My analysis of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of August 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of August 2021 were as follows:

(5/8/21):

West Lothian UA, East Livingstone & East Calder (1st preference votes): SNP 1890 (42.5%, +1.7%), Conservative 1085 (24.4%, +2.4%), Labour 969 (21.8%, -9.1%), Green 336 (7.6%, +4.0%), Liberal Democrats 118 (2.7%, -0.0%), Independence for Scotland 47 (1.1%). SNP gain from Labour at stage 4.

(12/8/21):

East Suffolk DC, Orwell & Villages: Conservative 873 (45.9%, +11.2%), Liberal Democrats 800 (42.0%), Labour 230 (12.1%, -1.5%), [No Independent or Green candidates this time]

Highland UA, Inverness West (1st preference votes): SNP 718 (33.7%, +4.4%), Liberal Democrats 678 (31.8%, +4.2%), Conservative 293 (13.7%, +1.8%), Independent 230 (10.8%), Green 159 (7.5%), Independence for Scotland 42 (2.0%), Libertarian 11 (0.5%). Liberal Democrats gain from Independent at stage 5. [Other Independents and Labour did not stand]

Highland UA, Wick & East Caithness (1st preferences votes): Liberal Democrats 657 (27.3%, +23.6%), Independent (Fernie) 622 (25.8%, +18.8%), SNP 593 (24.6%, +12.6%), Conservative 523 (21.7%, +7.8%), Libertarian 16 (0.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent at stage 4. [Other Independents and Labour did not stand]

North Ayrshire & Arran UA, Dalry & West Kilbride (1st preference votes): Conservative 2016 (53.5%, +31.3%), SNP 1292 (34.3%, +10.5%), Labour 305 (8.1%, -0.3%), Liberal Democrats 58 (1.5%), Socialist Labour 57 (1.5%), Independent (Willis) 42 (1.1%, +0.6%). Conservative gain from SNP at stage 1. [Other Independents did not stand].

South Lakeland DC, Grange: Liberal Democrats 1336 (66.2%, +20.2%), Conservative 541 (26.8%, -13.6%), Green 85 (4.2%, -1.9%), Labour 56 (2.8%, -4.7%). All changes are since May 2018.

Tower Hamlets LBC, Weavers: Aspire 1204 (46.5%, +30.3%), Labour 742 (28.6%, -22.0%), Conservative 360 (13.9%, +7.5%), Green 205 (7.9%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (1.9%, -4.3%), TUSC 30 (1.2%). Aspire gain from Labour. [PATH and Renew did not stand]

This week showed clear examples of unionist tactical voting against the SNP; despite the SNP increasing their vote share in all three Scottish local by-elections they did not win any of them, and in fact lost the by-election in Dalry & West Kilbride when voters who would otherwise have voted for Independent candidates voted Conservative en masse to keep the SNP out, and spectacularly as well. Likewise, Independent transfers helped secure Liberal Democrat wins instead of SNP wins in the Highlands, one of the last redoubts of traditional liberal strength in Scotland. This did not feature in the East Livingstone & East Calder by-election, won easily by the SNP.

Meanwhile, in England, the Liberal Democrats made considerable advances in both the by-elections that took place in small towns which not only have some amount of tourist attraction but which are within commuting distance of major towns/cities as well. Given the strong desire from commuters for peaceful yet accessible towns the swings to the Liberal Democrats are not surprising regarding either Orwell & Villages or Grange, although in the former's case the lack of a Green Party candidate undoubtedly proved helpful.

The biggest surprise of this week's by-elections was Aspire's (Aspire being one of the groups that arose after the collapse of Tower Hamlets First) gain of Weavers from Labour on a 26.1% swing, although the winning Aspire candidate, Kabir Ahmed, had been a Labour councillor and later a THF councillor for the same ward from 2010 to 2018, so his personal recognition gave him a critical advantage even though in 2018 Aspire finished a distant second in that ward. The absence of the other post-THF party, People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets (PATH), also proved vital to Aspire's gain. The absence of pro-EU party Renew did not help the Liberal Democrats, who were lucky to finish ahead of TUSC, but instead it helped the Green Party weather the tactical squeeze.


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