My analysis of British local by-elections from 7 April 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 7th April were as follows:

Dorset UA, Lyme & Charmouth: Green 594 (43.8%, +27.0%), Conservative 359 (26.5%, -13.7%), Independent (Reynolds) 320 (23.6%, -6.7%), Labour 82 (6.1%, -6.6%). Green gain from Conservative.

East Riding of Yorkshire UA, South Hunsley: Liberal Democrats 1351 (54.7%, +41.1%), Conservative 907 (36.8%, -28.5%), Labour 110 (4.5%, -6.8%), Green 100 (4.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

High Peak DC, Cote Heath: Conservative 585 (55.5%, +8.6%), Labour 413 (39.2%, -14.7%), Green 56 (5.3%). Conservative gain from Labour.

Horsham DC, Storrington & Washington: Green 1281 (47.9%), Conservative 943 (35.2%, -16.1%), Liberal Democrats 453 (16.9%, -13.5%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

Liverpool MBC, Everton: Labour 925 (62.0%, -24.6%), Green 362 (24.2%, +20.5%), Liberal 84 (5.6%, +3.4%), Conservative 51 (3.4%, -1.7%), TUSC 46 (3.1%), Liberal Democrats 25 (1.7%, -0.6%).

Liverpool MBC, Warbreck:  Labour 912 (48.2%, -31.3%), Liberal Democrats 874 (46.2%, +38.3%), Green 61 (3.2%, -1.1%), Conservative 46 (2.4%, -4.1%). [Liberals did not stand]

Mid Devon DC, Cullompton South: Liberal Democrats 318 (47.9%, +26.2%), Conservative 279 (42.0%, +9.3%), Labour 67 (10.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [No Independent or Liberal candidates this time]

Telford & Wrekin UA, Brookside: Labour 531 (58.8%, +20.0%), Conservative 318 (35.2%, +11.8%), Liberal Democrats 54 (6.0%, -11.6%). [UKIP did not stand]

Wolverhampton MBC, East Park: Labour 783 (65.5%, +6.2%), Conservative 412 (34.5%, +17.0%). [No Independent candidates this time]

The local elections in England, Scotland, and Wales, alongside the Northern Irish Assembly election, are now in full swing, so to speak. The Greens got off to an excellent start with two surprise gains as well as achieving a 22.5% swing in the Everton by-election, although this year Liverpool's elections have been cancelled and instead Liverpool will hold a full council election next year, and hold full council elections every four years henceforth. The Liberal Democrats also managed a strong start with two by-election wins in rural Conservative heartlands, in addition to a near miss in otherwise solidly Labour Warbreck ward, Liverpool. The cost-of-living crisis is already biting hard and even more affluent voters are being affected, and Rishi Sunak's Spring statement is already being condemned as out of touch and elitist. Furthermore, National Insurance hikes and tax rises have been announced at a time when families can least afford them.

By contrast, Labour polled poorly in every by-election this week except that of Brookside in Telford & Wrekin, despite still leading voter intention polls consistently. Critically, their loss of the Cote Heath by-election cost them control of High Peak council although it is likely that the Liberal Democrats will support them instead of the Conservatives. It must also be said that Sir Keir Starmer does not have good public approval ratings, but they are clearly better than those of Boris Johnson or the aforementioned Rishi Sunak at present. The large swings against them in two very safe Labour wards in Liverpool are also signs that they are going to receive a rude awakening next year.

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