On the first three local by-elections in Britain since March

 Although no local by-elections will be taking place in England and Wales until 2021 (Northern Ireland does not hold local by-elections, except where the vacancy concerns a councillor elected as an Independent), local by-elections have started again in Scotland. The results of these three by-elections are as follows:

(1/10/20): Orkney UA, North Isles: Independent (Heather Woodbridge*) 638 (69.9%), Labour 158 (17.3%), Independent (Stevens) 75 (8.2%), Independent (Adams) 42 (4.6%). Independent gain from another Independent.

*Ms Woodbridge is the daughter of Kevin Woodbridge, a previous Independent councillor for the ward who died in April.

(8/10/20): Eilean Siar UA, Na Hearadh agus Ceann a Deas nan Loch ("Harris and South Lewis"): Independent (Fulton) 536 (74.9%), Independent (MacDonald) 158 (22.1%), Independent (O'Donnell) 22 (3.1%). Independent gain from another Independent.

(15/10/20): Aberdeenshire UA, Ellon & District (1st preference votes): SNP 1683 (42.3%, +10.6%), Conservative 1658 (41.7%, +0.8%), Liberal Democrats 405 (10.2%, -9.5%), Labour 114 (2.9%, -4.7%), Green 112 (2.8%). SNP hold at stage 5.

In both the islands by-elections, the successful Independents both lived in the ward and thus won by a country mile, especially since council elections in Eilean Siar ("Western Isles" if you do not understand Scottish Gaelic) and Orkney (and Shetland) are still dominated by Independents, with voters still reluctant to vote for partisan candidates there as Labour's poor second finish in the North Isles by-election proved.

Things were very different in rural Aberdeenshire which like much of rural Scotland is now only competitive between the Conservatives and the SNP. An SNP squeeze on the vote of the Liberal Democrats in particular, once key challengers to the Conservatives in rural Aberdeenshire before the coalition years. proved crucial to their hold of the Ellon & District by-election. Despite the omnishambles the Conservative government has become in relation to tackling the coronavirus pandemic and regarding the rule of law, the Conservative vote share actually increased, partly due to a unionist squeeze on all other "unionist" parties contesting the by-election, with turnout reaching a remarkable 33.7%. If local by-elections were being held in England at present, even key Conservative-Liberal Democrat marginal wards would not feature a turnout that high in the present circumstances. It is clear that the Scottish Parliament is managing the COVID-19 situation in Scotland relatively well, despite warning about using "circuit breakers" (almost equivalent to the initial lockdown Britain faced in March) to contain the virus, with alcohol sales temporarily banned in the Scottish Central Belt (corresponding to the former region of Strathclyde), which explains the respectable turnout and the good SNP performance, even with the "Brexit factor" wearing off politically.

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