A brief analysis and notice to readers from Alan's Green Thoughts

Although three of the four British local by-elections scheduled to take place yesterday were cancelled due to the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, one still went ahead regardless. The results of that by-election were as follows:

 Coventry MBC, Upper Stoke: Labour 639 (52.8%, +2.4%), Conservative 350 (28.9%, +8.6%), Green 120 (9.9%, -3.0%), Socialist Alternative 101 (8.3%). All changes are since May 2019. [UKIP did not stand]

 The absence of UKIP in this by-election proved to be a boon to the Conservatives, but not only is this ward safely Labour, so few voters were willing to come to the polling station amidst the coronavirus outbreak anyway. It therefore made no real difference in the end, and the intervention of Socialist Alternative via Jane Nellist, wife of ex-Labour MP and former Socialist councillor David Nellist, did no harm to Labour. Turnout dropped to as low as 9% because of the coronavirus outbreak, although for the psephological record it must be noted that two local by-elections I have analysed in the past, both in student-dominated wards have had turnouts of 7% and 8% respectively.

 Meanwhile over a fortnight ago, the Guyanese held their general election, although both the main alliances stayed on the same seat totals as before, with 33 for the Alliance for Change and 32 for the People's Progressive Party respectively, even though both lost some votes; however no other party was able to poll even 1% of the votes cast, meaning only the two aforementioned parties will have seats in the National Assembly. A partial recount ordered by the Guyanese Supreme Court in Region Four made no difference to the overall result.

 With local by-elections set to be postponed until 2021 under the Coronavirus Bill (several of next week's by-elections have already been postponed, in addition to local elections in May, even though the necessary legislation is not technically in place yet), regular electoral analyses will simply not be able to take place for a while. I therefore give notice to readers of this blog that:

 1. Weekly by-election analyses are postponed until further notice.
2. Elections around the world will be analysed but only if they are not postponed, which in the circumstances of COVID-19 they almost certainly will be.
3. This blog will be diverted to other topics in the meantime.

 Let us stay strong and be positive, everyone.

 Alan.

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