My analysis of British local by-elections from 19 August 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place on 19 August 2021 were as follows:

Aberdeenshire UA, Mid Formartine (1st preferences): Conservative 1,480 (45.7%, +11.1%) , SNP 1,205 (37.2%, +11.4%), Liberal Democrats 412 (12.7%, +3.3%), Green 144 (4.4%) Conservative gain from SNP at stage 3. [No Independents stood this time].

Ashford DC, Downs North: Green 273 (51.8%, +28.3%), Conservative 239 (45.4%, -2.1%), Liberal Democrats 15 (2.8%, -15.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand]

Dover DC, Sandwich: Conservative 721 (51.6%, +17.1%), Liberal Democrats 676 (48.4%, +33.8%). [Labour, Greens and an Independent did not stand]

East Yorkshire UA, East Wolds & Coastal: Conservative 1190 (54.0%, -2.3%), Labour 447 (20.3%, +6.0%), Yorkshire Party 347 (15.7%), Green 142 (6.4%, -23.0%), Liberal Democrats 79 (3.6%).

Ribble Valley DC, Littlemore: Liberal Democrats 281 (49.0%, -8.9%), Conservative 216 (37.7%, +16.2%), Labour 59 (10.3%, -9.6%), Green 17 (3.0%). 

Ribble Valley DC, Primrose: Liberal Democrats 200 (43.9%, -17.1%), Conservative 119 (26.1%, +10.7%), Labour 109 (23.9%, +0.3%), Green 28 (6.1%).

Rutland UA, Oakham South: Liberal Democrats 886 (67.8%, +6.3%), Conservative 420 (32.2%, -6.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Wiltshire PCC by-election: Phillip Wilkinson (Conservative) 32,564 (36.0%), Mike Rees (Independent) 25,172 (27.8%), Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrats) 17,966 (19.8%), Junab Ali (Labour) 12,971 (14.3%), Julian Malins (Reform UK) 1,859 (2.1%). In the second round, Phillip Wilkinson was elected on second preferences by a margin of 52% to 48% over Mike Rees.

The first of these by-elections follows a trend where Independents who stood in the last Scottish local elections of 2017 are often standing aside in by-elections where both the Conservatives and the SNP are competitive, usually to the Conservatives' benefit as proved to be the case here, and indeed rural areas with a tradition of electing independents lean towards unionism and were considerably less pro-Remain than all the Scottish cities.

In Ashford, the Greens being able to establish themselves as the most credible opposition to the Conservatives allowed them to tactically squeeze the Liberal Democrats to win the seat from the Conservatives, even with low turnouts at this time of year usually favouring the Conservatives. In many rural wards, especially south of the Wash, it is mainly a case of "Conservative vs. most credible non-Conservative candidate", which was also clear in the Sandwich and Oakham South by-elections (where the Liberal Democrats were the only opposition to the Conservatives in each case) although in this case the nonconformist tradition of some of the villages in this ward also helped the Green Party here. The reverse happened in East Wolds & Coastal in East Yorkshire, where the Yorkshire Party's entry caused considerable damage to the Green vote; the Yorkshire Party's following is growing substantially in rural Yorkshire.

In the Ribble Valley by-elections, both taking place in the district's largest town, Clitheroe, both the successful Liberal Democrats slipped back substantially, which is attributable not only to the low summer turnout factor but also a general decline in the Liberal Democrats' fortunes north of the Wash outside well-heeled, highly educated, and noticeably tourist-friendly towns such as Harrogate and Kendal. 

Lastly, the Wiltshire Police & Crime Commissioner by-election, technically a rerun after the initially elected Conservative candidate, Jonathan Seed, was found to be ineligible due to two prior motoring convictions, proved to be a closer run than most of the PCC contests that took place in May, due to ex-police officer Mike Rees gaining considerable traction as an Independent. In fact he only narrowly failed to gain the post from the Conservatives, primarily due to typical voter apathy in August. The fact that the Greens' May 2021 candidate, Brig Oubridge, did not stand in this PCC by-election did not help the Liberal Democrats' case as election results in the west of England would usually have you believe, and undoubtedly many voters who could not vote Green in this by-election either stayed at home, as in fact 5/6 of all Wiltshire voters did in this by-election, or supported Mr Rees believing he had a better chance of defeating the Conservatives.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian
Read more

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc
Read more

My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly. The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the R
Read more