A brief analysis and notice to readers from Alan's Green Thoughts

Although three of the four British local by-elections scheduled to take place yesterday were cancelled due to the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, one still went ahead regardless. The results of that by-election were as follows:

 Coventry MBC, Upper Stoke: Labour 639 (52.8%, +2.4%), Conservative 350 (28.9%, +8.6%), Green 120 (9.9%, -3.0%), Socialist Alternative 101 (8.3%). All changes are since May 2019. [UKIP did not stand]

 The absence of UKIP in this by-election proved to be a boon to the Conservatives, but not only is this ward safely Labour, so few voters were willing to come to the polling station amidst the coronavirus outbreak anyway. It therefore made no real difference in the end, and the intervention of Socialist Alternative via Jane Nellist, wife of ex-Labour MP and former Socialist councillor David Nellist, did no harm to Labour. Turnout dropped to as low as 9% because of the coronavirus outbreak, although for the psephological record it must be noted that two local by-elections I have analysed in the past, both in student-dominated wards have had turnouts of 7% and 8% respectively.

 Meanwhile over a fortnight ago, the Guyanese held their general election, although both the main alliances stayed on the same seat totals as before, with 33 for the Alliance for Change and 32 for the People's Progressive Party respectively, even though both lost some votes; however no other party was able to poll even 1% of the votes cast, meaning only the two aforementioned parties will have seats in the National Assembly. A partial recount ordered by the Guyanese Supreme Court in Region Four made no difference to the overall result.

 With local by-elections set to be postponed until 2021 under the Coronavirus Bill (several of next week's by-elections have already been postponed, in addition to local elections in May, even though the necessary legislation is not technically in place yet), regular electoral analyses will simply not be able to take place for a while. I therefore give notice to readers of this blog that:

 1. Weekly by-election analyses are postponed until further notice.
2. Elections around the world will be analysed but only if they are not postponed, which in the circumstances of COVID-19 they almost certainly will be.
3. This blog will be diverted to other topics in the meantime.

 Let us stay strong and be positive, everyone.

 Alan.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more