that year-6.7%. Mansfield's wards have a high proportion of people in routine or semi-routine occupations, with seven wards being in the top 100 for people in routine occupations, and in half the wards of Mansfield, the proportion of owner-occupiers exceeds 80%, with three of them being in the top 100 for owner-occupiers. Conversely, large proportions of Mansfield are in the bottom 10% for people in management or professional occupations. Voters of this type turned out heavily for Leave in the EU referendum and swung heavily to the Conservatives in 2017. In 2010, one of Labour's worst years, Sir Alan endured a further 9.5% swing against him compared to an average 5% swing from Labour to Conservative. Mansfield, being a self contained town, then started developing a strong Independent vote locally on the back of Stuart Rickersley, who with a 17% vote share achieved in 2005 the best result for an Independent candidate not also endorsed by a significant political party. In 2015, UKIP capitalised particularly well on the "old Labour vote" in addition to the "racist right" vote, polling as high as 25.1%. Mansfield then voted 71% to Leave in the EU referendum with Sir Alan calling for a Remain vote. The very next year, his pro-EU stance proved fatal to his parliamentary career-after 30 years, he was unseated by the rather controversial and youthful Ben Bradley, who benefitted from the collapsing UKIP vote. Like Sir Julian Brazier, who was not only first elected in the same year as him but also defeated in the same year as him, he had been left behind by the extensive demographic transition his constituency had undergone in the 30 years he had served as MP there.
Demographic changes are long term, meaning that even in bad years for a particular political party, that seat will likely remain in that party's hands if its demographics so naturally favour it, and also have a lower than average swing to an opposition party. The contrasting tales of the constituencies of Canterbury and Mansfield, because of the remarkable way they have changed over the decades, together illustrate the political effects of demographic change more aptly than other current parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom.
Demographic change is when the composition of the population of a particular place, or in political terms a constituency, changes significantly and has a significant long-term impact on the socio-economic factors of the area in question. In politics, demographic change refers to changes in the type of voters within an area, which subsequently changes how the area votes in terms of political parties; this often happens within villages or towns absorbed into nearby cities and becoming suburbs of these cities, although many retain alternative traditions (e.g. Otley's Liberal/Liberal Democrat leanings after absorption into Leeds in 1974). The changes in religious beliefs of voters have also had a profound impact, especially where there was a substantial nonconformist (i.e. neither Anglican nor Catholic) vote within an area. The collapse of the Liberal/Liberal Democrat vote in the Pennines, combined with a failure for any above-average Green vote to replace it except in Huddersfield, is in line with the sharp decline in those saying they are followers of Methodism, Quakerism, or other nonconformist Protestant denomination.
Case studies: Canterbury and Mansfield
Canterbury was only won by the Labour Party last year having been up to that point a safe Conservative seat since 1874 (apart from an Independent Unionist gain in December 1910). The cathedral city of Canterbury, which like York has an Archbishop, has like the majority of single constituency British cathedral cities a core genteel Conservative vote and a stronger "liberal" (Liberal Democrat and to a lesser extent Green) than the rest of the surrounding area, even taking any student population or lack thereof into account. This happens because housing has tended to be more expensive in cathedral cities most of which also have a good tourist industry of some sort. Salisbury, for example, is close to Stonehenge, a UNESCO World Heritage Site with an unknown and mysterious past. Bath, meanwhile, has the famous and ancient Roman baths and is the only "spa city" in the UK. Canterbury is one of the most visited cities in the UK primarily because of its world famous cathedral, also a UNESCO World Heritage site,and rich history, as first depicted in Geoffrey Chaucer's "The Canterbury Tales" in 1412.
Canterbury has seen a large growth in student population terms, and the city itself has the highest proportion of students to permanent residents, overtaking Durham in 2001. In 2001 students comprised 22% of the city population, but the 2011 census showed that figure had risen to approximately 32% with half the wards in the city featuring in the top 100 for student population. This has diluted the genteel Conservative vote and enhanced the liberal-minded vote in Canterbury at local level, allowing the Liberal Democrats to maintain support even in their worst years. Canterbury has also not been able to develop a substantial affluent Conservative-leaning commuter vote even though it is possible to reach London by train in less than an hour at peak times, due to housing in Kent close to London (especially the Medway towns) not being nearly as expensive as that in the Home Counties. Even the most reliable Conservative ward in Canterbury City, St Stephens, is now marginal and in 2015 they only gained seats due to a simultaneous general election and a split vote, with the Conservatives winning all 3 seats in Barton ward with a vote share as low as 24.7%, a good example of the need for electoral reform if ever there was one; Barton falls into the very rare category of "four way marginal" in terms of vote shares for political parties.
With these factors in play, Canterbury became a semi-marginal seat from 1997 onwards, even with nearby Whitstable still being safely Conservative due to its large proportion of retired people. In 2001, Canterbury was one of a minority of Conservative seats with a swing to Labour, who reduced the Conservative majority to its then lowest ever at 2,069 votes (4.6%). In 2010, the Liberal Democrats overtook Labour and actually reduced the majority of (now Sir) Julian Brazier, who could only increase the Conservative vote share in Canterbury by 0.3% that year, due to the high student population. That same student population caused a steep drop in the Liberal Democrat vote there in 2015, but the Conservative vote share also dropped by 1.9%, and Labour kept the seat semi-marginal by achieving a 5.2% swing, in contrast to being pushed back in surrounding Kentish seats by UKIP's rise. The same student population, coming out in droves for Jeremy Corbyn, finally enabled long-term Canterbury resident Rosie Duffield, whose background as a single mother and teaching assistant stood out in her favour, to finally bring an end to 143 years of Conservative representation in Canterbury. It is also worth noting Sir Julian was also one of the most socially conservative of Conservative MPs and his support for Leaving the EU proved decisive to his 187-vote loss, even when UKIP did not stand in 2017.
Mansfield swung in the opposite direction in 2017. Having been a Labour seat continuously since 1923, it was one of only six Conservative gains from Labour in 2017 and with 94 years of previous Labour representation was the longest held Labour seat to be won by the Conservatives that year; four of the other five previously safe Labour seats won by the Conservatives in 2017 had been represented by Labour since 1935 nevertheless, accounting for name and boundary changes. Labour representation in Mansfield had been threatened before, most notably in 1987 when a Moderate Labour candidate polled 1,580 votes amongst the dispute between the moderate and Nottinghamshire-based Democratic Mineworkers' Union and the pro-strike National Union of Mineworkers, reducing the Labour majority to just 56. (Now Sir) Alan Meale upon narrowly holding the seat then managed in 1992 to secure the largest pro-Labour swing that year outside Plymouth, 10.6%. But in 2001, the loss of the mines, textile mills, and breweries, whose workers were mainly loyal Labour voters through and through, were beginning to make their mark, especially with the then relatively new railway station and excellent bus and road links making the town more attractive to Midlands commuters who could also buy houses at very low prices (less than £100,000 at a time house prices in London were rocketing past the £250,000 mark on average), and Labour endured one of the heaviest pro-Conservative swings against them that year-6.7%. Mansfield's wards have a high proportion of people in routine or semi-routine occupations, with seven wards being in the top 100 for people in routine occupations, and in half the wards of Mansfield, the proportion of owner-occupiers exceeds 80%, with three of them being in the top 100 for owner-occupiers. Conversely, large proportions of Mansfield are in the bottom 10% for people in management or professional occupations. Voters of this type turned out heavily for Leave in the EU referendum and swung heavily to the Conservatives in 2017. In 2010, one of Labour's worst years, Sir Alan endured a further 9.5% swing against him compared to an average 5% swing from Labour to Conservative. Mansfield, being a self contained town, then started developing a strong Independent vote locally on the back of Stuart Rickersley, who with a 17% vote share achieved in 2005 the best result for an Independent candidate not also endorsed by a significant political party. In 2015, UKIP capitalised particularly well on the "old Labour vote" in addition to the "racist right" vote, polling as high as 25.1%. Mansfield then voted 71% to Leave in the EU referendum with Sir Alan calling for a Remain vote. The very next year, his pro-EU stance proved fatal to his parliamentary career-after 30 years, he was unseated by the rather controversial and youthful Ben Bradley, who benefitted from the collapsing UKIP vote. Like Sir Julian Brazier, who was not only first elected in the same year as him but also defeated in the same year as him, he had been left behind by the extensive demographic transition his constituency had undergone in the 30 years he had served as MP there.
Demographic changes are long term, meaning that even in bad years for a particular political party, that seat will likely remain in that party's hands if its demographics so naturally favour it, and also have a lower than average swing to an opposition party. The contrasting tales of the constituencies of Canterbury and Mansfield, because of the remarkable way they have changed over the decades, together illustrate the political effects of demographic change more aptly than other current parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom.
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