The Baden-Wurttenberg and Rhineland-Palatinate state elections 2021: Die Grune Wave continuen

The Baden-Wurttenberg and Rhineland-Palatine Landtag elections that took place yesterday in Germany were both marked by one common factor-the Green wave continuing to wash over the land.

The Greens are already the senior coalition partner in Baden-Wurttenberg under Winfried Kretschmann, but there they set a new record by winning so many seats at single member constituency level that for the first time they did not win any list seats; furthermore an extra 11 overhang seats had to be added. They won 58 seats, easily enough to keep them in power, and on an increase of just 2.3%; their junior coalition partners, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) saw their vote share drop by 2.9% but their seat total remained the same as in 2016 (42 seats) due to the creation of those extra overhang seats. It is clear that Herr Kretschmann's moderate green stance warms over moderate CDU voters relatively easily, especially as climate change becomes such a critical issue in politics around the world. 

The Social Democrats (SPD), who have never been in power at Landtag level in Baden-Wurttenberg since the merger of the two component states in 1952, meanwhile continued an inexorable decline as elsewhere in Germany although since they polled 11% (compared to 12.7% in 2016), it is slowing down somewhat, having lost over 40% of its 2011 vote in 2016. This time it may become a junior partner if Herr Kretschmann opts for a traffic light coalition (i.e. Greens, SPD, and FDP) although this is unlikely at present. The Free Democrats (FDP) surprisingly managed to increase their vote to 10.5%, gaining them 6 seats for a total of 18, even though with the Green wave rolling over Germany and the general decline of classical liberalism they have been struggling considerably. It was the Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD) that suffered the most substantial loss in this state election, dropping to 9.7% and losing 5 seats. This happened not only because of minor splits and a donation scandal involving the AfD three years ago (this involved accepting large donations from donors in non-EU countries, which is prohibited by German federal law) but also because Britain's experience of having left the EU and the subsequent consequences has damaged the cause of Euroscepticism in Germany considerably.

Baden-Wurttenberg is Die Linke's second weakest Land (Bavaria is their weakest) and once again they failed to enter the Landtag, their vote share increasing to just 3.6%. The Free Voters also polled poorly, with just 3% in a traditionally conservative Land, once again thanks to Herr Kretschmann's excellent ability to win over moderate CDU voters. Fittingly, the satirical Die PARTEI (which usually performs best in areas where the Greens poll best in Germany, as shown in Berlin in particular) was the only other party to poll more than 1% in this election, with the Climate List (a split from the Baden-Wurttenberg Greens) notably failing to make any noticeable impact with 0.9%, and the Pirate Party fading even more into obscurity with 0.1% of the vote. Due to the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, which in Germany is being controlled relatively well, turnout dropped to just 63.8%, although in both 2001 and 2006 turnout was even lower in those Baden-Wurttenberg state elections.

The Green surge also made itself in Rhineland-Palatinate, although they did not match their 17-seat high of 2011. Rather they won 10 seats, although this did include one SMC, Mainz I (read: Mainz Central), and they finished third with 9.3%. They were the only party other than the SPD and CDU to win any SMCs in this Rhineland-Palatinate Landtag election. Both the SPD and CDU lost votes, although the CDU was hit harder by the rise of the Free Voters of Rhineland-Palatinate, who entered the Landtag for the first time with 5.3% of the vote and 6 seats, although in no SMC did they finish higher than a distant third. The CDU lost 4 seats, dropping to 31, whilst the SPD stayed on 39 with its vote share dropping only by 0.5%, a testament to the popularity of its Minister-President Malu Dreyer and highlighted by how many small town SMCs the SPD managed to hold in Rhineland-Palatinate (it only lost one SMC to the CDU in fact) despite the Green surge cutting into their vote. The FDP, meanwhile, lost one seat, partly due to the effects of the Green surge, and they had few standout results besides Gemmersheim where they polled 11.8% at SMC level. Like in Baden-Wurttenberg, the AfD was dealt a significant blow in this election, dropping from 14 seats to nine but despite this they finished fourth overall. 

Rhineland-Palatinate is not good territory for Die Linke any more than Baden-Wurttenberg is, and in fact their vote share dropped slightly to 2.5% here. Neither the Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) nor the Climate List made it into the Landtag, polling just 1.7% and 0.7% respectively, but their impact was noticeable nevertheless. The Tierschutzpartei has been more successful in rural areas where the Greens are traditionally weaker, especially with notable policy overlaps between the two. The Rhineland-Palatinate Climate List, meanwhile, almost cost the Greens their win of Mainz I; the Greens won it from the SPD by just 177 votes but the Climate List's candidate polled 1,777 votes in that SMC, more than 10 times the Green majority achieved. The Ecological Democratic Party (ODP)'s impact was rather insignificant by comparison, although they polled surprisingly well in Mainz (and notably 982 votes in Mainz I, more than 5 1/2 times the narrow Green majority). They serve an important reminder that green political activists anywhere must do more to appeal to green-minded conservatives, must not lose sight of their goals and must keep core green values fundamentally at the heart of their politics. Green politics can, and needs to be, a universal and classless movement. Of the other parties that competed, the Pirate Party finished bottom, lucky to achieve 0.5% of the vote. As with Baden-Wurttenberg, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic was primarily responsible for the turnout decrease, this time from 70.4% to 64.4%. As it stands, the traffic light coalition of SDP-FDP-Greens is set to continue in Rhineland-Palatinate, given Frau Dreyer's opposition to grand coalitions (i.e. CDU-SPD partnerships like that in the Bundestag).