On the 2020 Viennese state election

 Yesterday, the state election in the Austrian capital, Vienna, took place, which featured a rather sensational result. The Lithuanian parliamentary election also took place the same day, but as the second round of constituency voting in Lithuania (which uses parallel voting) will not conclude until 25 October, I cannot report on it yet.

In Vienna, the Freedom Party of Austria endured its worst ever result in an Austrian state election, falling to 7.7% of the vote and an embarassing fifth place behind NEOS. This is first time the FPO have finished fifth in any Austrian election at state or federal level. Their humiliation came about primarily as a result of the Ibiza affair last year, which resulted in the resignation of Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache (who subsequently formed his own party, Team HC Strache-Alliance for Austria for this election) and the early Austrian parliamentary election of 2019. On current opinion polls in Austria FPO is now languishing in fourth place behind the Greens, who are in coalition with the OVP (Austrian People's Party) at federal level.

Unsurprisingly given the large number of federal government workers in Vienna, who like middle-class public sector workers in Britain are more inclined towards social democratic parties, the SPO topped the poll in Vienna although they only increased their seat total to 47, not enough for an outright majority. The SPO (Social Democratic Party of Austria) have dominated state elections in Vienna since the end of World War II but there is a limit to their support, especially with the Greens' support base growing year by year, as well as that of NEOS amongst graduates, which unsurprisingly constitute a high proportion of Vienna's population. The OVP finished second mainly due to FPO's collapse, having benefitted best from it. They still only won 20 seats, less than half that of the SPO, and their support base is mainly confined to the most affluent suburbs and the wealthiest parts of old Vienna, similar to the Conservatives' base in Greater London. The Greens won 15 seats in Vienna, their highest ever, but their decision to go into coalition with the OVP at a federal level cost them support in the more radical parts of Vienna such as Mariahilf, which are intrinsically hostile to the OVP even though the Greens have clearly done well to moderate the OVP federally and ensure green policies are at the cabinet table. NEOS gained 4 seats bringing them up to 9, and by a tenth of a percent pushed the FPO into fifth place; like the Greens NEOS have been growing steadily due to Austria's education levels steadily rising, particularly in Vienna.

Unlike with most other Landtags in Austria, Vienna's election threshold is 5%, not 4% as it is federally in Austrian parliamentary elections. The aforementioned Team HC Strache-Alliance for Austria, who had acquired four defectors from the FPO prior to this election, failed to win any seats because of that higher threshold; they polled 4.32% which nevertheless exacerbated the FPO's humiliation. The extremist stances of some of its candidates undoubtedly turned off many FPO voters it had hoped to attract, especially amidst the coronavirus pandemic. The Beer Party of Austria polled surprisingly well for a joke party, with 2.05% vote and narrowly ahead of the Viennese Left (LINKS), primarily led by the Viennese branch of the Communist Party of Austria (KPO), although LINKS did poll nearly double the vote its predecessor alliance ANDAS (Austria Differently) polled in 2015. We For Florisdorf, a local residents' association in the Florisdorf suburb, was much less fortunate, losing vote share in the only district it ran a list in. The wooden spoon went to Volt Austria, part of the Euro-federalist Volt movement, which not only polled just 42 votes across all of Vienna but failed to poll even 10 votes in a single district!

As expected, the coronavirus pandemic sharply reduced turnout, even with postal voting fully ready for this Viennese election: turnout dropped to 62.7%, the lowest ever in a Viennese Landtag election, with in-person turnout not reaching 50% in any district. The SPO-Green coalition will continue and Michael Ludwig and Birgit Hebein will retain their positions as Mayor and Deputy Mayor of Vienna respectively.


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