My analysis of British local by-elections from 23/8/18
Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections are as follows:
Cornwall UA, Bude: Liberal Democrats 1,010 (53.2%, +1.0%), Independent (Willingham) 475 (25.0%), Conservative 264 (13.9%, -24.2%), Labour 148 (7.4%, -1.9%).
East Hertfordshire DC, Watton-at-Stone: Liberal Democrats 531 (67.0%), Conservative 238 (30.1%, -36.4%), Labour 23 (2.9%, -8.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Knowsley MBC, Halewood South: Labour 1,012 (51.6%, +5.8%), Independent (Swann) 778 (39.7%), Liberal Democrats 118 (6.0%), Conservative 54 (2.8%, -4.2%). All changes are since May.
North Warwickshire DC, Newton Regis & Wharton: Conservative 451 (52.2%, +2.2%), Labour 413 (47.8%, +20.1%).
Rushcliffe BC, Gotham: Conservative 355 (40.4%, -12.5%), Labour 275 (31.3%, +7.4%), Independent (Matthews)* 160 (18.2%), Liberal Democrats 63 (7.2%), Green 25 (2.8%).
Wirral MBC, Bromborough: Labour 1,253 (47.1%, -14.0%), Conservative 749 (28.1%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 454 (17.1%, +5.9%), Independent (Niblock) 147 (5.5%), Green 59 (2.2%, -3.5%).
*The Independent candidate in this by-election, Stuart Matthews, was in fact the Conservative councillor who resigned and sought re-election as an independent.
August is the quietest month for British politics generally, with the second half of December being almost as quiet; these months generally have the lowest turnout in local by-elections and British parliamentary by-elections never take place in August as this is during the summer recess of Parliament.
Locally recognised independent candidates did well this week but none of them won a by-election; former Liberal Democrat councillor Stephen Niblock was the exception, coming second to last despite having represented the ward for 12 years (2004 to 2016), 8 years as a Liberal Democrat and 4 years as a Labour councillor. Having stood down in 2016 he lost the local momentum he needed to be competitive in the by-election.The Independent candidate in Bude, Bob Willingham, had been the Conservative candidate there in 2017 running a close second to the Liberal Democrats. The seaside town of Bude has been a Liberal stronghold for many years but local renown is still crucial to success in Cornish politics in any Cornish town or village. The Liberal Democrats were returned in Bude once again but Bob Willingham did push his former party into third place nevertheless.
The decision of former Conservative councillor Stuart Matthews to stand for re-election as an Independent backfired-he finished a poor third behind Labour despite having resigned over a worthy cause (there was also an attempt to deselect him; Rushcliffe council's next elections are next year). This cause is the proposed development of houses off the A453, which many Gotham residents object to. Many of the objectors were presumably on holiday at the time of the by-election, and the other villages of the Gotham ward were clearly less opposed to the development. The swing to Labour in this by-election was only 10%, although low swings are expected of by-elections in rural wards except where particularly well-regarded candidates from other parties (usually Liberal Democrat or Green) stand. Meanwhile, the performance of Independent candidate Robert Swann in Halewood South can be traced to an Independent win in the same Halewood South ward earlier this year, and strong local dissatisfaction with the Labour-controlled council which helped the Green Party win their first seat there in May.
The absence of UKIP in Warwickshire was likely just enough to save the Conservatives from a by-election loss in Newton Regis & Wharton, but Labour achieved a substantial swing nevertheless even though North Warwickshire is trending away from them in the long term, just like nearby Nuneaton which is increasingly home to Conservative-minded middle-income commuters to both Birmingham and London.
A lack of opposition on a local council creates high potential for high swings which could not be achieved in a standard council election except in exceptional circumstances. East Hertfordshire, where I grew up, is just such a council, having elected 50 Conservative councillors out of 50 in 2015 despite every one of them having at least one opponent in that election. The only four "independents" are three former Conservative councillors who have lost the whip and one who is actually a Conservative but failed to register the description on the ballot paper when she was standing in the Thundridge by-election due to an administrative error by her election agent. The Liberal Democrats' win on a spectacular 51.7% swing from the Conservatives gives East Herts an opposition councillor once again in one of the most safely Conservative district councils in Britain. The large swing is attributable to the fact the village of Watton at Stone is home to a large number of London commuters, who are generally affluent, pro-EU, and affected strongly by transport policies; such demographics combined with a peaceful village life mean that Watton at Stone is normally an ultra-safe Conservative ward which has also been unchanged since the inaugural election of East Herts District Council in 1973. However, the same affluent commuter demographic turned against the Conservatives to a significant extent during the 2017 general election, both towards the Liberal Democrats and Labour, although the only seat in the Home Counties, London's prime commuter hinterland, which changed hands that year was Reading East and that constituency also has a significant student population.
Cornwall UA, Bude: Liberal Democrats 1,010 (53.2%, +1.0%), Independent (Willingham) 475 (25.0%), Conservative 264 (13.9%, -24.2%), Labour 148 (7.4%, -1.9%).
East Hertfordshire DC, Watton-at-Stone: Liberal Democrats 531 (67.0%), Conservative 238 (30.1%, -36.4%), Labour 23 (2.9%, -8.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Knowsley MBC, Halewood South: Labour 1,012 (51.6%, +5.8%), Independent (Swann) 778 (39.7%), Liberal Democrats 118 (6.0%), Conservative 54 (2.8%, -4.2%). All changes are since May.
North Warwickshire DC, Newton Regis & Wharton: Conservative 451 (52.2%, +2.2%), Labour 413 (47.8%, +20.1%).
Rushcliffe BC, Gotham: Conservative 355 (40.4%, -12.5%), Labour 275 (31.3%, +7.4%), Independent (Matthews)* 160 (18.2%), Liberal Democrats 63 (7.2%), Green 25 (2.8%).
Wirral MBC, Bromborough: Labour 1,253 (47.1%, -14.0%), Conservative 749 (28.1%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 454 (17.1%, +5.9%), Independent (Niblock) 147 (5.5%), Green 59 (2.2%, -3.5%).
*The Independent candidate in this by-election, Stuart Matthews, was in fact the Conservative councillor who resigned and sought re-election as an independent.
August is the quietest month for British politics generally, with the second half of December being almost as quiet; these months generally have the lowest turnout in local by-elections and British parliamentary by-elections never take place in August as this is during the summer recess of Parliament.
Locally recognised independent candidates did well this week but none of them won a by-election; former Liberal Democrat councillor Stephen Niblock was the exception, coming second to last despite having represented the ward for 12 years (2004 to 2016), 8 years as a Liberal Democrat and 4 years as a Labour councillor. Having stood down in 2016 he lost the local momentum he needed to be competitive in the by-election.The Independent candidate in Bude, Bob Willingham, had been the Conservative candidate there in 2017 running a close second to the Liberal Democrats. The seaside town of Bude has been a Liberal stronghold for many years but local renown is still crucial to success in Cornish politics in any Cornish town or village. The Liberal Democrats were returned in Bude once again but Bob Willingham did push his former party into third place nevertheless.
The decision of former Conservative councillor Stuart Matthews to stand for re-election as an Independent backfired-he finished a poor third behind Labour despite having resigned over a worthy cause (there was also an attempt to deselect him; Rushcliffe council's next elections are next year). This cause is the proposed development of houses off the A453, which many Gotham residents object to. Many of the objectors were presumably on holiday at the time of the by-election, and the other villages of the Gotham ward were clearly less opposed to the development. The swing to Labour in this by-election was only 10%, although low swings are expected of by-elections in rural wards except where particularly well-regarded candidates from other parties (usually Liberal Democrat or Green) stand. Meanwhile, the performance of Independent candidate Robert Swann in Halewood South can be traced to an Independent win in the same Halewood South ward earlier this year, and strong local dissatisfaction with the Labour-controlled council which helped the Green Party win their first seat there in May.
The absence of UKIP in Warwickshire was likely just enough to save the Conservatives from a by-election loss in Newton Regis & Wharton, but Labour achieved a substantial swing nevertheless even though North Warwickshire is trending away from them in the long term, just like nearby Nuneaton which is increasingly home to Conservative-minded middle-income commuters to both Birmingham and London.
A lack of opposition on a local council creates high potential for high swings which could not be achieved in a standard council election except in exceptional circumstances. East Hertfordshire, where I grew up, is just such a council, having elected 50 Conservative councillors out of 50 in 2015 despite every one of them having at least one opponent in that election. The only four "independents" are three former Conservative councillors who have lost the whip and one who is actually a Conservative but failed to register the description on the ballot paper when she was standing in the Thundridge by-election due to an administrative error by her election agent. The Liberal Democrats' win on a spectacular 51.7% swing from the Conservatives gives East Herts an opposition councillor once again in one of the most safely Conservative district councils in Britain. The large swing is attributable to the fact the village of Watton at Stone is home to a large number of London commuters, who are generally affluent, pro-EU, and affected strongly by transport policies; such demographics combined with a peaceful village life mean that Watton at Stone is normally an ultra-safe Conservative ward which has also been unchanged since the inaugural election of East Herts District Council in 1973. However, the same affluent commuter demographic turned against the Conservatives to a significant extent during the 2017 general election, both towards the Liberal Democrats and Labour, although the only seat in the Home Counties, London's prime commuter hinterland, which changed hands that year was Reading East and that constituency also has a significant student population.
Comments
Post a Comment