My analysis of British local by-elections from 19 August 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place on 19 August 2021 were as follows:

Aberdeenshire UA, Mid Formartine (1st preferences): Conservative 1,480 (45.7%, +11.1%) , SNP 1,205 (37.2%, +11.4%), Liberal Democrats 412 (12.7%, +3.3%), Green 144 (4.4%) Conservative gain from SNP at stage 3. [No Independents stood this time].

Ashford DC, Downs North: Green 273 (51.8%, +28.3%), Conservative 239 (45.4%, -2.1%), Liberal Democrats 15 (2.8%, -15.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

Dover DC, Sandwich: Conservative 721 (51.6%, +17.1%), Liberal Democrats 676 (48.4%, +33.8%). [Labour, Greens and an Independent did not stand]

East Yorkshire UA, East Wolds & Coastal: Conservative 1190 (54.0%, -2.3%), Labour 447 (20.3%, +6.0%), Yorkshire Party 347 (15.7%), Green 142 (6.4%, -23.0%), Liberal Democrats 79 (3.6%).

Ribble Valley DC, Littlemore: Liberal Democrats 281 (49.0%, -8.9%), Conservative 216 (37.7%, +16.2%), Labour 59 (10.3%, -9.6%), Green 17 (3.0%). 

Ribble Valley DC, Primrose: Liberal Democrats 200 (43.9%, -17.1%), Conservative 119 (26.1%, +10.7%), Labour 109 (23.9%, +0.3%), Green 28 (6.1%).

Rutland UA, Oakham South: Liberal Democrats 886 (67.8%, +6.3%), Conservative 420 (32.2%, -6.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Wiltshire PCC by-election: Phillip Wilkinson (Conservative) 32,564 (36.0%), Mike Rees (Independent) 25,172 (27.8%), Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrats) 17,966 (19.8%), Junab Ali (Labour) 12,971 (14.3%), Julian Malins (Reform UK) 1,859 (2.1%). In the second round, Phillip Wilkinson was elected on second preferences by a margin of 52% to 48% over Mike Rees.

The first of these by-elections follows a trend where Independents who stood in the last Scottish local elections of 2017 are often standing aside in by-elections where both the Conservatives and the SNP are competitive, usually to the Conservatives' benefit as proved to be the case here, and indeed rural areas with a tradition of electing independents lean towards unionism and were considerably less pro-Remain than all the Scottish cities.

In Ashford, the Greens being able to establish themselves as the most credible opposition to the Conservatives allowed them to tactically squeeze the Liberal Democrats to win the seat from the Conservatives, even with low turnouts at this time of year usually favouring the Conservatives. In many rural wards, especially south of the Wash, it is mainly a case of "Conservative vs. most credible non-Conservative candidate", which was also clear in the Sandwich and Oakham South by-elections (where the Liberal Democrats were the only opposition to the Conservatives in each case) although in this case the nonconformist tradition of some of the villages in this ward also helped the Green Party here. The reverse happened in East Wolds & Coastal in East Yorkshire, where the Yorkshire Party's entry caused considerable damage to the Green vote; the Yorkshire Party's following is growing substantially in rural Yorkshire.

In the Ribble Valley by-elections, both taking place in the district's largest town, Clitheroe, both the successful Liberal Democrats slipped back substantially, which is attributable not only to the low summer turnout factor but also a general decline in the Liberal Democrats' fortunes north of the Wash outside well-heeled, highly educated, and noticeably tourist-friendly towns such as Harrogate and Kendal. 

Lastly, the Wiltshire Police & Crime Commissioner by-election, technically a rerun after the initially elected Conservative candidate, Jonathan Seed, was found to be ineligible due to two prior motoring convictions, proved to be a closer run than most of the PCC contests that took place in May, due to ex-police officer Mike Rees gaining considerable traction as an Independent. In fact he only narrowly failed to gain the post from the Conservatives, primarily due to typical voter apathy in August. The fact that the Greens' May 2021 candidate, Brig Oubridge, did not stand in this PCC by-election did not help the Liberal Democrats' case as election results in the west of England would usually have you believe, and undoubtedly many voters who could not vote Green in this by-election either stayed at home, as in fact 5/6 of all Wiltshire voters did in this by-election, or supported Mr Rees believing he had a better chance of defeating the Conservatives.

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