My analysis of British local by-elections from 26 August 2021

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 26 August 2021 were as follows:

Cumbria CC, Corby & Hayton: Liberal Democrats 857 (71.0%, +60.8%), Conservative 350 (29.0%, -8.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent; all changes are since 2017. [No Independent or Green candidates this time]

Medway UA, Princes Park: Conservative 961 (67.4%, +19.0%), Labour 313 (21.9%, -4.5%), Green 52 (3.6%), Independent (Durcan) 51 (3.6%), Liberal Democrats 49 (3.4%).

Medway UA, Strood North: Labour 913 (37.1%, +6.6%), Conservative 728 (29.5%, -1.9%), Green 565 (23.0%, +9.8%), Independent (Spalding) 216 (8.8%), Liberal Democrats 39 (1.6%). Labour gain from Conservative.

Newport UA, Graig: Conservative 610 (50.2%, +3.4%), Labour 534 (44.0%, +7.0%), Liberal Democrats 71 (5.8%, -3.2%). [Greens did not stand]

This week marks the first Labour gain from the Conservatives since the May 2021 Super Thursday elections, and even more remarkably it was in the Greens' best ward in Medway. The Greens' campaigning in Strood North certainly ensured the Liberal Democrats made no impact in this by-election, but despite their best efforts they still finished third. Also of note is the Medway Independents' Chris Spalding, whose 216 votes were noticeably higher than Labour's winning margin of 185 votes, although some of his would be supporters voted Green as well. This result is particularly remarkable when the Conservatives managed an 11.2% swing from Labour in nearby Princes Park; although Princes Park is a safely Conservative ward that result nevertheless shows that Labour is still failing to reconnect with aspirational working-class/lower middle-class voters.

Meanwhile, the spectacular Liberal Democrat gain in Cumbria, where there is a precarious power balance on Cumbria County Council, is attributable to voters for a previous independent, who retired due to ill health and would likely have retired in May had Cumbria County Council's elections this year not been cancelled (Cumbria CC is set for abolition in 2023, along with all underlying districts) flocking to the Liberal Democrats, in addition to a backlash against plans to unitarise Cumbria. 

The Greens' absence from the Graig by-election in Newport surprisingly did nothing to help Labour or the Liberal Democrats, with the swing against the Conservatives being just 1.8% and the Liberal Democrats being tactically squeezed by Labour, although since this ward's creation in 2004 the Conservatives have maintained consistently high strength in this affluent suburban ward, which is popular for Cardiff commuters and those relying on the M4.

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