Analysis of by-elections from 16/8/18 (including one from 9/8/18) and tribute to Aretha Franklin
Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections (and the sole local by-election from last week) are as follows:
(9/8/18):
Cornwall UA, Newquay Treviglas: Conservative 363 (45.4%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 306 (38.2%, -30.0%), Labour 131 (16.4%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.
(16/8/18):
Bury MBC, East: Labour 1419 (64.2%, +4.9%), Conservative 557 (25.2%, -8.9%), UKIP 107 (4.8%), Green 77 (3.5%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 49 (2.2%).
Neath Port Talbot UA, Gwynfi: Independent (Jones) 268 (57.8%, +13.8%), Plaid Cymru 73 (15.7%), Labour 60 (12.9%, -43.3%), Independent (Josh) 45 (9.7%), Independent (Paul) 14 (3.0%), Conservative 4 (0.9%). Independent gain from Labour.
North Yorkshire CC, Knaresborough: Liberal Democrats 2051 (54.9%, +19.3%), Conservative 1313 (35.2%, -3.4%), Labour 369 (9.9%, -1.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Local politics in Britain is localised most of all in Cornwall, where the Conservatives captured the unitarised county council seat on a 21.8% swing but where the Liberal Democrats held the corresponding town council seat; the departing councillor was both a town councillor and the county councillor for Newquay Treviglas.
Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's controversial and offensive burqa remarks (made in response to Denmark's burqa ban, which is actually a ban on all facial coverings but it iswidely believed to be primarily targeted at Muslim wearers of burqas and niqabs:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/31/denmark-passes-law-banning-burqa-and-niqab) , specifically his remarks that Muslim women who wear burqas and niqabs "resembled letterboxes and bank robbers", were undoubtedly the key factor behind the Conservatives' poll ratings dipping below Labour even though Labour's own poll ratings have not recovered much from recent controversies about anti-Semitism allegations; Labour has not polled above 40% in over a month when polls from all recognised polling companies are compared. This partly explains the pathetic Conservative vote total of 4 in Gwynfi, a village near Port Talbot/Aberavon. Most of West Glamorgan has no fondness for the Conservatives at all, but the single-figure vote is a terrible result for the Conservatives even by those standards. Surprisingly, when polled about the remarks afterwards, a large proportion of the public did not think the remarks were racist, and the public were also divided about whether Boris should apologise for his remarks or not. I firmly believe Boris should publicly apologise for his offensive remarks.
Controversy over the remarks also resulted in a 6.9% swing to Labour in a by-election in the East ward of Bury, and the Conservatives' loss of Knaresborough, a county council seat located in the borough of Harrogate where the Liberal Democrats notionally lost 5 seats in May with the Liberal Democrats also winning only one of the four wards covering Knaresborough,, can be blamed on loss of support for the Conservatives following Boris' comments. The Conservative candidate who stood in that by-election, Phil Ireland, is the Mayor of Knaresborough and he has been a district councillor there for 7 years, two factors which should have helped him hold the nevertheless ultra-marginal division, which the Liberal Democrats lost by only 21 votes last year. However, the Liberal Democrats' victorious candidate, David Goode, had local credentials and the lack of a Green candidate indirectly helped him win the division, with UKIP's absence not helping the Conservatives.
On a non-political note, Aretha Franklin, widely known as the "Queen of Soul" and one of the greatest singers of the 1960s, died yesterday at the age of 76. She will always be remembered for her beautiful and inspiring songs and what she represented on the musical stage. We are all saying a prayer for you, Aretha, as you sang back in 1967, and you shall be in our hearts forever.
(9/8/18):
Cornwall UA, Newquay Treviglas: Conservative 363 (45.4%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 306 (38.2%, -30.0%), Labour 131 (16.4%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.
(16/8/18):
Bury MBC, East: Labour 1419 (64.2%, +4.9%), Conservative 557 (25.2%, -8.9%), UKIP 107 (4.8%), Green 77 (3.5%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 49 (2.2%).
Neath Port Talbot UA, Gwynfi: Independent (Jones) 268 (57.8%, +13.8%), Plaid Cymru 73 (15.7%), Labour 60 (12.9%, -43.3%), Independent (Josh) 45 (9.7%), Independent (Paul) 14 (3.0%), Conservative 4 (0.9%). Independent gain from Labour.
North Yorkshire CC, Knaresborough: Liberal Democrats 2051 (54.9%, +19.3%), Conservative 1313 (35.2%, -3.4%), Labour 369 (9.9%, -1.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Local politics in Britain is localised most of all in Cornwall, where the Conservatives captured the unitarised county council seat on a 21.8% swing but where the Liberal Democrats held the corresponding town council seat; the departing councillor was both a town councillor and the county councillor for Newquay Treviglas.
Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson's controversial and offensive burqa remarks (made in response to Denmark's burqa ban, which is actually a ban on all facial coverings but it iswidely believed to be primarily targeted at Muslim wearers of burqas and niqabs:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/31/denmark-passes-law-banning-burqa-and-niqab) , specifically his remarks that Muslim women who wear burqas and niqabs "resembled letterboxes and bank robbers", were undoubtedly the key factor behind the Conservatives' poll ratings dipping below Labour even though Labour's own poll ratings have not recovered much from recent controversies about anti-Semitism allegations; Labour has not polled above 40% in over a month when polls from all recognised polling companies are compared. This partly explains the pathetic Conservative vote total of 4 in Gwynfi, a village near Port Talbot/Aberavon. Most of West Glamorgan has no fondness for the Conservatives at all, but the single-figure vote is a terrible result for the Conservatives even by those standards. Surprisingly, when polled about the remarks afterwards, a large proportion of the public did not think the remarks were racist, and the public were also divided about whether Boris should apologise for his remarks or not. I firmly believe Boris should publicly apologise for his offensive remarks.
Controversy over the remarks also resulted in a 6.9% swing to Labour in a by-election in the East ward of Bury, and the Conservatives' loss of Knaresborough, a county council seat located in the borough of Harrogate where the Liberal Democrats notionally lost 5 seats in May with the Liberal Democrats also winning only one of the four wards covering Knaresborough,, can be blamed on loss of support for the Conservatives following Boris' comments. The Conservative candidate who stood in that by-election, Phil Ireland, is the Mayor of Knaresborough and he has been a district councillor there for 7 years, two factors which should have helped him hold the nevertheless ultra-marginal division, which the Liberal Democrats lost by only 21 votes last year. However, the Liberal Democrats' victorious candidate, David Goode, had local credentials and the lack of a Green candidate indirectly helped him win the division, with UKIP's absence not helping the Conservatives.
On a non-political note, Aretha Franklin, widely known as the "Queen of Soul" and one of the greatest singers of the 1960s, died yesterday at the age of 76. She will always be remembered for her beautiful and inspiring songs and what she represented on the musical stage. We are all saying a prayer for you, Aretha, as you sang back in 1967, and you shall be in our hearts forever.
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