Alan's Green Thoughts

The German federal election of 2021 resulted in a sea of electoral change following the retirement of long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel, which will mark a new direction not only for Germany but also in all likelihood much of Europe.  The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) [in tandem with the Christian Social Union, its more conservative sister party which only stands in Bavaria] of which Dr Merkel was leader under her tenure as Chancellor of Germany crashed and burned this election. Not only did they lose nearly half their Wahlkreise (constituency seats) with the added indignity of seeing many incumbents being pushed into third place (often by the Greens in the former West, or the AfD in the former East) in their respective constituency, but they achieved their worst ever result in terms of vote share and their worst seat total since their inaugural run in 1949. In total they won just 196 seats (nearly a quarter of whom were CSU seats) and polled only 24.1%.  By any standard...

The Icelandic parliamentary election of 2021, contrary to prior polling expectations, did not result in a situation that would oust Left-Green PM Katrin Jakobsdottir, despite the Left-Green Movement losing significant amounts of support in urban Iceland. The Left-Green Movement nevertheless lost 3 of its 11 seats and polled 12.9%, meaning it was pushed into third place by the Progressive Party, which in reality is equivalent to the Centre Parties of Norway, Sweden and Finland in terms of outlook and voter base. A primary reason the Left-Greens lost seats was the compromises that had to be made to include the Progressive and Independence Parties in Mrs Jakobsdottir's coalition, The Progressive Party polled 17.3% and won an extra 5 seats, giving it 13 and placing it second behind the usually dominant Independence Party of Iceland, equivalent to the UK's Conservative Party in practice. Part of the reason for their striking progress, though, was the scandal that the Centre Party, w...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 23 September 2021 were as follows: Charnwood BC, Shepshed West: Conservative 511 (43.6%, +3.7%), Labour 316 (26.9%, +0.0%), Green 302 (25.7%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 44 (3.8%, -3.0%). [UKIP did not stand] East Cambridgeshire DC, Soham North: Conservative 484 (50.8%, +8.6%), Liberal Democrats 369 (38.8%, -9.8%), Labour 71 (7.5%, -2.2%), Green 28 (2.9%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. East Devon DC, Exe Valley: Liberal Democrats 191 (36.9%, -19.8%), Conservative 164 (31.8%, -11.5%), Labour 161 (31.3%). Epsom & Ewell BC, Cuddington: Residents' Association 585 (56.0%, -10.8%), Labour 207 (19.8%, +10.2%), Conservative 135 (12.9%, +1.3%), Liberal Democrats 117 (11.2%, -1.9%). Hammersmith & Fulham LBC, Wormholt & White City: Labour 1,462 (70.0%, -6.5%), Conservative 431 (20.6%, +6.4%), Green 110 (5.3%), Liberal Democrats 86 (4.1%, -2.3%). South Lakeland DC, Kendal North: Liberal Democrats 622 (46.9%, +7.5%),...

The Canadian general election of 21 September 2021, called by current Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau so voters could assess his performance during the recent coronavirus pandemic-nothing else-turned out largely to be a considerable waste of time and Canadian taxpayers' money. Mr. Trudeau's attempt to regain the parliamentary majority he and the Liberals lost in 2019 failed-he made a net gain of only one seat compared to 2019, falling 12 seats short of an overall majority. The (Canadian) Conservatives under Erin O'Toole, meanwhile, actually made a net loss of 2 seats and notably all but two of their losses were in Alberta (the only landlocked province in Canada, and also their strongest province) and British Columbia (their weakest province and the only Canadian province with a Pacific coastline). The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, made a net gain of 1 seat, with their only 2 losses involving ridings where the incumbent was retiring; that said Nunavut wa...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 16 September 2021 were as follows: Ealing LBC, Hobbayne: Labour 1,617 (52.2%, +1.1%), Conservative 865 (27.9%, +8.2%), Green 362 (11.7%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 207 (6.7%, +0.3%), TUSC 48 (1.5%). [Duma Polska and an Independent did not stand] Malvern Hills DC, Tenbury: Independent (Bruton) 481 (55.9%), Conservative 269 (31.3%), Labour 78 (9.1%), Liberal Democrats 32 (3.7%). Independent gain from Conservative; Conservatives were unopposed in 2019. Middlesbrough UA, Ladgate: Independent (Grainge) 362 (34.8%), Conservative 315 (30.3%, -9.8%), Labour 226 (21.7%, -38.2%), Independent (Platt) 121 (11.6%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.3%), Independent (Hoban) 3 (0.3%). Independent gain from Labour. Sheffield MBC, Firth Park: Labour 1,091 (40.2%, -16.5%), Liberal Democrats 1,050 (38.7%, +34.1%), Conservative 258 (9.5%, -14.7%), Green 162 (6.0%, -3.8%), Independent (Worrall) 155 (5.7%). All changes are since May. The Independent win in ...

  Yesterday's Norwegian parliamentary election of 2021 marked a surprising defeat for the Conservative (Hoyre)-led coalition (with the Liberals and Christian Democrats as coalition partners, with the Progress Party having withdrawn from it in 2020) of Erna Solberg, and just four months ago the Conservatives were about to displace Labour (Arbeitpartiet) as the largest party in the Storting, Norway's parliament. Instead it was Jonas Gahr Store, leader of Labour, and also the other opposition parties (Centre, Socialist Left, the Greens, and the Red Party), who emerged triumphant in this election. The Conservatives lost 9 seats, and the Progress Party's withdrawal from Mrs Solberg's coalition did them no favours either, as they lost 6 seats and dropped to 4th place behind the Centre Party. The Liberals fared surprisingly well despite still being in the governing coalition-contrary to expectations they stayed above the 4% threshold required for compensatory list seats and ev...

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of September 2021 (2 and 9 September 2021) were as follows: (02/09/2021): Calerdale MBC, Park: Labour 1,980 (82.9%, -4.3%), Conservative 212 (8.9%, +2.2%), Green 137 (5.7%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 60 (2.5%, +0.3%). All changes are since 2019. Calerdale MBC, Ryburn: Conservative 1,188 (53.6%, +25.4%), Labour 798 (36.0%, +24.8%), Green 163 (7.4%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 66 (3.0%, -0.9%). Conservative gain from Independent; all changes are since 2019. Cheshire East UA, Wilmslow Dean Row: Residents of Wilmslow 447 (50.7%, -18.7%), Conservative 354 (40.2%, +9.6%), Liberal Democrats 46 (5.2%), Green 34 (3.9%).  (09/09/2021): Newcastle-upon-Tyne MBC, Castle: Liberal Democrats 1,306 (42.5%, -5.9%), Labour 773 (25.1%, -6.0%), Conservative 657 (21.4%, +6.8%), Green 250 (8.1%, -0.2%), North East Party 89 (2.9%). [No Independent candidates this time; the Independent in May was the North East Party candidate ...