My analysis of British local by-elections of December 2017
The results for the last set of local by-elections in Britain for this year are as follows:
07/12/17:
Enfield LBC, Enfield Highway: Labour 1619 (69.8%, +22.9%), Conservative 620 (26.7%, +9.2%), Green 79 (3.4%, -6.5%). [BNP and UKIP from 2014 did not stand]
North Devon DC, Newport: Liberal Democrats 390 (38.8%, +9.0%), Conservative 373 (37.1%, -6.0%), Green 159 (15.8%, -11.3%), Labour 83 (8.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
13/12/17:
Exeter BC, Newtown & St Leonards: Labour 1044 (54.6%, +5.3%), Conservative 512 (26.8%, +3.5%), Liberal Democrats 179 (9.4%, +1.7%), Green 137 (7.2%, -3.9%), UKIP 40 (2.1%, -3.3%). [Independence From Europe from 2016 did not stand]
Waverley BC, Godalming Central & Ockford: Liberal Democrats 266 (37.8%), Conservative 246 (35.0%, -4.8%), Labour 151 (21.5%, -5.4%), Green 40 (5.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Something New and the Independent from 2015 did not stand]
14/12/17:
City of London Corporation, Portsoken: Independent Goyal 228 (58.6%), Labour 143 (35.8%), Independent Barker 20 (5.1%), Independent Samuels 2 (0.5%).
Barnsley MBC, Rockingham: Labour 938 (66.6%, +15.0%), Conservative 272 (19.3%, +10.9%), Liberal Democrats 199 (14.1%). All changes are since 2016. [UKIP, English Democrats and TUSC did not stand]
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Bradwell: Labour 396 (50.7%, -3.1%), Conservative 360 (46.1%, +27.4%), Liberal Democrats 25 (3.2%, -0.1%). [UKIP did not stand] All changes are since 2016.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Newchapel: Conservative 216 (43.3%, -6.3%), Labour 197 (39.5%, -10.9%), Independent 86 (17.2%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since 2016.
Salford MBC, Langworthy: Labour 601 (58.0%, +8.9%), Conservative 183 (17.7%, +11.2%), Liberal Democrats 125 (12.1%), Green 72 (6.9%, +1.0%), Independent 55 (5.3%). [UKIP, TUSC, and a different Independent from 2016 did not stand]. All changes are since 2016.
Torbay UA, Watcombe: Liberal Democrats 655 (57.1%, +13.4%), Conservative 355 (30.9%, +7.8%), Labour 121 (10.5%, -6.3%), Green 17 (1.5%, -5.2%). [UKIP did not stand]
Torridge DC, Westward Ho!: Independent (Law) 321 (46.9%), Conservative 128 (18.7%, -21.5%), UKIP 90 (13.2%), Liberal Democrats 63 (9.2%), Independent (Mason) 47 (6.9%), Labour 35 (5.1%). Independent gain from Conservative. [A previous independent and the Green Party did not stand]
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Handside: Liberal Democrats 1105 (52.4%, +16.9%), Conservative 691 (32.8%, -9.3%), Labour 260 (12.3%, -3.4%), Green 51 (2.4%, -4.3%). Percentage changes are from the averages for this ward; this is a Liberal Democrat hold, not a Liberal Democrat gain.
Wigan MBC, Shevington with Lower Ground: Labour 765 (43.4%, +3.4%), Shevington Independent 552 (31.3%, +5.0%), Conservative 402 (22.8%, +11.5%), Green 30 (1.7%,-1.9%), Liberal Democrats 15 (0.9%). [UKIP did not stand] All changes are since 2016.
Note: When I indicate that a particular party or independent candidate did not stand, it is in reference to the previous election for that ward, and not any other election for that ward.
A splendid yerelash (from the Russian meaning a miscellaneous mixture) of by-elections from across the country to end the year this is. The Liberal Democrats made two gains and one clear hold in Torbay, although that was with only a 2.8% swing in their favour.
The near-miss for the Conservatives in Bradwell and their gain in Newchapel are par for the course rather than particularly impressive, as the Labour administration in Newcastle-under-Lyme has been suffering from serious functional problems, culminating in a report shaming Newcastle-under-Lyme council for their poor conduction of the general election there in June, which could have either prevented a Conservative gain or resulted in it going down to the wire (i.e. a recount with the margins in double figures). Newcastle-under-Lyme is also trending sharply towards the Conservatives with the disappearance of the "Potteries" demographic and an increasing proportion of commuters to Birmingham and Stoke-on-Trent. The Conservatives had a mixed night elsewhere, helped by UKIP's absence from most of these local by-elections.
The disappearance of Something New from the Godalming Central & Ockford by-election was undoubtedly helpful to the Liberal Democrats, given that Something New's few voters were in the liberal camp of voters. The lack of media insight into remote rural areas (many local newspapers have disappeared or have been taken over by media giants) means I can only assume that the Independent who won in Westward Ho! had strong standing in that village as they had not stood in the ward previously. It was overall poor for the Greens, especially in Newport, Barnstaple despite having a well-known activist, Ricky Knight, who has been campaigning there for many years; the Liberal Democrat-Conservative squeeze was the primary factor here. However, the Langworthy by-election in Salford did record a rare increase in the Green Party's vote share.
07/12/17:
Enfield LBC, Enfield Highway: Labour 1619 (69.8%, +22.9%), Conservative 620 (26.7%, +9.2%), Green 79 (3.4%, -6.5%). [BNP and UKIP from 2014 did not stand]
North Devon DC, Newport: Liberal Democrats 390 (38.8%, +9.0%), Conservative 373 (37.1%, -6.0%), Green 159 (15.8%, -11.3%), Labour 83 (8.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
13/12/17:
Exeter BC, Newtown & St Leonards: Labour 1044 (54.6%, +5.3%), Conservative 512 (26.8%, +3.5%), Liberal Democrats 179 (9.4%, +1.7%), Green 137 (7.2%, -3.9%), UKIP 40 (2.1%, -3.3%). [Independence From Europe from 2016 did not stand]
Waverley BC, Godalming Central & Ockford: Liberal Democrats 266 (37.8%), Conservative 246 (35.0%, -4.8%), Labour 151 (21.5%, -5.4%), Green 40 (5.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Something New and the Independent from 2015 did not stand]
14/12/17:
City of London Corporation, Portsoken: Independent Goyal 228 (58.6%), Labour 143 (35.8%), Independent Barker 20 (5.1%), Independent Samuels 2 (0.5%).
Barnsley MBC, Rockingham: Labour 938 (66.6%, +15.0%), Conservative 272 (19.3%, +10.9%), Liberal Democrats 199 (14.1%). All changes are since 2016. [UKIP, English Democrats and TUSC did not stand]
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Bradwell: Labour 396 (50.7%, -3.1%), Conservative 360 (46.1%, +27.4%), Liberal Democrats 25 (3.2%, -0.1%). [UKIP did not stand] All changes are since 2016.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Newchapel: Conservative 216 (43.3%, -6.3%), Labour 197 (39.5%, -10.9%), Independent 86 (17.2%). Conservative gain from Labour; all changes are since 2016.
Salford MBC, Langworthy: Labour 601 (58.0%, +8.9%), Conservative 183 (17.7%, +11.2%), Liberal Democrats 125 (12.1%), Green 72 (6.9%, +1.0%), Independent 55 (5.3%). [UKIP, TUSC, and a different Independent from 2016 did not stand]. All changes are since 2016.
Torbay UA, Watcombe: Liberal Democrats 655 (57.1%, +13.4%), Conservative 355 (30.9%, +7.8%), Labour 121 (10.5%, -6.3%), Green 17 (1.5%, -5.2%). [UKIP did not stand]
Torridge DC, Westward Ho!: Independent (Law) 321 (46.9%), Conservative 128 (18.7%, -21.5%), UKIP 90 (13.2%), Liberal Democrats 63 (9.2%), Independent (Mason) 47 (6.9%), Labour 35 (5.1%). Independent gain from Conservative. [A previous independent and the Green Party did not stand]
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Handside: Liberal Democrats 1105 (52.4%, +16.9%), Conservative 691 (32.8%, -9.3%), Labour 260 (12.3%, -3.4%), Green 51 (2.4%, -4.3%). Percentage changes are from the averages for this ward; this is a Liberal Democrat hold, not a Liberal Democrat gain.
Wigan MBC, Shevington with Lower Ground: Labour 765 (43.4%, +3.4%), Shevington Independent 552 (31.3%, +5.0%), Conservative 402 (22.8%, +11.5%), Green 30 (1.7%,-1.9%), Liberal Democrats 15 (0.9%). [UKIP did not stand] All changes are since 2016.
Note: When I indicate that a particular party or independent candidate did not stand, it is in reference to the previous election for that ward, and not any other election for that ward.
A splendid yerelash (from the Russian meaning a miscellaneous mixture) of by-elections from across the country to end the year this is. The Liberal Democrats made two gains and one clear hold in Torbay, although that was with only a 2.8% swing in their favour.
The near-miss for the Conservatives in Bradwell and their gain in Newchapel are par for the course rather than particularly impressive, as the Labour administration in Newcastle-under-Lyme has been suffering from serious functional problems, culminating in a report shaming Newcastle-under-Lyme council for their poor conduction of the general election there in June, which could have either prevented a Conservative gain or resulted in it going down to the wire (i.e. a recount with the margins in double figures). Newcastle-under-Lyme is also trending sharply towards the Conservatives with the disappearance of the "Potteries" demographic and an increasing proportion of commuters to Birmingham and Stoke-on-Trent. The Conservatives had a mixed night elsewhere, helped by UKIP's absence from most of these local by-elections.
The disappearance of Something New from the Godalming Central & Ockford by-election was undoubtedly helpful to the Liberal Democrats, given that Something New's few voters were in the liberal camp of voters. The lack of media insight into remote rural areas (many local newspapers have disappeared or have been taken over by media giants) means I can only assume that the Independent who won in Westward Ho! had strong standing in that village as they had not stood in the ward previously. It was overall poor for the Greens, especially in Newport, Barnstaple despite having a well-known activist, Ricky Knight, who has been campaigning there for many years; the Liberal Democrat-Conservative squeeze was the primary factor here. However, the Langworthy by-election in Salford did record a rare increase in the Green Party's vote share.
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