My analysis of the Queensland state election of 2017
Counting has not quite finished officially for the Queensland state election of 2017, but the results are clear by now in what has been one of Australia's most nail-biting state elections ever.
Despite the fact that Australia's closest answer to UKIP, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, was winning over many Liberal National and Labor voters, it was Labor under Annastacia Palaszczuk who emerged victorious managing to secure an overall majority with 47 seats, although with a one seat majority she will have to rely on crossbench support in practice. Their 1st preference vote also dropped to 35.5% although the Liberal Nationals were hit the hardest by One Nation. As many as 6 "crossbench" MLAs have been elected to the Queensland state parliament-3 Katter's Australian Party members, 1 One Nation member (Steve Andrew, the first person of South Sea Islander ancestry elected to a state parliament), Independent Sandy Bolton, and the Queensland state parliament's first ever Green, Michael Berkman.
One Nation, polling 13.7%, did not have the impact it did in 1998 despite full preferential voting being substituted for optional preferential voting, which would have routed it easily. Full preferential voting requires all preferences to be listed for a vote to be valid (normal STV ballots allow you to cast as many or as few preferences as you like), meaning under this system all transfers must lead somewhere. Its leader, former LNP leader Steve Dickson, lost his electorate of Buderim and although many ONP candidates made it to the final round of preferences they usually fell short of the mark; Steve Andrew in Mirani was the sole exception, winning it from Labor's Jim Pierce (note: semi-rural Mirani used to be a reliable National seat before Queensland's Liberal and National Parties formally merged and before a significant redistribution). The Greens made a breakthrough in Maiwar, western Brisbane, against the LNP by just coming ahead of Labor on preferences and winning against the LNP in the two candidate preferred vote, but failed to win their top target of South Brisbane despite having elected Jonathan Sri to The Gabba Ward last year, which lies within the electorate. They did however increase their 1st preference vote to as high as 34.7%, coming second for the first time and finishing only 7% behind Labor on the two candidate preferred vote. The Greens in Queensland were invigorated by their Victoria state counterparts' success in a recent by-election in Northcote, taking their vote share up to 9.9%, although this was mostly experienced in the wider Brisbane area. In Noosa, they lost their runner-up position when Independent Sandy Bolton made her stride and won that electorate. Queensland is KAP's strongest state by far but 3 members is an excellent result even then, despite the redistribution and increasing suburbanisation working against them (KAP only contests rural electorates). The disappearance of the Palmer United Party has undoubtedly helped KAP but many PUP voters have been won over by One Nation simultaneously.
The surge of support for smaller parties indirectly made it harder for seats to change hands directly from Liberal National to Labor and vice versa. The Liberal Nationals did not have a good night and their leader, Tim Nicholls, did not have the stand out character of former Premier Campbell Newman. Queensland voters are still very fond of "characters" in their elected representatives. However, the working-class appeal of One Nation allowed the Liberal Nationals to win the electorates of Bundaberg, Townsville, and (notionally) Burdekin from Labor, all three of which had ONP first preferences well above average, especially Burdekin where One Nation's vote was 29.2% making Burdekin a rare three-way marginal. Only six electorates in total were lost by the Liberal Nationals overall, however, despite their 1st preference vote dropping to as low as 33.7%, due to their lost vote being won by smaller parties and not by Labor.
With Australia's two-party system now showing widening cracks which will not close, it should switch over to STV, as used by Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, and make its preferential voting proportional as Ireland does, to accommodate Australians' increasing desire for multiparty politics at all levels. Multi-member STV has been used in the Senate for decades, so there is no good reason not to use it in the House of Representatives. Next year for Australia sees state elections in South Australia and Victoria, where multiparty politics will be put the test more than ever before, courtesy of the Nick Xenophon Team in South Australia and the Greens in Victoria.
Despite the fact that Australia's closest answer to UKIP, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, was winning over many Liberal National and Labor voters, it was Labor under Annastacia Palaszczuk who emerged victorious managing to secure an overall majority with 47 seats, although with a one seat majority she will have to rely on crossbench support in practice. Their 1st preference vote also dropped to 35.5% although the Liberal Nationals were hit the hardest by One Nation. As many as 6 "crossbench" MLAs have been elected to the Queensland state parliament-3 Katter's Australian Party members, 1 One Nation member (Steve Andrew, the first person of South Sea Islander ancestry elected to a state parliament), Independent Sandy Bolton, and the Queensland state parliament's first ever Green, Michael Berkman.
One Nation, polling 13.7%, did not have the impact it did in 1998 despite full preferential voting being substituted for optional preferential voting, which would have routed it easily. Full preferential voting requires all preferences to be listed for a vote to be valid (normal STV ballots allow you to cast as many or as few preferences as you like), meaning under this system all transfers must lead somewhere. Its leader, former LNP leader Steve Dickson, lost his electorate of Buderim and although many ONP candidates made it to the final round of preferences they usually fell short of the mark; Steve Andrew in Mirani was the sole exception, winning it from Labor's Jim Pierce (note: semi-rural Mirani used to be a reliable National seat before Queensland's Liberal and National Parties formally merged and before a significant redistribution). The Greens made a breakthrough in Maiwar, western Brisbane, against the LNP by just coming ahead of Labor on preferences and winning against the LNP in the two candidate preferred vote, but failed to win their top target of South Brisbane despite having elected Jonathan Sri to The Gabba Ward last year, which lies within the electorate. They did however increase their 1st preference vote to as high as 34.7%, coming second for the first time and finishing only 7% behind Labor on the two candidate preferred vote. The Greens in Queensland were invigorated by their Victoria state counterparts' success in a recent by-election in Northcote, taking their vote share up to 9.9%, although this was mostly experienced in the wider Brisbane area. In Noosa, they lost their runner-up position when Independent Sandy Bolton made her stride and won that electorate. Queensland is KAP's strongest state by far but 3 members is an excellent result even then, despite the redistribution and increasing suburbanisation working against them (KAP only contests rural electorates). The disappearance of the Palmer United Party has undoubtedly helped KAP but many PUP voters have been won over by One Nation simultaneously.
The surge of support for smaller parties indirectly made it harder for seats to change hands directly from Liberal National to Labor and vice versa. The Liberal Nationals did not have a good night and their leader, Tim Nicholls, did not have the stand out character of former Premier Campbell Newman. Queensland voters are still very fond of "characters" in their elected representatives. However, the working-class appeal of One Nation allowed the Liberal Nationals to win the electorates of Bundaberg, Townsville, and (notionally) Burdekin from Labor, all three of which had ONP first preferences well above average, especially Burdekin where One Nation's vote was 29.2% making Burdekin a rare three-way marginal. Only six electorates in total were lost by the Liberal Nationals overall, however, despite their 1st preference vote dropping to as low as 33.7%, due to their lost vote being won by smaller parties and not by Labor.
With Australia's two-party system now showing widening cracks which will not close, it should switch over to STV, as used by Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, and make its preferential voting proportional as Ireland does, to accommodate Australians' increasing desire for multiparty politics at all levels. Multi-member STV has been used in the Senate for decades, so there is no good reason not to use it in the House of Representatives. Next year for Australia sees state elections in South Australia and Victoria, where multiparty politics will be put the test more than ever before, courtesy of the Nick Xenophon Team in South Australia and the Greens in Victoria.
Comments
Post a Comment