My analysis of local by-elections from 8/8/19

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 8th August 2019 were as follows:

Cambridge BC, Newnham: Liberal Democrats 774 (59.5%, +16.3%), Labour 235 (18.1%, -18.1%), Green 149 (11.5%, +1.5%), Conservative 143 (11.0%, +0.2%). All changes are since May 2019.

East Northamptonshire DC, Irthlingborough Waterloo: Conservative 542 (53.1%, -2.2%), Labour 478 (46.9%, +11.6%).[BNP did not stand]

Worcester BC, Claines: Liberal Democrats 1307 (47.6%, +8.2%), Conservative 1252 (45.6%, +3.0%), Green 125 (4.6%, -3.7%), Labour 60 (2.2%, -2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Meanwhile in town council elections, not often covered on this blog, the Green Party won their first ever town council seat in the seaside town of Lyme Regis, Dorset. The Greens' potential is growing strongly in Dorset as a whole, especially in the west of that county.

The spectre of a snap general election close to the Brexit date of 31st October looms ever closer, and it was no surprise that the Liberal Democrats managed a swing of 17.2% against Labour in marginal Newnham ward, in heavily pro-Remain and intellectual Cambridge. Despite the fact the ward is a tight Liberal Democrat-Labour marginal, the Greens nevertheless managed to improve their vote share and overtake the Conservatives. The fact it was holiday season indirectly hurt Labour, given Jeremy Corbyn's strong support amongst student voters.

In East Northamptonshire, Labour's failure to gain a marginal small town ward will not bode well for them in traditional bellwether seats in the event of such a snap general election, many of which are large towns or groupings of small to medium-sized towns. Irthlingborough is located in the key marginal seat of Corby, with the Conservative-leaning East Northamptonshire parts usually proving decisive to the overall result of that seat. It is the towns, not the cities, that decide British elections.

The Liberal Democrat gain in Worcester relied on tactical voting and candidate recognition more than any other factors; Claines' demographic statistics are relatively average by Worcester standards apart from having the highest number of owner occupiers. Tactical voting is less likely to play a part in the event of an early election at present due to the vote being so fragmented, except in a few specific constituencies which clearly both locally and nationally will still only be competitive between two parties.

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