On the British Columbian provincial election of 2020

Five days ago, the early British Columbian provincial election of 2020, which should not have been called that early given that the coronavirus pandemic is still ongoing, resulted in a landslide for the New Democratic Party, Canada's answer to the Labour Party.

Even though the NDP were the party to call the early election, having only had a minority of seats and relying on the Greens for confidence and supply, they benefitted surprisingly well. The NDP gained 14 seats, 13 from the Liberals and one from the Greens; as it happened the provincial NDP MP who gained the seat of Oak Bay-Gordon Head from the Greens, following the retirement of former BC Greens leader Andrew Weaver (who left the BC Green caucus earlier this year) was Murray Rankin, who represented Victoria in the Canadian House of Commons; Mr Rankin was almost defeated by the Greens the first time he stood (in the Victoria by-election of 2012), and Victoria remains a top target for the Canadian Greens. In compensation the Greens won the provincial riding of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky from the Liberals. The Liberals lost 14 seats without gaining any in return, although they retained their dominance in much of rural British Columbia in the general absence of a serious challenge by the BC Conservatives. They once again won all the ridings in the Thompson-Cariboo area and most of the ridings in Northern BC. Their losses were generally in Richmond and in the Fraser Valley area, although arguably many Liberal voters would also have stayed at home due to the coronavirus pandemic, which hits turnout harder in cities than in the countryside.

British Columbia is by far the Canadian Greens' strongest province; two of their MPs represent ridings in British Columbia and it has had the strongest Green vote provincially for two decades. However, the Greens only won 3 seats, the same number they won in 2017, and partly due to only fielding 74 candidates this year compared to 83, their vote share actually fell by 1.54%. As well as holding Saanich North & the Islands with an increased majority as well as Cowichan Valley (held by their leader, Sonia Furstenau) they did achieve good second places in both Nanaimo provincial ridings, on the back of their by-election win and subsequent general election hold of Nanaimo-Ladysmith, but made little progress in the two Victoria provincial ridings (Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria-Swan Lake). In fact the closest second place finish they had was in Nelson-Creston. Since they are stronger in NDP-held ridings than in Liberal-held ridings, however, they stand to make good gains once the NDP is on the wane in British Columbia.

The British Columbian Conservatives made some serious challenges in their weakest province in Canada but once again won no seats; in fact they have not won any provincial ridings in British Columbia since 1975. However, they did finish a good second in both Peace River ridings (normally safe Liberal territory), polling over 30% in each, as well as finishing third in three of the Fraser Valley ridings. Both of the Peace River ridings were also amongst the last 7 seats held by the Social Credit Party, once dominant in British Columbian politics but now long gone. This gives them a good chance to make a return to the British Columbian parliament during this decade. The Christian Heritage Party, despite only fielding five candidates, achieved some respectable results in the provincial ridings in which they stood, notably Stikine and Abbotsford South. Of the Independent candidates, Jason Lum achieved the best result, finishing a close third in Chillawack Kent with 24.6% of the vote and only 1,357 votes behind the NDP victor, Kelli Paddon. The wooden spoon of this provincial election goes to the British Columbian Communist Party, which polled only 517 votes amongst its five candidates and three of them polled fewer than 100 votes in their ridings; in fact Walt Parsons in Victoria-Swan Lake polled the lowest votes (62) of any candidate in this British Columbian Provincial election.

Unsurprisingly, the factors of the coronavirus pandemic combined with an early election depressed turnout, which dropped heavily from 61.2% to just 40%, and in several rural ridings fewer than 10,000 people bothered to vote. John Horgan will continue as British Columbian Premier without the need for confidence and supply from another party this time, but it must be noted that Canadian politics is even more fluid at a provincial level than at a federal level, and that sitting premiers losing their own ridings is not uncommon.