My analysis of British local by-elections from 30/11/17

Readers, the results of local by-elections from 30/11/17 were as follows:

Gosport BC, Bridgemary North: Liberal Democrats 644 (57.9%), Labour 255 (23.0%, -49.0%), Conservative 212 (19.1%, -8.9%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are since 2016.

Maidstone BC, Maidstone North: Liberal Democrats 719 (51.4%, +20.0%), Conservative 364 (26.0%, -6.0%), Labour 270 (19.3%, +8.0%), Green 47 (3.4%, -2.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2015.

Tandridge DC, Westway: Liberal Democrats 483 (53.5%, +17.6%), Conservative 239 (26.5%, -2.5%), Labour 118 (13.1%, -2.8%), UKIP 62 (6.9%, -12.2%).

Torridge DC, Torrington: Liberal Democrats 701 (60.2%), Independent 180 (15.5%), Conservative 159 (13.6%, -6.2%), Green 76 (6.5%, -16.2%), UKIP 49 (4.2%, -17.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP.

No-one can doubt that this week has been one of the best for the Liberal Democrats in terms of by-elections, since all of them were won by the Liberal Democrats with over 50% of the votes cast. The swing of approximately 53.5% they achieved in one of the poorest and most solidly Labour parts of Gosport would make even Sir Simon Hughes proud (his record swing of 44.2% in the Bermondsey by-election of 1983 is still a record today), especially when the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit in the Gosport constituency in June.

Their capture of Maidstone North was in fact a foregone conclusion given that their loss of it in 2015 coincided with a general election, which indirectly gave the Conservatives an advantage then as with all local elections that coincide with general elections. Maidstone is one of the most politically competitive towns in Britain, despite having always lain in a safe Conservative seat, making the Lib Dems' performance in that by-election all the more impressive.

In the Caterham suburb of Westway, Tandridge, the swing is much in line with the variable anti-Brexit swing seen in most of Surrey in June (except in Spelthorne, formerly part of Middlesex), and it also reflects the fact the ward was marginal and UKIP's collapse, in a poorer night for the Liberal Democrats, could have aided a Conservative gain of that ward.

Out of these four, Torrington produced an even more surprising result than Bridgemary North. It reflects the importance of personal votes in rural areas even where a particular party would naturally have a better chance. Green stalwart Cathrine Simmons holds one of the seats in Torrington ward, but the Greens still finished fourth as their candidate did not have the long-standing profile Cathrine has even though Torridge has one of the highest Green potentials for any rural district, even by Devon standards. The Independent, Di Daney, did not come close to beating the Liberal Democrats either despite having become the Mayor of Torrington Town, instead coming a distant second. The Liberal Democrats' result is not as surprising as one would first believe given that there has almost always been at least one Liberal Democrat councillor for Torrington ward, although they failed to defend it in 2015. Even in the worst years for the Liberal Democrats, Torridge as a district has delivered comparatively good results for them.

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