Election predictions for 2021: districts, boroughs, metropolitan boroughs and unitaries

 Alongside the 2021 county council elections, numerous authorities whose elections were delayed from May 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, alongside the Metropolitan Borough of Doncaster which holds its full council elections during the county council election cycle, will be up for election this year, making 6 May 2021 the busiest local election day in British history. 

Of the unitary authority elections happening this year (outside unitarised counties), Bristol's will be the most competitive and most prominent, especially with the Bristol Region Mayoral election taking place alongside it (which also involves most of the former county of Avon) and the fact it is holding full council elections, alongside Halton, Hartlepool, Warrington, and the two new authorities of North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire which replace Northamptonshire County Council and all its districts. (15 other unitary authorities which do not normally hold elections in county council election years are electing by thirds this year). As for the metropolitan boroughs, the aftermath of Brexit will play a crucial role in the four Black Country boroughs of Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton, not to mention the northern boroughs of Greater Manchester and all the metropolitan boroughs in Yorkshire.

With so many elections and so many candidates, how will it all turn out? Here is what I predict (NB: only authorities with a realistic chance of changing hands are noted here):

Labour hold: Amber Valley, Calderdale, Doncaster, Kirklees, Oxford, Plymouth, Rossendale, Rotherham, Trafford.

Labour lose to NOC: Bristol, Sheffield.

Labour gain from NOC: Wirral.

Conservative hold: North East Lincolnshire.

Conservative lose to NOC: Adur, Solihull, Swindon, Worthing.

Conservative gain from NOC: Basildon, Basingstoke & Deane (currently under NOC due to formation of Basingstoke & Deane Independents), Bolton, Dudley, Nuneaton, Pendle, Thurrock.

Conservative win: North Northamptonshire, West Northamptonshire (new authorities)

Liberal Democrat hold: Mole Valley.

NOC hold: Burnley, Cannock Chase, Derby, Elmbridge, North Hertfordshire, Peterborough, Southend, Stroud, Welwyn Hatfield, Worcester.

Comments

  1. Alan Story3 March 2021 at 07:23

    Interesting Alan. If your predictions prove to be true, what would that do to Starmer's reputation? Alan S

    ReplyDelete

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