My analysis of British local by-elections from 14 April 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 14 April 2022 were as follows:

Durham UA, West Auckland: Labour 956  (56.3%, +18.9%), Conservative 554 (32.6%, -8.2%), Independent (Brown) 187 (11.1%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Other Independents did not stand]

Maldon DC, Heybridge West: Liberal Democrats 269 (45.6%), Conservative 107 (18.1%, -23.4%), Independent (Burwood) 93 (15.8%), Independent (Perry) 72 (12.2%), Labour 49 (8.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent. [Other Independents did not stand]

Surrey Heath DC, Bisley & West End: Liberal Democrats 1,286 (66.0%, +48.8%), Conservative 662 (34.0%, -0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [No Independent, UKIP, or Labour candidates this time]

Tewkesbury DC, Brockworth East: Independent (Mills) 346 (69.5%), Conservative 76 (15.3%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 76 (15.3%, +3.4%). Independent gain from No Description* [Labour did not stand]

*The elected councillor, Jason Mills, was the husband of Charlotte Mills, whose resignation caused this particular local by-election.

Just before these by-elections occurred, polls by Electoral Calculus and Find It Now were released stating that the Conservatives stand to lose at least 800 council seats this May, with Labour gaining 800. Although this is clearly going to be an overestimate, the results of this week's by-elections indicate that actual Conservative council seat losses could approach the high hundreds, with 500 being a more realistic maximum in terms of losses.

Labour's convincing gain of West Auckland is a clear sign that the Conservative hold of "Red Wall" seats, for the most part, will not last long, and on current polling an upcoming parliamentary by-election in Wakefield (date TBC by moving of writ for this by-election) will see a repeat of this result.

Given that Maldon, being classically staunch Conservative territory, is not generally inclined towards the Liberal Democrats at either local or parliamentary level, the Liberal Democrats' gain in Heybridge West looks like a fluke by-election result that gets easily reversed at the next election. However, like many small towns within the London commuter belt, it is experiencing demographic change that is more favourable towards the Liberal Democrats in the long term, also helped by the "work from home" exodus which is continuing albeit at a slower pace than last year. These factors also account for a spectacular Liberal Democrat gain in Bisley, near the heathlands that give Surrey Heath District Council its name. As for Brockworth in Tewkesbury, its strong tradition of electing localist independents saw off partisan challenges once again.


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