The Israeli election of March 2020: Yisrael Beitenu could stall things again
For the third time in less than one calendar year, Israel had a Knesset election, after yet another failure to form a government. The Basic Law of Israel required this second snap election after President Reuven Rivlin gave lawmakers until 11 December 2019 to form a government; an attempt to form a grand coalition between moderately conservative Likud and the liberal Blue & White Alliance failed due to incumbent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisting on inclusion of allied parties even though they were mathematically unnecessary for such a coalition (which would have 65 seats, a majority of 10 in the 120-seat Knesset), and furthermore Mr Netanyahu is still under indictment for alleged bribery and fraud; his trial on those charges will begin in less than a fortnight for now, especially since he withdrew his bid for immunity five weeks ago.
Likud surprisingly managed to top the poll in this Knesset election, albeit with just 36 seats, an increase of 4 from September 2019; smaller parties sympathetic to Likud made no progress and one of them, Yamina, an alliance of ultranationalist parties, lost a seat compared to the totals achieved by its component parties. Although the Blue and White Alliance stayed on 33 seats, this meant it slipped into second place leaving it in a much weaker position to break the governmental deadlock in Israel. Furthermore an alliance of social democrats and progressives, Labor-Gesher-Meretz, lost 3 seats in comparison with what the respective parties had won (as part of different alliances), partly due to reduced turnout in progressively-minded areas such as the city of Tel Aviv, leaving it with 7. As Israeli PR lists are closed lists, each of the component parties within the various alliances will be assured seats. However, the Joint List, an alliance of Arab-majority parties in Israel, increased its seat total to 15. Although it represents an increase of only 2 seats, this is critical for those supporting a two state solution for Israel and Palestine. Key governmental kingmaker Yisrael Beitenu lost a seat, bringing it down to 7, although it is still set to play the kingmaker role in the next Israeli government should another attempt by Likud and the Blue & White Alliance to form a grand coalition fail.
Alliances are becoming increasingly necessary for smaller parties to retain their foothold in the Knesset, even though the threshold for representation, 3.25%, is lower than in most of Europe. Consequently, those parties who did not join, or were unable to join, such an alliance usually polled a derisory vote or did not run at all. Of the parties who did not poll enough votes for seats in the Knesset, only Otzma Yehudit, one of the most extreme nationalist parties in Israel, polled more than 0.1% of the vote, specifically 0.42%,which represented a loss of nearly 4/5 of its September 2019 vote. The wooden spoon went to the Human Dignity party, who polled only 218 votes; Tzomet polled an even lower total of 52 but as it withdrew during the campaign to endorse Likud, it is ineligible to receive the electoral wooden spoon.
Given that less than six months elapsed between the previous Israeli election and this Israeli election, the reasons behind these small seat shifts can only be attributed to lower turnout and frustration with the continuing political deadlock. However, Mr Netanyahu is not likely to remain Israeli PM for much longer so a third snap election in Israel will likely be averted via the formation of a coalition between Likud and the Blue & White Alliance.
Likud surprisingly managed to top the poll in this Knesset election, albeit with just 36 seats, an increase of 4 from September 2019; smaller parties sympathetic to Likud made no progress and one of them, Yamina, an alliance of ultranationalist parties, lost a seat compared to the totals achieved by its component parties. Although the Blue and White Alliance stayed on 33 seats, this meant it slipped into second place leaving it in a much weaker position to break the governmental deadlock in Israel. Furthermore an alliance of social democrats and progressives, Labor-Gesher-Meretz, lost 3 seats in comparison with what the respective parties had won (as part of different alliances), partly due to reduced turnout in progressively-minded areas such as the city of Tel Aviv, leaving it with 7. As Israeli PR lists are closed lists, each of the component parties within the various alliances will be assured seats. However, the Joint List, an alliance of Arab-majority parties in Israel, increased its seat total to 15. Although it represents an increase of only 2 seats, this is critical for those supporting a two state solution for Israel and Palestine. Key governmental kingmaker Yisrael Beitenu lost a seat, bringing it down to 7, although it is still set to play the kingmaker role in the next Israeli government should another attempt by Likud and the Blue & White Alliance to form a grand coalition fail.
Alliances are becoming increasingly necessary for smaller parties to retain their foothold in the Knesset, even though the threshold for representation, 3.25%, is lower than in most of Europe. Consequently, those parties who did not join, or were unable to join, such an alliance usually polled a derisory vote or did not run at all. Of the parties who did not poll enough votes for seats in the Knesset, only Otzma Yehudit, one of the most extreme nationalist parties in Israel, polled more than 0.1% of the vote, specifically 0.42%,which represented a loss of nearly 4/5 of its September 2019 vote. The wooden spoon went to the Human Dignity party, who polled only 218 votes; Tzomet polled an even lower total of 52 but as it withdrew during the campaign to endorse Likud, it is ineligible to receive the electoral wooden spoon.
Given that less than six months elapsed between the previous Israeli election and this Israeli election, the reasons behind these small seat shifts can only be attributed to lower turnout and frustration with the continuing political deadlock. However, Mr Netanyahu is not likely to remain Israeli PM for much longer so a third snap election in Israel will likely be averted via the formation of a coalition between Likud and the Blue & White Alliance.
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