On the Catalan regional election of 2017
The Catalan general election of 2017, called on the orders of hardline unionist conservative Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy who is determined to stop Catalonian independence by nearly any means, produced a rather interesting and divided result. It is worth noting that the decisive vote for Catalonian independence was enhanced by anger at the heavy-handed means used by the Spanish Government to suppress it, especially by the police. At this election, however, nothing approaching such action was taken and it ran without major incident.
The most striking thing is the realignment that took place on both the unionist and separatist sides of the divide in Catalonia's electorate. It was the pro-union Citizens' Party that topped the poll, winning as many as 37 seats and 25.4% of the vote, more than any of the individual pro-independence parties in Catalonia. A considerable proportion of their vote came from the increasingly unpopular People's Party (to whom Mariano belongs to), who lost half their 2015 vote and saw their seat total drop to a historic low of 3 from their 2015 seat total of 11. The harsh behaviour of Rajoy's government turned large numbers of moderate conservatives towards the C's, who are more supportive of Catalan devolution yet oppose Catalan independence of any type.
However, despite none of them topping the poll, pro-independence parties still hold power in Catalonia. Coalitions of smaller parties were the order of the day amongst pro-independence Catalan parties, with the largest being the big tent Together for Catalonia and the socialist Republican Left of Catalonia winning 34 and 32 seats respectively. Podemos and Popular Unity Candidacy (also forming coalitions with smaller groups) were hit badly by the bigger coalitions, losing 3 and 6 seats apiece respectively although they remain represented in the Parliament of Catalonia nevertheless. Podemos' lack of support for Catalan independence resulted in a desertion of its far-left (as opposed to moderate left) voters to pro-independence parties. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), meanwhile, secured only one extra seat and saw many of its liberal voters head towards the C's. Any progress it hopes to make will be further hampered by the fact the vast majority of left-wing voters in Catalonia are pro-independence, whereas PSOE, like PP, is not. Pro-Catalan independence parties won a total of 70 seats in the 2017 Catalan parliament, compared to a total of only 57 for pro-Spanish nationalist parties and 8 for Podemos, who support self-determination for Catalonia but not independence from Spain. Ironically, pro-independence parties in Catalonia won a total of only 47.4% of the vote, meaning they will have to wait before they can press for Catalan independence, especially with the next Spanish general election not occurring until 2020.
This election follows the trend in Spanish politics towards the formation of coalitions of smaller parties, especially on the left, in order to oust the old order and prevent a return to the PP/PSOE merry-go-round. Only three parties in this election failed to win seats, which were PACMA (Spain's animal rights party), the eco-socialist coalition Zero Cuts-Green Group, and the unknown For a Fairer World Party, and their vote totals were 0.89%, 0.23%, and 0.01% respectively, meaning 98.87% of Catalan voters now have representation somewhere in the new Catalan parliament. The core issue of independence also sparked a sharp increase in turnout, from 74.95% to 81.94%, still below the 85% turnout seen in the Scottish independence referendum. This is in spite of the fact that voting in Catalonia now boils down to this above all else: you either support Catalan independence or you do not. All other issues paled in comparison and the differences between the different pro-Catalan independence coalitions are not very significant. The importance of this issue only had mild effects on blank ballots and invalid votes-the percentage of them decreased by insignificant amounts but they had already sharply dropped in the 2015 Catalan election. In free and fair elections, there will always be a tiny core of active abstainers who turn out to cast blank ballots come rain or shine and irrespective of everything else, and vote spoiling is usually accidental and/or down to voter confusion rather than intentional.
Both of the main pro-independence party leaders, Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Juniqueras, are unable to take their seats at this time or lead their parties in the new Catalan Parliament as a consequence of the Spanish government's fight to stop Catalan independence. Carles has exiled himself to Belgium to avoid charges of rebellion, sedition, and embezzlement, and Oriol is being held without bail pending a trial on the same charges. Carles is free but cannot leave Belgium as he was required by Belgian police to surrender his passport; a European Arrest Warrant has been issued for his arrest courtesy of the Spanish Attorney General Jose Manuel Maza. Self-exile has also been proclaimed by six other members of the deposed Catalan government. Therefore, the leader of the C's, Ines Arrimadas, could form a minority pro-Spain government in Catalonia at least for the time being, although this will not last long if it happens. This election has nevertheless made clear that Catalonia's right to self-determination should be respected, and if it wants to break free from Spain, it should be allowed to do so amicably as attempts to forcibly stop it will only cause further harm to Spain as a whole.
The most striking thing is the realignment that took place on both the unionist and separatist sides of the divide in Catalonia's electorate. It was the pro-union Citizens' Party that topped the poll, winning as many as 37 seats and 25.4% of the vote, more than any of the individual pro-independence parties in Catalonia. A considerable proportion of their vote came from the increasingly unpopular People's Party (to whom Mariano belongs to), who lost half their 2015 vote and saw their seat total drop to a historic low of 3 from their 2015 seat total of 11. The harsh behaviour of Rajoy's government turned large numbers of moderate conservatives towards the C's, who are more supportive of Catalan devolution yet oppose Catalan independence of any type.
However, despite none of them topping the poll, pro-independence parties still hold power in Catalonia. Coalitions of smaller parties were the order of the day amongst pro-independence Catalan parties, with the largest being the big tent Together for Catalonia and the socialist Republican Left of Catalonia winning 34 and 32 seats respectively. Podemos and Popular Unity Candidacy (also forming coalitions with smaller groups) were hit badly by the bigger coalitions, losing 3 and 6 seats apiece respectively although they remain represented in the Parliament of Catalonia nevertheless. Podemos' lack of support for Catalan independence resulted in a desertion of its far-left (as opposed to moderate left) voters to pro-independence parties. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), meanwhile, secured only one extra seat and saw many of its liberal voters head towards the C's. Any progress it hopes to make will be further hampered by the fact the vast majority of left-wing voters in Catalonia are pro-independence, whereas PSOE, like PP, is not. Pro-Catalan independence parties won a total of 70 seats in the 2017 Catalan parliament, compared to a total of only 57 for pro-Spanish nationalist parties and 8 for Podemos, who support self-determination for Catalonia but not independence from Spain. Ironically, pro-independence parties in Catalonia won a total of only 47.4% of the vote, meaning they will have to wait before they can press for Catalan independence, especially with the next Spanish general election not occurring until 2020.
This election follows the trend in Spanish politics towards the formation of coalitions of smaller parties, especially on the left, in order to oust the old order and prevent a return to the PP/PSOE merry-go-round. Only three parties in this election failed to win seats, which were PACMA (Spain's animal rights party), the eco-socialist coalition Zero Cuts-Green Group, and the unknown For a Fairer World Party, and their vote totals were 0.89%, 0.23%, and 0.01% respectively, meaning 98.87% of Catalan voters now have representation somewhere in the new Catalan parliament. The core issue of independence also sparked a sharp increase in turnout, from 74.95% to 81.94%, still below the 85% turnout seen in the Scottish independence referendum. This is in spite of the fact that voting in Catalonia now boils down to this above all else: you either support Catalan independence or you do not. All other issues paled in comparison and the differences between the different pro-Catalan independence coalitions are not very significant. The importance of this issue only had mild effects on blank ballots and invalid votes-the percentage of them decreased by insignificant amounts but they had already sharply dropped in the 2015 Catalan election. In free and fair elections, there will always be a tiny core of active abstainers who turn out to cast blank ballots come rain or shine and irrespective of everything else, and vote spoiling is usually accidental and/or down to voter confusion rather than intentional.
Both of the main pro-independence party leaders, Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Juniqueras, are unable to take their seats at this time or lead their parties in the new Catalan Parliament as a consequence of the Spanish government's fight to stop Catalan independence. Carles has exiled himself to Belgium to avoid charges of rebellion, sedition, and embezzlement, and Oriol is being held without bail pending a trial on the same charges. Carles is free but cannot leave Belgium as he was required by Belgian police to surrender his passport; a European Arrest Warrant has been issued for his arrest courtesy of the Spanish Attorney General Jose Manuel Maza. Self-exile has also been proclaimed by six other members of the deposed Catalan government. Therefore, the leader of the C's, Ines Arrimadas, could form a minority pro-Spain government in Catalonia at least for the time being, although this will not last long if it happens. This election has nevertheless made clear that Catalonia's right to self-determination should be respected, and if it wants to break free from Spain, it should be allowed to do so amicably as attempts to forcibly stop it will only cause further harm to Spain as a whole.
Thanks again Alan for another excellent detailed analysis - I cannot agree though with the conclusion. This is yet another election where voting is split down the middle - Scottish independence, Brexit, Trump - rather than showing a decisive mood one way or the other. In situations where nationalism/regionalism rears its head it is better to recognise that there is not necessarily anything progressive or reactionary about the stance of individuals. In other words there are good people on each side and bad people on each side. There are many excellent people who see Catalonian independence as being a diversion from the real struggles for social and environmental justice. They would have been in the majority (over 50%) of voters who voted against the pro-independence parties (who to demonstrate my point above consist of parties across the political spectrum, as do the 'remainer' parties). There is clearly no significant majority in favour of independence. To shift this analysis to the UK - I have more in common with a Brexiteer who wants to fight austerity, fracking etc than a Remainer who wants to continue the dominance of neo-liberalism over ordinary people. Two GP-related issues - our emphasis on local democracy and decision-making does not mean it is compulsory to support every move towards smaller blocs. Secondly, there is absolutely no guarantee that Labour will win the next GE but the squeeze on Green votes will certainly continue until at least then. I am absolutely in favour of the GP maintaining its radical fight for social and environmental justice (i.e. not watering down its politics) and also increasingly go along with the analysis that for this reason we should not in the GE concentrate our finite resources on those seats where we will be bulldozed by the Labour juggernaut (flexibility of course, in South London in the local elections we are fighting hard against incumbent Labour). Chris Glenn
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