My analysis of by-elections from the week beginning 9/3/20

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the week beginning 9 March 2020 were as follows:

 (10/3/20)

 Wiltshire UA, Till & Wylye Valley: Conservative 637 (49.6%, -4.6%), Liberal Democrats 623 (48.5%, +4.4%), Labour 24 (1.9%).

 (12/3/20)

 Ashford DC, Park Farm North: Ashford Independents 247 (60.2%), Conservative 115 (28.0%, -33.4%), Labour 29 (7.1%, -12.8%), Green 11 (2.7%), Liberal Democrats 8 (2.0%, -16.7%). Ashford Independents gain from Conservative.

 Highland UA, Eilean Cheo (1st preferences): Independent (Murdo) 911 (28.5%), SNP 874 (27.3%), Liberal Democrats 698 (21.8%), Green 357 (11.6%), Conservative 314 (9.8%), Martainn Misreachd 45 (1.4%). Independent gain from another Independent at stage 5. [Some other Independents did not stand]

 South Somerset DC, Parnett: Liberal Democrats 387 (52.0%, -12.5%), Conservative 162 (21.8%, -13.7%), Independent (Ashton) 160 (21.5%), Green 35 (4.7%).

 Stratford on Avon DC, Welford on Avon: Liberal Democrats 472 (43.6%), Conservative 323 (29.9%, +8.7%), Independent (Appleton) 231 (21.3%), Labour 41 (3.8%, -1.5%), Green 15 (1.4%, -7.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent.

 This has been the Conservatives' worst week so far in local by-elections this year, and the Conservatives' lax attitude to the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak is partly responsible. Tuesday's by-election in Wiltshire is an exercise in how tactical voting can only go so far, with the "plateau effect" (first seen in the 1983 general election) proving to be a serious problem for the Liberal Democrats there. All the Labour-vote squeezing was not enough for them in Till & Wylye Valley, consisting of villages near Salisbury. 

 Local Independents (and in some places, locally known Greens) often find it easier to defeat the Conservatives in rural areas than the Liberal Democrats in practice. The by-election in Park Farm North on the outskirts of Ashford was a notable example, with the Conservatives' selection of a former member of the Ashford Independents not helping them at all. The intervention of the Ashford Independents, true to form, caused the Liberal Democrat and Green votes to plummet; occasions where the Liberal Democrats or indeed any major political party achieving fewer votes than the number of signatures needed to stand for election (i.e. 10) are rare in the extreme. Even though they did not win, local independents also polled well in Parnett near Yeovil and Welford on Avon near Stratford-upon-Avon, although in the latter case the Liberal Democrats had the advantage because Welford on Avon was in fact represented by a long-serving Liberal Democrat councillor, Peter Barnes, who in the last 5 years of his tenure sat as an Independent; Mr Barnes' death caused the by-election in question.

 With the UK Electoral Commission having recently written to Constitution Minister Chloe Smith (Conservative MP for Norwich North since 2009) recommending the postponing of this May's local elections due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, I will say now that COVID-19 will likely have a significant impact on this blog, as local by-elections may be cancelled as well. In fact, there will be no Green Party conference review this Spring as said Spring Conference has been cancelled, again due to concerns about the coronavirus outbreak (in fact, the Spring Conferences of all other significant political parties in the UK have been cancelled for the same reason).

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